Aziz Sunderji - The Future of Homeownership
An 80-year boomIn 1944, as World War II drew to a close, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Servicemen's Readjustment Act, better known as the GI Bill. Homeownership had been rising slowly at the beginning of the 20th century. The GI Bill was an inflection point. It gave returning servicemen low-interest loans with no downpayment, backed by insurance from the newly created Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Veterans Administration (VA). Between the end of the war and 1950, the number of American homeowners leapt by almost 9 million. That was more than the combined increase in the four decades prior to the war. We never looked back. Since 1940, the country has gained this same amount—roughly 9 million new homeowning households—every 10 years. The pace of homeownership growth has held steady through violent economic crises—the severe recession in the 1970’s, and the Great Financial Crisis, for example—not to mention a handful of wars and social upheavals. Maybe most surprisingly, homeownership has continued to climb despite widespread and long-running concerns about home affordability. But, 80 years after the homeowner explosion began, things may be about to change. People—especially young people—are not striking out to start their own households as much as they did in the past. More are living with their parents, or with friends—and fewer are buying their own homes. Even more importantly, Americans are at the vanguard of a global trend towards declining fertility. Last year, for the first time, the Census Bureau forecast the American population starting to shrink. They anticipate this happening in just over 50 years. Were it not for immigration, the population would start to shrink in just over 10 years. This raises an important question: Can America continue to grow homeownership in the decades to come?Population growth—and more recently, the aging of the population—has long provided a tailwind for realtors, builders, investors, and other participants in the housing market. It’s transformed real estate into the biggest industry in America. Can this momentum continue? Today's article is a deep-dive into the future of homeownership, and it’s only for paying subscribers. I draw on academic research, analyze a dozen data sets, and grapple with the competing trends to answer some of the biggest questions for those in the housing industry:
I had expected this to be an article forecasting a peak in homeowner growth sometime around 2030. In fact, my research and analysis led me to a very different conclusion—one that suggests we’re at a critical juncture for those in the real estate industry, and raises more big questions about the years ahead. ... ![]() Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Aziz Sunderji.A subscription gets you:
|
Older messages
The Week in Review
Saturday, May 4, 2024
Week of Apr 29 — Labor Loosens, Prices Pop, Inventory Inflates ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
The Week in Review
Saturday, April 27, 2024
Week of Apr 22 — Economy eases, Fertility falls, New home purchases pop ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
The Impending Demographic Collapse
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Organic population growth turns negative in 24 years ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
The Week in Review
Saturday, April 20, 2024
Week of Apr 16 — Home starts stutter, Sales stagnate, Rates rip ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Home Starts? More like Home Stops
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
A sharp downturn in new and planned construction ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
You Might Also Like
J.Lo Nailed A Victorian-Era Gown At Her ‘Bridgerton’-Themed Birthday Party & Looked So Regal
Saturday, July 27, 2024
What would Lady Whistledown think? The Zoe Report Daily The Zoe Report 7.26.2024 J.Lo's Victorian-Era Gown At Her 'Bridgerton'-Themed Birthday Party Was So Regal (Celebrity) J.Lo's
These Parts of the US Are More Likely to Lose Power This Summer
Friday, July 26, 2024
You'll Be Able to FaceTime With 911 Soon. Trouble viewing this email? Read it online If you live in these areas, you may want to invest in a generator. Not displaying correctly? View this
Rihanna Just Matched Her Thong To Her Shoes And It's So Spicy
Friday, July 26, 2024
Plus, Hailey Bieber's flirty maternity style, your daily horoscope, & more. Jul. 26, 2024 Bustle Daily Woman with blonde hair wearing a pink top and denim jeans poses in a sunlit park, hand in
Kamala Already Has the Swifties’ Vote
Friday, July 26, 2024
What's new today on the Cut — covering style, self, culture, and power, plus interviews, profiles, columns, and commentary from our editors. Brand Logo FRIDAY, JULY 26 2024 ELECTION Kamala Already
The best edible souvenirs from Paris
Friday, July 26, 2024
Everything Keith Lee has eaten in Chicago so far
Unleashing the brat within
Friday, July 26, 2024
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Olympics Watch-Party Merch, Bralettes for All Cup Sizes, and More
Friday, July 26, 2024
A stylish weekly newsletter helping you make good choices about what to spend your money on. Every product is independently selected by editors. If you buy something through our links, New York may
5-Bullet Friday — An Alzheimer’s Breakthrough, Creation vs. Criticism, Ape Memories, and More
Friday, July 26, 2024
“Heresies are experiments in man's unsatisfied search for truth.” — HG Wells
Let the Games Begin
Friday, July 26, 2024
View in Browser Men's Health SHOP MVP EXCLUSIVES SUBSCRIBE The Men's Health Paris Olympics HQ The Men's Health Paris Olympics HQ Mental and physical performance tips from top athletes
New and Old #172
Friday, July 26, 2024
Friday roundup and commentary ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏