Good morning! Indian artists truly lit up the French Riviera this weekend. Filmmaker Payal Kapadia won the Grand Prix for her film All We Imagine as Light at the Cannes film festival. Two days ago, Anasuya Sengupta became the first Indian to win the best actress prize for her work in Bulgarian filmmaker Konstantin Bojanov’s The Shameless, in which she plays Renuka, who flees a Delhi brothel after killing a cop. An Indian Express report describes Kapadia’s prize-winning work as a gentle, meditative movie on female friendship. There is poetic irony in her win as she was punished in 2015 by her alma mater the Film and Television Institute of India for leading protests against what was then termed as the political appointment of Gajendra Chauhan as the institute’s director. You go, girl!

🎧 Women swipe left on swiping. Also in today’s episode: the rise of Chinese study apps in the US. Tune in to Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Market Signal*

Stocks & Economy: Asian markets started the day with renewed optimism following an easing in US consumer inflation expectations. The gains come after a turbulent week, when doubts persisted over a property rescue package in China and whether the Fed would cut rates this year. China will release industrial profits and PMI data this week.

Ether had its largest weekly rise of 25% in about three years after the US Securities and Exchange Commission gave its approval for exchange-traded funds tied to the cryptocurrency.

Former Tata Consultancy Services CEO and MD Rajesh Gopinathan has joined the board of the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Gopinathan is the second tech industry executive to join the NSE board after Veneet Nayar, former chief of HCL Technologies.

The GIFT Nifty indicates a flat start for Indian stocks.

TAXATION

Not Happening, Joe

Among Joe Biden’s list of priorities when he became the US President was a minimum global corporate tax. The proposal was meant to diminish the utility of tax havens and ensure companies paid their dues to their home countries.

That agenda is unlikely to be fulfilled. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has said that the US will not sign a deal unless India comes on board. China also has dragged its feet at negotiations that envisage a 15% base tax on multinational corporations. Although 140 countries agreed to the global tax policy in 2021, the deal is stuck in the nuts and bolts. 

India is particularly concerned about rules on transfer pricing, which are charges for goods and services that one arm of a company provides another. The amounts often become contentious in international transactions involving a foreign parent and Indian subsidiary. 

PODCAST

Tune in every Monday to Friday as financial journalist and host Govindraj Ethiraj gives you the most important take on the latest in business and economy.

In today’s episode, he speaks to Manisha Kapoor, CEO and Secretary General at the Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI), as well as Captain Amit Singh, an active Airbus A320 pilot and founder of Delhi-based Safety Matters Foundation.

TRADE

West Preps For Dustup With Beijing

The trade war between China and the West is set to escalate after finance ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) nations said the former was harming their economies. 

“We express concerns about China’s comprehensive use of non-market policies and practices that undermine our workers, industries, and economic resilience,” the G7 said in a communique (pdf) after a two-day meeting in Italy. The meeting was also attended by the chiefs of multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.  

China is reportedly mulling retaliatory tariffs on imports, including a 25% duty on cars with large engines. It is also said to be considering a dumping probe into pork imports from the European Union. The latest round of escalations began with Washington imposing new curbs on Chinese imports worth $18 billion and egged Europe on to follow suit.

MARKETS

Long-term Investors Get Poll Jitters

India’s Lok Sabha elections have caught long-term investors in a bind. When polling began in April, there was almost a consensus that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would return to power with a better mandate. That belief is partly shaken after the penultimate round of voting on Saturday. 

One of the main reasons for the uncertainty is the drop in voter turnout and pundits and pollsters are unable to gauge whether it is a secular decline across parties because of the oppressive heat or if any particular formation is suffering more voter absenteeism. 

Foreign investors are almost certain to hit the sell button on an opposition resurgence. They have already pulled out $6.3 billion from stocks and bonds this quarter. A Bloomberg report cast doubts on the continuity of reforms such as overhauling land and labour laws if Modi is not back in the driving seat.

The Business Standard cited equity analysts as expecting stocks to rise this week in anticipation of results. 

The Signal

The perceived change in electoral undercurrents had led to many traders building up short positions until a few sessions ago. Some began to unwind them towards the end of the last week. But investors sitting on significant long-term gains are getting jittery. Their quandary is whether to book profits now or wait until the results are out. A totally unexpected result can wipe out a big chunk of the profits built over a decade. Encashing early and missing out on a post-June 4 rally will also hurt.

FYI

🤝: Five years and multiple court battles later, BharatPe and PhonePe have settled their dispute over using the suffix ‘Pe’. Both will register them as their trademarks.

Drop in affordables: The stock of new homes in January-March 2024 costing Rs 60 lakh (~$72,000) or less has shrunk 38% to 33,420 units across eight Indian cities, according to property data analytics firm PropEquity. 

The end?: Sharjah-based Sky One is now the sole bidder for bankrupt airline Go First after SpiceJet owner Ajay Singh and travel services platform EaseMyTrip founder Nishant Pitti withdrew their joint bid. 

All in: Japanese investment giant SoftBank, whose founder Masayoshi Son is enamoured of artificial intelligence, is ready to invest $9 billion a year in AI companies.  

Rare chat: China, Japan and South Korea are holding a summit after a four-year gap. Chinese President Xi Jinping, however, is not attending the trilateral meet hosted by Korea. 

THE DAILY DIGIT

10,46,163 

The number of motor accident insurance claims pending across the country. They are collectively worth Rs 80,455 crore (~$9.6 billion). (The Business Standard)

FWIW

Slouch wear goes chic: Changing workplace mores and norms often spawn fashion trends. Think Mark Zuckerberg and the grey hoodie. The pandemic made informality so ubiquitous that athleisure came out of homes and gyms and even entered offices. The latest on fire is what The Wall Street Journalcalls “a descendant of the infamous 1980s jegging, these Frankensteined pants are soft and loose but printed to look like a pair of jeans”. These are sweatpants but printed to look like jeans. Making them is not easy as it requires precise printing to align with the seams for the perfect faux denim look. The must-have is said to be Rag & Bone’s Miramar line.