Not to sound overdramatic, but yesterday is a day that will go down in political history. For the first time, a former President is the defendant in a criminal trial, and to add to the gravity of that situation, that same defendant is currently leading in the polls to return to the White House. As with all things Trump, there is no precedent, and it defies our understanding of how politics, democracy, and the rule of law should work.

Others will write eloquently about this moment in the larger sweep of American history, but I want to focus on the political implications. Even though jury selection has just begun, defeatism is already infecting the coverage of Trump’s trial. No matter the verdict, Trump will suffer no meaningful political damage. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s take based on the polling:

Jury selection begins Monday in Donald Trump's New York hush money case, the first of the former president's four criminal trials. The charges are related to an alleged cover-up of a $130,000 hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. But the polls suggest that a guilty verdict would be unlikely to have a big influence come November.

I could not disagree with this analysis more. The scale of his crimes (Donald Trump falsifying records to cover up an extramarital affair) seems like small potatoes when compared to his violent attempt to overthrow an election or stealing closely-held national secrets from the White House and then showing them to random people at his beach club. Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison if convicted. Still, a felony conviction months before a divisive election is nothing to scoff at.

This trial is a big deal with massive implications.

1. Everything Matters in a Close Election

There is an asymmetry in how people talk and write about this election. Most people focus on the minute margin for error regarding President Biden’s reelection. The media loves to speculate on which parts of Biden’s coalition could flip to Trump or stay home. For Trump, no matter how salacious the allegation or egregious the gaffe, the political implications immediately pivot to how this won’t really hurt him. There are a few reasons for this VERY annoying dynamic. First, Republicans have lost nearly every election of consequence since Trump won the presidency. It is remarkable Trump remains the leader of the Republican Party with a shot at the White House. Second, for a variety of reasons, Democrats are much more nervous about the election, and our anxiety saturates the coverage. Finally, in online discourse and political conversations, cynicism is cooler than hope or optimism. It is more socially acceptable to expect the worst than hope for the best.

However, the reality is that, in a close election, everything matters. Neither candidate can afford to lose voters. That’s even more true for Trump who came up short last time. He must cling to every vote from his former presidency and find tens of thousands more. It’s absurd to believe a criminal conviction doesn’t make that task more challenging.

2. What the Polls Really Say

The FiveThirtyEight piece cites a raft of polling. Most of it doesn’t — in my humble opinion — support the major contention of their story.

The New York Times/Siena poll released this past weekend clarifies how this particular trial poses a real danger to Trump:

• 53% of voters and 49% of Independents already think Trump has committed serious crimes;

• 58% believe the charges of hush money payments made to the porn star Stormy Daniels are serious. This includes 54% of Independents and 23% of Trump 2020 voters; and

• 49% of voters think Trump should be found guilty in this case.

A near majority believe Trump is guilty. Even more intriguing, only 36% believe he should be found not guilty and 18% are undecided, don’t know or refused to answer. One in four 2020 Trump voters are not yet sure if Trump should be acquitted. What happens to those voters if Trump is convicted? Most of them vote for Trump anyway. Partisanship is a hell of a drug, but the results of the Republican Primary suggest that drug’s effects may be waning. The exit polls consistently showed that about 30% of Republican primary voters would not believe Trump was fit for the presidency if convicted.

Even if only a fraction of these voters stay home or vote for Biden, it will be enough to tip the election. In the Times poll, Trump is up by one point while getting 94% of his 2020 voters. If only 3% of those voters decide not to vote for Trump, Biden will win by a decent margin.

3. Use Common Sense

People are overthinking this whole thing. Try to say this paragraph out loud to yourself with a straight face:

Seven months before an election, the presumptive Republican nominee is on trial for falsifying business records to conceal an extramarital affair with a porn star and even if he is convicted, it probably won’t impact the election in a major way.

You can’t do it. It’s impossible.

Putting aside the salaciousness of the allegations, the trial’s existence is a major political problem. Per Judge Merchan, Trump has to be in court every day that the trial is in session or face arrest. Politico’s Kyle Cheney estimates that live testimony won’t even begin until next month. Instead of campaigning in the battleground states or raising money for his cash-strapped campaign, Trump will be stuck in Manhattan sitting at the defense table. While Trump is in court this week, President Biden will be barnstorming Pennsylavia, addressing Trump’s plan to cut taxes for the wealthy and raise them on working- and middle-class families.

FInally, Trump being in the news has generally been bad for him and a high profile trial in the media capital of the world guarantees that much of the political coverage will be centered on the former President for the duration of the trial.

Of course, a conviction doesn’t guarantee a Trump loss, but that’s not the same as saying it doesn’t matter.

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