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The Research Pitch

April 6, 2024

PE data for Q1: Our PE First Looks put our data in your hands as quickly as possible, covering dealmaking, exits, fundraising, and more. To access our datapacks for PE data globally, in the US, and in Europe, click here.

March performance: Is there a light at the end of the IPO tunnel? Our Global Markets Snapshot illustrates trends in the equity, debt, and commodities markets, tracking returns across a range of indexes and sectors. Read it here.

All things LLM: On Tuesday, we're hosting a conversation with AI developer community leader Yujian Tang to discuss the state of the LLM app stack. Register here.

We're hiring! Check out these job openings on our news and product teams: PE Reporter (EMEA), Lead Product Manager, VC Reporter.

Global VC exit value in Q1 sank to a low not seen since 2016

Cautious optimism was a good description of venture market sentiment going into 2024. In most cases, though, it has been, "new year, same VC market."

Optimism is inherent to venture, and a single quarter won't change that, but Q1 did highlight some remaining chasms.

I'll admit that I am in the camp that believes by the end of the year, 2024 will look like a better market than what we saw in 2023. Though, taking a realistic approach to expectations for the year is important.

Global deal counts may look relatively strong, but deal value continued to trail off and Q1 finished more than $100 billion lower than the peaks we saw a couple of years ago. This higher-but-lower dichotomy points to a continued high level of extension financings—smaller deals building runway for companies—and not necessarily a gauge for new money interest.

Other concerning datapoints are easy to pick out. Fundraising and exits were, by most standards, poor.

Global exit value was the lowest quarterly total since Q4 2016. Even in the US, where Reddit and Astera Labs' IPOs generated substantial buzz, total exit value was less than $20 billion.

We are now two years into this venture correction, but there's reason to believe there is more that will be filtered out. Company counts are high, exits are low, distributions are minimal, and the market remains humbled.

Silver linings are great, but masking the remaining market structure generates a false spring.

Before our full venture reports come out over the next couple of weeks, we put together some high-level datasets as a preview that set the tone for expectations this year.

Download the data here: PitchBook Venture First Looks

Best,

Kyle Stanford, CAIA
Lead Analyst, Venture

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Thematic Research

Organ Transplant Tech

There are new opportunities aplenty in the evolving world of organ transplant tech.

Core areas of innovation—including transplant diagnostics and organ transport—have an estimated combined market opportunity of at least $7 billion.

See a larger version of the diagram in the research.

AI is also emerging as a tool for crossmatching and assessing rejection risk, while government involvement in the space is opening new avenues:

read the free research

Takeaways From the Future Food-Tech Conference

Alt-proteins took center stage at the recent Future Food-Tech event, as well as the themes of scaling and commercialization in a tough fundraising environment.

In our recap of key takeaways, we also noted that drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy will have widespread implications for the food industry as diets shift:

read the free research

Takeaways From the Game Developers Conference

AI was ubiquitous at GCD 2024 in San Francisco.

We identified 9 key takeaways from the gaming conference, as investors and founders discussed the industry and what innovations to expect in the near future:

read the free research

Industry & Tech Research

Emerging Space Brief: Trust & Safety Tech

Combating digital threats like misinformation and fraud is made much more difficult by their dynamic nature.

Our new research looks at the trust and safety tech forming the bedrock of online safety across a range of sectors:

read the free research

Webinars & Events

Save these dates!

April 17: With the interest rate landscape beginning to settle, loan investors and issuers are returning to the finance markets, heightening already-tense competition between syndicated lenders and private credit. We'll discuss it all in our quarterly webinar on the state of the US leveraged loan and private credit markets. Register here.

April 29-May 1: Come visit us at DealMAX in Las Vegas, where our lead PE analyst Tim Clarke will lead a session discussing where and when private equity firms will find exit opportunities. Register here.

In the News

Our insights and data featured in the press:

Q1 borrowing activity in the US leveraged loan market hit near-record levels. [Axios]

Why is fundraising so slow for VCs? "At the core of the issue is exits." [FT]

Global venture capital investment nears a five-year low in Q1. [Reuters]

For thermal battery startups, valuations and fundraising are trending way up. [Fortune]

Expect PE activity in healthcare IT to accelerate in 2024 after last year's slump. [Axios Pro]

If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.

ICYMI

More of our recent research (* - report preview):

Market updates

France Market Snapshot
Global Private Debt Report
Global Real Estate Report
Quantitative Perspectives: Cleared for Takeoff?
PE Lending League Tables

Thematic research

Industry & tech research

Credit research

Coming next week (subject to change)

PitchBook Benchmarks
PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor
US PE Breakdown

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PitchBook News - A low for VC since 2016

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The evolution of organ transplant tech

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