Good morning! 🎶 Hit the road, Jack, and don’t you come back 🎶 is one of Ray Charles’ greatest ditties, but it’s not something the world’s largest-selling bourbon brand would want to hear. The Wall Street Journal reports that demand for Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7 is declining in the US, its home country, as Americans either downgrade to cheaper stuff (blame inflation) or upgrade to higher-end alternatives (blame bourbon aficionados). Parent company Brown-Forman is leaning towards premiumisation, but that still doesn’t compensate for Old No. 7’s sluggish outlook. Younger people of legal drinking age are increasingly turning to canned cocktails, and that too is a limited market; surveys reveal that Zoomers are more alcohol-averse than older generations.

🎧 The Premier League is using AI tacticians. Such use cases aren’t exclusive to football though. The Signal Daily interviews Siddhartha Datta, co-founder of Tech At Play, about how the emerging technology is changing sport, one game at a time. Also in today's episode: India’s real estate boom. Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Programming note: We are taking the day off on account of Holi. There will be no editions of The Signal newsletter and The Signal Daily podcast on March 26.

The Market Signal*

Stocks & Economy: China is preparing to allow more market access to foreign investors. At the China Development Forum, where global CEOs and business leaders mingle with Chinese policymakers, Premier Li Qiang said Beijing will work to make the country an attractive destination for investors. Foreign fund flows to China shrank 20% in the first two months of this year. 

This week will see a spate of data releases, including US new home sales, consumer sentiment, jobless claims and GDP. Several European countries will release their inflation numbers too. 

Oil and gold prices continued to firm up. 

Asian markets were largely in negative territory on Monday morning. Indian markets are closed for the festival of Holi today and will be shut for Good Friday at the end of the week as well.

INTERVIEW

In Business We Trust…

…unless a company is headquartered in India. Just 35% of over 32,000 respondents across 28 countries surveyed in the 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer expressed trust in businesses located in the country, and China too. But Indians themselves trust business the most of all major institutions. That’s followed by NGOs, government, and the media (pdf).

As with all reports, there’s plenty of fine print yet uncovered by the mainstream media. Take the diverging views of India’s low-, middle- and high-income groups towards AI. What are they? To find out and also know more about Indians’ attitudes to different spheres of innovation (healthcare and food science, for instance), head to The Core Report: Weekend Edition for this exclusive interview with Matthew Harrington, head of global operations at Edelman.

Fair disclosure: The annual Edelman Trust Barometer has been criticised for its conflict of interest. Some countries Edelman surveys are also its clients.

TECH

Will Americans Finally Embrace Android?

Probability is not possibility, but this could happen in three-five years’ time if the US Department of Justice (DOJ) emerges victorious in its landmark antitrust case against Apple. The 88-page lawsuit was filed late last week.

Apple’s walled garden isn’t the problem unto itself. What is, is a set of internal emails revealing the lengths Apple took to illegally suppress competition.

The company’s iPhone sales are flatlining in its home country as well as in China and India. Unlike the rest of the world, where Google’s Android dominates the mobile operating system market, the US is fiercely loyal to iOS (though Apple’s monopolisation doesn’t compare to Microsoft’s in the ‘90s).

Apple is also being investigated under the EU’s new digital law. Misery loves company though; Google too is facing antitrust heat in the EU and at home. The duo’s purported mobile AI partnership now seems like a futile exercise.

ENERGY

Few Takers For This Bounty

Throughout the 1990s, Geological Survey of India (GSI) scientists published reports on lithium prospects in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). But the indispensability of the metal wasn’t yet a factor in consumer electronics, leave alone green energy. Exploration wasn’t prioritised.

That changed in 2023. Once again, a GSI survey established that the same J&K region, Salal-Haimana in Reasi district, had nearly six million tonnes of lithium reserves. Exploration sprees in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Rajasthan followed as India deemed lithium the most critical mineral for “economic development and national security” in its list of 30. The Centre amended laws and offered sops to incentivise mining by the private sector.

But private participants, barring Shree Cements, which expressed interest, aren’t biting. Reuters reports that J&K is auctioning a third tranche after receiving just two bids in round one. The deadline is May 14.

The Signal

A confluence of technical complications and regional tensions are to blame.

Salal-Haimana lithium constitutes hard rock deposits, meaning refining—an industry dominated by China and one where India has no skin in the game—will be even more cost-intensive in a sector where extraction alone takes ~10 years from the time of inference.

Lithium extraction is also water-intensive. The reserves’ proximity to the Line Of Control makes them vulnerable to the Chenab water-sharing dispute between India and Pakistan. The district is already reeling from a water crisis and contamination owing to other large-scale infrastructure projects. Relocating apprehensive locals is another mountain to climb.

FYI

Tit for tat: China has issued new guidelines to phase out microprocessors made by American chipmakers Intel and AMD in government devices, Financial Times reports; it’s also looking to sideline Microsoft’s Windows operating system in favour of domestic alternatives.

Yes please: India is seeking technical assistance from the International Labour Organization to replace the minimum wage with living wage by 2025, The Economic Times reports.

Making up for a lost cause: Mining conglomerate Vedanta, which is reportedly calling off plans to demerge Hindustan Zinc, has announced a $6 billion investment pipeline for "40+ ongoing growth projects”.

Mending broken bridges: Pakistan is “seriously” considering resuming trade ties with India that were suspended in 2019, the country’s foreign minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar said.

Silence speaks: Russia observed a day of mourning for the 137 people who died and 182 who were wounded in the Isis-claimed Crocus City Hall shooting on Friday. The incident was the worst terrorist attack in Russia in decades.

THE DAILY DIGIT

~40%

The percentage of women who comprise India’s gaming population, according to a report titled ‘Robust Fundamentals to Power Continued Growth’. The figure was 20% until three years ago. (The Economic Times)

FWIW

Kernel of hope: Lush farms aren’t the first thing you associate with freezing (and volcanic) Iceland, but Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir wants to change that. One of the first things she’s working on to achieve that goal is to discourage crypto mining. Iceland’s abundance of hydroelectric power made it a haven for Bitcoin miners, but their data centres guzzle so much energy that the country experienced an electricity shortage during peak winter. Local fish-processing units had to turn to dirty power as a result, which is a no-no for Jakobsdóttir. Since food security is her top priority, the PM has greenlit farm-funding initiatives, chief among which is to achieve self-sufficiency in corn production. We’re all for this kind of corniness.