Good morning! ChatGPT is making you forgetful. A recent study of hundreds of college-going students found that those who heavily used ChatGPT for assignments tend to procrastinate more. They also reported poor memory and lower grades, Futurism reports. And we thought smartphones were the ultimate brain drainers. It’s only a matter of time before chatbot de-addiction centres pop up. 

🎧 Indian metro networks aren’t getting enough passengers. Also in today's episode: The long-drawn battle between brother-sister duo Baba Kalyani and Sugandha Hiremath has reached a Pune court. Bharat Forge Chairman and MD Baba Kalyani’s niece and nephew are seeking a total partition of the Kalyani family’s assets. What is at the heart of this dispute? Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Dinesh Narayanan, Soumya Gupta, and Anup Semwal also contributed to today’s edition.

The Market Signal*

Stocks & Economy: JPMorgan has warned that the “momentum trade” could end any time, and traders might find themselves caught unawares. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the bank’s chief global equity strategist, said almost everything from a Fed rate cut to a victory for Donald Trump were already priced in and one big trader unwinding will trip the dominoes. 

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, meanwhile, said recent inflation data was disappointing enough for the Fed to hold off rate cuts until later. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping met top US business leaders and urged them to invest in his country.

US stocks rallied again on Wednesday while Japanese stocks fell on Thursday morning after hitting record highs.

India will kick-off same-day settlement in select stocks from today. The BSE released a list of 25 stocks that will be eligible for T+0 settlement. Gift Nifty indicates a flat to negative start.

ENERGY

Carbon Downshift To Burn Revenue Hole

India’s shift towards a low-carbon economy will come at a significant cost to the government’s revenue. 

India’s petrol and diesel consumption is a major revenue source for both the central and state governments. The price of each litre of petrol has Rs 19.9 central tax embedded in it. Together, the Centre and states earned about Rs 7.5 lakh crore from the oil and gas sector, Business Standard reports. 

Electrification will slowly dry up this revenue stream. In fact, the government will have to spend more as incentives and subsidies to promote EV adoption. While petrol accounts for 16% of India’s fuel consumption, diesel makes up 38%. 

Subsidies have helped a faster shift in the commercial segment, which largely depends on diesel and gas-powered vehicles. Diesel-guzzling Indian Railways is rapidly electrifying its route. Every 100 route kilometres electrified saves four million litres of diesel annually.

PODCAST

Tune in every Monday to Friday as financial journalist and host Govindraj Ethiraj gives you the most important take on the latest in business and economy.

Today, he speaks to veteran market analyst Ambareesh Baliga on midcaps and smallcaps bottoming out, and with Vanda Insights CEO Vandana Hari on where oil prices are headed next.

CORPORATE

Tata Plans A Public Party

In the 2000s, the Tata Group had its heart (and wallets) set on expanding overseas, buying Tetley, Corus, and Jaguar Land Rover. Now, the party is shifting home. 

In the next 2-3 years, the Tatas are planning to list eight group companies to capture more ‘new age’ markets such as electric vehicles and e-commerce, The Economic Times reported. 

Party people: Among the eight are Tata’s e-commerce ventures BigBasket and Tata Digital and the group’s EV firms Tata Passenger Electric Mobility and Tata Batteries. 

Fix it: Besides this, the Tata Group is restructuring its holding entity Tata Trusts. This, after the RBI said the group must comply with its rules for ‘upper layer’ non-banking finance companies, that is NBFCs that have outsize influence on the banking system. Earlier, a brokerage firm reported Tata Sons may consider a ‘mega IPO’ for itself to comply with the rules. 

SUPPLY CHAIN

Stumbling Dock

The March 26 collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore is exacerbating problems in global trade, already stressed by disruptions in two critical waterways: the Suez Canal (because of Houthi attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea) and the Panama Canal (because of a prolonged drought). Shipping traffic has been indefinitely suspended in Baltimore—a key port along the US East Coast—after container ship Dali collided into one of the bridge’s columns. Dali alone offloaded nearly 7,000 metric tonnes of consumer goods and construction machinery, almost all of it from Asia, before the accident.

Because Baltimore handles fewer containers than New York and New Jersey, disruptions are expected to be short-term and of a lesser magnitude. But higher freight rates will ensue as a result of delays and diversions. The industries hardest hit will be coal and auto.

The Signal

About 20% of US coal exports pass through Baltimore. A potential six-week blockade may not push up global prices significantly, but India may be most affected. The thermal coal the country imports from the US for power generation is routed through Baltimore.

Baltimore’s terminals are critical for auto majors and suppliers, having handled 850,000 vehicles in 2023—the most of any US port. Nearly three-quarters of these shipments were imports. Automakers, including American ones such as Ford and GM, which are rerouting shipments, forecast minimal impact. But there will be a knock-down effect: transporters and dealerships will have to scramble to receive cargo at hubs located further away.

FYI

New tracker: India plans to set up a separate unit to monitor manufacturing performance such as value-added, exports, technology used, supply chain effectiveness, labour productivity, and access to the global market, The Economic Times reports.

Pay hike: The Centre has raised wages under the rural job guarantee scheme MGNREGA by 3%-10% starting April 1.

No glitter: As gold prices reach a record high and banks reduce buying, India’s gold imports may fall by 90% this March, the lowest since the pandemic, Reuters reported.

For whom the toll tolls: India is officially ending toll gate collections on roads and highways, transport minister Nitin Gadkari said. The government will introduce a satellite-based GPS tracking system to automatically deduct toll from car owners based on their location. 

Take more: Amazon will invest $2.75 billion in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic, taking its total investment to $4 billion.

THE DAILY DIGIT

~78%

The percentage of Indians who experience job burnout, according to a UKG Workforce Institute study that surveyed 4,000 employees across 10 countries. (The Economic Times) 

FWIW

Making love babies: Think IVF, and you’d likely picture a couple who’s had trouble with conceiving naturally. But as The New York Times reports, IVF is no longer Plan B. Many wealthy couples in the US are “skipping sex and going straight to IVF”. And they’ve got their reasons. Some of them simply don’t have the time to try naturally; for others, it’s a logistical issue. Expecting a busy, busy couple to be in the same pincode during ovulation windows is too much of an ask. Still others are wary of passing down defective genes to their kids. And almost all of them don’t want the stress of baby dancing when science (and money) can whisk them to parenthood.