Tangle - My solutions to the border crisis

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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The problem.

Our southern border is in crisis.

I don't want to spend too much time trying to establish this fact, even though I know some people might not agree. Here is the reality, though: December was a record-breaking month for migrant encounters. Close to two million unauthorized migrants are estimated to have crossed the border undetected since Biden was inaugurated. Hundreds and hundreds of migrants continue to die in the U.S.-Mexico border region each year. Border towns are overwhelmed. Cities in the northeast are overwhelmed. Americans are understandably infuriated. The situation is dire.

Even progressive commentators understand that these huge levels of illegal migration are unsustainable and problematic. Here is progressive blogger Noah Smith articulating precisely why this is an issue:

"This is a massive problem. It’s a short-term logistical problem in terms of how to house and feed the millions pouring into the country — a task that is now straining the resources of many heavily Democratic cities. It’s a long-term fiscal problem, because these people will require heavy government support for their health care, housing, and education; this will end up coming from city and state governments, since they’re barred from federal welfare programs. And it also presents a psychological problem for Americans, because it violates their sense of sovereignty; there’s a general sense that these millions are forcing their way in, instead of being invited by the democratic will of the American people."

For a visual representation of what is happening, consider this graph on apprehensions and expulsions at the border:

Source: DHS

Between October 2022 and September 2023, half a million of the migrants that were detected were expelled under Title 42. Close to 200,000 were put into expedited removal proceedings. Around 180,000 voluntarily left to avoid being processed further, while roughly 300,000 were given humanitarian parole (that is, they were allowed to temporarily live in the United States). And 1.5 million new cases were added to the immigration court system in that fiscal year. 

This issue is not unique to the U.S. and is not exclusively caused by Biden’s border policies. There is a global surge in forced displacement and migration due to conflicts, climate change, and the pandemic. An estimated 100 million people are currently displaced, a new record, and this number was calculated before the war between Israel and Hamas started. These external factors are a big driver of the current crisis. And the southern border isn’t the totality of our immigration system. It is one big part of it, though, and it is the one we are going to focus on today.

As I write this, members of Congress are continuing to negotiate a large, bipartisan piece of immigration reform. There are rumors the details of that agreement are going to be released today, and I’ll be curious to see how they line up with what I’ve put together here. If any agreement were to become law, it'd be the first comprehensive immigration reform we've had in decades. Unfortunately, any compromise now looks unlikely, even though we have little idea what is inside the bill. 

The Biden administration's failures on the border are now running into campaign season, which means some Republicans have gone from seeing a problem to fix to seeing a problem that can be exploited for political gain. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) accidentally said the quiet part out loud recently, conceding that reaching a deal before the election is unlikely because the party doesn’t want to "undermine" Donald Trump. For his part, Trump has, for weeks, been turning his ire on Republicans for any purported deal they’re trying to make without knowing any of the details of that deal.

It is not a Democratic talking point to suggest some Republicans are about to tank this bill to hurt Biden. It's just the reality. Here is Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), one of the most staunch conservatives in the Senate, who is also at the center of these negotiations.

"It is interesting, Republicans, four months ago, would not give funding for Ukraine, for Israel and for our southern border because we demanded changes in policy. So, we actually locked arms together and said, 'We're not going to give money for this. We want a change in law,'" Lankford said. "And now, it's interesting, a few months later, when we're finally getting to the end, they're like, 'Oh, just kidding, I actually don't want a change in law because of a presidential election year.'"

This is becoming unfortunately common. Just this week, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) openly suggested voting against a bipartisan tax bill that passed the House with an overwhelming majority because it might help Biden.

“Passing a tax bill that makes the president look good — mailing out checks before the election — means he could be re-elected, and then we won't extend the 2017 tax cuts,” Grassley said.

I am not optimistic any immigration deal is going to get done, because the tides are turning against a solution in favor of electoral politics. This is the hare-brained reality of what was once the greatest deliberative body on earth (the U.S. Senate), but has now been reduced to just another cynical and ineffective political institution.

So, today, I thought I'd write about what should happen, and what I think Congress is theoretically capable of passing today if they can swallow their cynicism enough to try. This is not an attempt to "wave a magic wand" and get my wish. This is not “what would I do if I could get everything I want.” Instead, this is what an actual, realistic path forward on immigration policy could be. Not in 2025, not in 10 years, not what we wish we did a decade ago — but what it could look like right now, in this political moment, with Joe Biden in the White House, Democrats controlling the Senate, and Republicans controlling the House.

I am going to break down my proposal into three parts: "What to give Republicans," "What to give Democrats," and "What I want" — a section where I add some ideas that aren’t platform planks for either party but feel useful and are very doable.

Finally, before we jump in, I also think it is important to define what I think a successful immigration policy looks like. To me, good immigration policy does the following:

1) Keeps Americans safe and our system orderly

2) Supports a robust workforce and healthy population growth

3) Lives up to ideals our nation was founded on

Those are my goals. They should be Congress’s goals, as well. 

So, with that, let's jump in.

What to give Republicans.

To begin, let’s take a look at some things Republicans are asking for that Democrats should give them. Remember: Democrats have an upper hand here, in that they control the White House and the Senate. Republicans aren’t going to get everything they want, but there are a lot of good ideas from Republicans that Democrats should be open to, and a lot that Republicans could realistically get in a border deal.