The Conversation - Gaza is not the only famine risk

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The humanitarian crisis facing the war-weary residents of the Gaza Strip continues to get worse. Hunger is now a daily part of life for many Palestinians living there, with the United Nations warning of an “imminent famine.”

Gaza is not alone in facing severe shortages of food. Parts of Sudan, Haiti and Ethiopia are also at the tipping point – indeed, some 282 million people faced acute hunger in 2023, according to the U.N.’s latest snapshot, released last week.

But how do famines form? Paul Howe, an expert on global hunger issues at Tufts University, has developed a model that probes that very question.

His article explains how famines go through a cycle that starts with severe pressure on a population – often the result of war – that is then held in place for a prolonged period during which self-reinforcing dynamics creep in. It then peaks in an actual famine system during which deaths spike.

“I’m deeply worried when I see elements of this model coming together in multiple places,” notes Howe, adding that a rapid increase in malnutrition in Gaza now “may signal the emergence of a famine system in the north.”

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Matt Williams

Senior International Editor

A Palestinian girl holds aloft an empty bowl to protest food shortages in Gaza on March 12, 2024. Omar Qattaa/Anadolu via Getty Images

How famines are formed: In Gaza and elsewhere, an underlying pattern that can lead to hunger and death

Paul Howe, Tufts University

In Gaza, Sudan, Haiti and elsewhere around the globe, famine affects increasing numbers of people.

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