Proof of Concept - Success for consumer mobile software
With the recent buzz around Airchat, the second coming of Clubhouse (but a sync), it’s timely to discus consumer mobile software. Consumer apps are software applications designed and developed for use by the general public, typically available for download or purchase on mobile devices or computers. These apps serve various purposes, from entertainment and social networking to productivity and utility. They are intended to meet the needs and preferences of individual users rather than businesses or enterprises. Consumer software, especially on mobile, is the toughest category. There are so many things that need to happen to sustain and be successful. Enterprise isn’t “easy” per se, but there is a more predictable adoption path than building software for everyday consumer use. Defining success in consumer is subjective. I’m not going to define an industry standard. Instead, let’s define success for consumer mobile software having sustaining usage and adoption for over a year. In this case, Clubhouse in the height of 2021, the year when everyone joined a16z or the cast of Dune, as successful. The audio-first social app went from 600,000 users in December of 2020 to about 2 million two months later. Clubhouse continued to grow in users but usage began to decline later in 2021. Clubhouse had 3.5 million active users in September 2021, a decline of more than 60% on its peak in March. There are obvious pandemic factors that skew this as a use case. Regardless, you have to respect the 12-month run the app had in terms of its growth. With this success framing in mind, let’s look at factors that work (and don’t). Consumer app clones don’t last longX/Twitter, whatever you call it, is the prime example of where clones don’t work. Even prior to the Elon acquisition there were many attempts at a Twitter clone. Mastodon, the decentralized social network was started eight years ago. When Twitter locked down its developer platform (the first time), App.net emerged as a developer-friendly alternative to Twitter—also offering 256 characters to Twitter’s (then) 140 character limit. There was some differentiation, but as different as Harland Williams’ character in There’s Something About Mary pitching 7 Minute Abs—a product he proclaimed was superior to 8 minute abs because it only takes 7 minutes. App.net was Twitter with more characters. Since Elon owning Twitter, many proclaimed leaving the platform forever in favor of Bluesky, Instagram Threads, T2¹, and others, the same people are still on the platform. Leaving Twitter is an American saying they’ll move to Canada if their presidential candidate of choice does not get elected. Few actually do it. The common reason is whether we like it or not, competing with existing behaviors and infrastructure is difficult. I personally don’t love the direction of Twitter, but I also can’t mentally invest in adoption several alternatives. The existing infrastructure challenge is so difficult even those who have large scale struggle to compete. Instagram Threads were able to use the massive scale of being a Meta company to turn on scale overnight. However, after a month, usage dropped 85%. If it’s this tough for Meta, imaging how hard it is for app clones to make it. Niche apps can sustain, but scale is toughOne way to compete with large scale is going after a niche of users; going deeper in an offering they cannot get it anywhere else. Letterboxd is a social network focused on cataloging films—the Goodreads for movies. This consumer mobile app works because it’s loaded with movie nerds who are highly engaged². They love films so much they’re willing to spend time writing a long-form review and share it with their followers. The app is niche but since September of 2023 they have 10 million users, which is impressive. There are many other examples like Letterboxd in different categories targeting niche groups. Are.na³ is Pinterest for research-oriented individuals. Combine experiences to make something interestingThe aforementioned Airchat is described as a dinner party in your pocket. It takes the voice emphasis of Clubhouse, asynchronous communication of Marco Polo, and transcriptions from podcasts, and infuses it all together in a mobile app. Airchat is the Cronut of consumer mobile software. Before you think combining existing things is unoriginal, remember that mor ethan 57% of mobile phones used in the United States were combining an iPod, a phone, and an internet communicator—are you getting it? The experience is differentiating enough that feels new and fresh, resulting in people willing to adopt it. If Airchat is the Cronut, Descript is the Arnold Palmer. There are loads of examples of combining experiences to create a unique consumer software experience. It’s too early deem Airchat’s fate, but I appreciate the team’s willingness to explore an experience that feels new. Delightful designIn the early 2010s, the best designers worked on consumer software. There were two simple reasons:
Don’t believe me? There is a history of people downloading an app simply to check out an interaction:
These may not be the first but examples of what gained popularity. Trends are cyclical and generationalLike Normcore making a trend in 2008 in fashion, trends come and go, then return. There are generational differences in usage of consumer software. Once, The Facebook and the hottest social network on campuses, now it’s where geriatric millennials go look for stroller deals on Facebook Marketplace. Gen Z won’t adopt Facebook and forge their own consumer experiences. TikTok is the new Vine, BeReal is the new FrontBack, Letterboxd is the new Getglue, and the litany of apps will continue.. Respect to those working in consumerConsumer is high risk. The majority of them will shut down, get acquired, or inevitably pivot to B2B. However, they have a chance to live in infamy in a moment of history when they shined. They live on as a stardust of inspiration for those creating software. To all the founders working on consumer, I have so much respect for what you’re building and wish you the best of luck. Hype links
Job opportunities1 Not Terminator 2, BTW 2 Follow me on Letterboxd 3 Follow me on Are.na You're currently a free subscriber to Proof of Concept. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |
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