Rarely do I ever write about just one poll finding. Typically, with polling, my advice is never to obsess over any one individual poll. Instead, focus on the overarching polling average and broader trends to better gauge the political landscape. However, the New York Times/Siena College poll holds a unique place in our political discourse. Not only is it the highest-rated pollster according to FiveThirtyEight, not necessarily guaranteeing greater accuracy, but it also holds greater influence due to its association with the world’s most influential media entity. This poll tends to significantly influence the political discourse, capturing the attention and anticipation of the political reporting community, operatives, and enthusiasts alike as they eagerly await the release of the New York Times/Siena polls.

If you’ve spent any time online this morning, you undoubtedly know another New York Times/Siena poll is upon us—and it’s not great. The Times provides the following summary of the poll:

With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.

Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

Not the best way to kick off the weekend. If you want to ignore this poll and this post and return to your previously scheduled weekend activities, I hardly blame you. You are healthier than I am. However, if you can’t stop worrying, thinking, or raging about this poll, here are some brief reflections:

1. This Is a Close, Winnable Race

Before we get into the specifics of this poll, it’s worth remembering that Trump is up by about two points in the overall polling average. Trump may have a slight advantage, but the polling points to a very close, winnable race in November. The defeatism that we hear from some folks with every piece of bad news is disconnected from the reality of American politics in a closely divided election—especially when the other candidate is dealing with a whopping 91 felony indictments...