Good morning! Are you ready for UPI on steroids? In a recent paper, Nandan Nilekani and Mexican economist Agustín Carstens pitched the concept of Finternet. Zero points for the insipid name, but if the authors have their way, Finternet will bring all your financial assets—bank money, equity, and real estate—in one place. Imagine transferring real estate to anyone, anytime, anywhere. This future financial system would use tokenisation and unified ledgers. Sounds familiar, right? Interestingly, the paper doesn't mention blockchain.

🎧 All that space junk. Also in today’s episode: the never-ending Taylor Swift phenomenon. Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Dinesh Narayanan, Anup Semwal, and Roshni Nair also contributed to today’s edition.

The Market Signal*

Stocks & Economy: US markets closed lower for the fourth straight session on Wednesday largely owing to a drop in crude oil prices—the steepest decline in two months—as US stockpiles reached a 10-month high. The Biden administration has reimposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil and may impose fresh curbs on Iranian crude following the Iran-Israel conflict.

Asian stocks fared better on Thursday. The Japanese yen and South Korean won strengthened on account of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicating that the US may intervene to slow the depreciation of the two currencies. Indian markets and the Gift Nifty are expected to open flat after the Ram Navami holiday.

Several companies report earnings later today. These include Infosys, Bajaj Auto, Netflix, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Suppliers Surprise

Tesla may invest $2-3 billion in India, mostly to build a factory, Reuters reports in the runup to Elon Musk’s visit next week. The EV maker is also scouting for showroom spaces in Delhi and Mumbai.

Where Tesla will headquarter Indian manufacturing operations is a mystery, but Business Standard reported that Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan are contenders. Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are reportedly at an advantage because of their respective proximity to East Asia and West Europe, Tesla’s major import-export hubs. But Tamil Nadu has a strong auto ecosystem.

Sourcing the Bloomberg Suppliers database, the publication also identified eight Indian suppliers who have already been working with the company before its India debut: Samvardhana Motherson, Bosch Group, Hindalco Industries, Goodluck India, Suprajit Engineering, Sona BLW Precision Forgings, Valiant Communication, and Varroc Engineering. Fwiw, the Centre is also keen on Musk building a battery ecosystem here.

PODCAST

Tune in every Monday to Friday as financial journalist and host Govindraj Ethiraj gives you the most important take on the latest in business and economy.

Today, he speaks to Kunal Sodhani, Vice President, Shinhan Bank (Global Trading Center, FX and Rates Treasury) on the rupee hitting fresh all-time lows. Also in this episode: can gold prices keep going up? With Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of equities, commodities, and currency research firm SS WealthStreet.

ECONOMY

Hidden In High Growth Forecast, A Warning

A bonanza awaits Indian workers if they quickly upgrade their skill levels. The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook forecasts that in the medium term, two out of three workers entering the global pool will be from India and sub-Saharan Africa. 

About 92% of the global economy has seen the population of those aged 15–64 slowing down. The cohort has been shrinking in 44% of economies. 

Yet, the medium-term outlook for most economies is not looking good. The IMF warns that after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, misallocation of capital and labour has dragged down growth in advanced economies as well as emerging ones. That portends worsening prospects for living standards and poverty reduction if corrective policies are not adopted immediately. 

“An entrenched low-growth environment, coupled with high interest rates, would threaten debt sustainability and could fuel social tension and hinder the green transition,” it says.

E-COMMERCE

Small Store, Big Problems

In the 2000s, large retailers were certain they could take on the kirana store with small convenience stores that offered a polished, sleek experience. Nearly 20 years later, that dream is well on its way out. The KK Modi Group owned-cigarette maker Godfrey Phillips has put its convenience store chain 24Seven on the block, The Economic Times reports. Reliance, Tata, and D-Mart are among those bidding for the chain that largely operates in north India. 

Drama-rama: The sale isn’t just about a difficult-to-run business. KK Modi’s son Samir Modi sued his mother Bina earlier this year, alleging she failed to hand over his share of the Rs 11,000 crore inheritance after the patriarch’s death. Bina Modi is the managing director of Godfrey Phillips India, while son Samir runs 24Seven along with other businesses. 

The Signal
Indian supermarkets once aimed to supplant India’s traditional traders network, but failed to expand beyond an average of 10% share of consumer goods distribution. Smaller convenience store chains such as 24Seven and Kishore Biyani’s erstwhile chain Easyday took aim at local kiranas in the 2010s. 

Now, quick commerce is opening kirana-like dark stores in dense neighbourhoods of India’s top cities to serve the same customers these small supermarkets targeted. For an operations-heavy business like 24Seven, competing with home-delivery offerings of Instamart and Blinkit is now nearly impossible. 

FYI

Top up: The Adani family has infused an additional Rs 8,339 crore in Ambuja Cements, taking its total stake in the cement company to 70.3%.

One alert, then another: Record downpours and ensuing flash floods in the UAE and Oman have disrupted flights and killed over 20 people in the region. A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck off Shikoku island, Japan, on Wednesday evening.

Pink slips: Google is laying off an unspecified number of staffers to cut costs and “build out” growth hubs in Bengaluru, Dublin, and Mexico City, Business Insider reports. Swiss bank UBS is planning another round of layoffs following its rescue of Credit Suisse, according to Bloomberg.

No can do: The European Data Protection Board is pushing Meta to stop charging EU users for ad-free versions of Instagram and Facebook.

Ridiculous, baby: An investigation has revealed that Nestle adds sugar in its infant food products sold across the Global South—something it doesn’t do in European markets. Tests on Cerelac products in India, the largest market for the baby food brand, had 2.7g added sugar per serving. 

THE DAILY DIGIT

1 billion

The threshold for monthly active users that messaging app Telegram will cross within a year, according to its founder Pavel Durov. (Reuters)

FWIW

No money, no honey: China is no country for debtors. Those who default on personal loans in the Middle Kingdom are barred from high-speed rail travel. Some even face limits on buying costly insurance or staying in luxe hotels. Individuals with bad loans also can't secure government jobs, and the state seizes part of their income. Defying these penalties risks detention. We’re not sure how shunning debtors from trains and hotels helps, but the Chinese government says it targets only those who can repay but won't. It is only fitting then that a black market of rail tickets has consequently come onto the scene. You can always trust scalpers to have your back when the state turns its back on you.