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Proof Points: Lessons from the last recession

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By Jill Barshay

Since it seems near certain that the coronavirus pandemic is triggering a new recession right now, I thought it would be useful to recap what happened to colleges and universities during the Great Recession of 2008 to help us think through what might and might not repeat this time around.
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Key Findings 
  • In past recessions, higher education boomed. After 2008, there was a surge in college enrollment driven by older, unemployed adults. It peaked in 2010.

  • Students flocked to two-year community colleges and for-profit online schools during the last recession.

  • Federal policy subsidized grants and loans to help students pay tuition while states cut funding for higher education and tuition rose.

  • Most of these additional recession era students did not complete their degrees.

  • A new boom for higher education seems less likely now. It will depend on whether the coronavirus recession lasts longer than a year and whether students return to physical and residential campuses in the fall. Online degree programs are poised to benefit.
Lit Review 
  1. Great Recession Enrollment Trends – 2011, NSC Research Center,  Jul 14, 2011

  2. How the Great Recession Affected College Completions, NSC Blog, Nov 18, 2014

  3. College Board, Total Federal and Nonfederal Loans in 2018 Dollars by Type of Loan, 1998-99 to 2018-19, Figure 6

  4. National Center for Education Statistics, Table 303.70. Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2028.

  5. National Center for Education Statistics, Table 318.10. Degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2028-29.
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