This might have been the least interesting Super Tuesday in recent political history. In 2020, Biden locked up the nomination after a stunning comeback in South Carolina. But there was very little drama and fewer stakes this year. Biden faced token opposition, and Trump continued to dominate the Republican primary against Nikki Haley. There were only a handful of down ballot primaries of real consequence.

However, electoral results in this many states can teach us about the political environment as the general election begins. I disagree with the notion that electoral results negate the polling. In fact, they are another valuable data point to understand what’s happening and develop strategies to influence the outcome.

Here are a few takeaways from last night:

If you find the information in this post helpful, please share it with your network and post it on social media.

Share

Providing political analysis to the people trying to persuade their friends and family that this election matters is why I started this newsletter. If you want to support this work, please consider becoming a paid subscriber

1. The End of the Haley Campaign

Well, that was fun while it lasted.

Axios reports this morning that Haley will suspend her campaign later today—without endorsing Trump. The decision is logical and inevitable.

After her loss in New Hampshire, Haley’s campaign put out a memo charting a path forward through Super Tuesday that read:

We’ve heard multiple members of the press say New Hampshire is ‘the best it’s going to get’ for Nikki due to independents and unaffiliated voters being able to vote in the Republican primary. The reality is that the path through Super Tuesday includes more states than not that have this dynamic... After Super Tuesday, we will have a very good picture of where this race stands. Until then, everyone should take a deep breath.

The Haley campaign cited Virginia as a prime target. It has an open primary and a history of voting for more establishment Republicans. Trump barely won it in 2016, and only because Marco Rubio and John Kasich split the vote. She lost Virginia by about 30 points.

If Haley can’t beat Trump in Virginia she can’t beat him anywhere — other than very liberal Vermont where she won a narrow victory last night. Trump is now on the doorstep of getting the majority of delegates, and no one will stop him.

Despite only winning two contests, Haley’s campaign against Trump was not for naught. I hope she doesn’t bow to pressure and endorse Trump, but even if she does, her campaign has charted a course for Biden to win over Trump-skeptical voters.

3. Haley Voters Are a Ripe Target for Biden

Many political observers — myself included — point to the number of Haley voters who told exit pollsters that they won’t vote for Trump as a glaring warning sign.

Recently, there’s been some pushback to that notion because polls show that many of Haley’s supporters voted for Biden in 2020. The recent New York Times/Siena poll found that 48% of Haley voters voted for Biden in 2020. The assertion is that Trump was never going to get these votes anyway, or even more perniciously, Democrats are propping up the Haley effort.

Some of these Haley voters would never vote for Trump. They will certainly choose Biden over Trump, but that doesn’t mean that Haley’s campaign hasn’t exposed Trump's vulnerabilities.

First, the half of Haley supporters who voted for Trump or didn’t vote for either in 2020 still make up a significant number of votes. In Michigan last week, Haley received 300,000 votes. Biden won the state by 150,000 votes in 2020.

In Virginia, a Purple state, Haley received more than 220,000 votes. All across the country, Haley is getting enough votes that even if only a portion of her supporters are new or persuadable Trump voters, they could be decisive in a close election.

Perhaps most importantly, 76% of Haley voters in the Virginia primary won’t commit to supporting the nominee. In North Carolina, that number is 61%.

The problem for Trump is that you need more than just MAGA voters to win the presidency. 

If you know a Nikki Haley voter, they can immediately become a target for persuasion. Maybe give them a few days to process the end of her campaign.

3. Trump’s Struggles Continue

The same story that played out in the previous primaries happened again on Super Tuesday. Trump had a dominant night, winning the lion’s share of the delegates. Trump won nearly every contest by more than 20 points and even won some by 50 points. However, he struggled with moderates, Independents, college-educated voters, and those who rejected the Big Lie about the 2020 election.

According to the exit polls, in North Carolina, Trump lost moderates by 23 and voters that believe Biden won the 2020 election by 27. In Virginia, Trump tied Haley with Independents and lost voters with a college degree by 3 points. One in three Virginia primary voters think Trump is not mentally and physically fit to be president.

I’ve made this point after every primary. You may even be sick of reading it, but I think it’s important for understanding how non-MAGA voters view Trump.

These weaknesses are clearly not a problem for Trump in the primary, but they could be in a general election against Biden.

4. Minnesota Sends Biden a Warning

Joe Biden won big nationwide last night — with two notable exceptions. Biden lost American Samoa to someone named Jason Palmer. There were a total of 91 votes cast — Palmer won 51 to Biden’s 40. No idea what happened there and am too tired to care. Biden won Minnesota relatively easily, but Dean Phillips got 8% in his home state. The bigger story is that “uncommitted” won nearly 20% of the vote with about 80% of the vote counted. Minnesota has a large Muslim population, and it is yet another reminder that the divisions within the party over Gaza are significant enough to be cause for worry in a close election.

Super Tuesday is behind us. The primaries are over. The general election starts tomorrow night with the State of the Union.

For better or worse, here we go…

Share