Biden and Trump debate – can America win?

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The presidential campaign will shift into a new gear this evening with the first debate between the presumptive major-party candidates.

This is the earliest debate in any campaign season ever, which brings some opportunities for the candidates and even the public, as Auburn University’s Susan Fillippeli explains. A former political communications consultant who now teaches that subject, she pointedly observes that “historically, debates tend to have greater effects on the outcome of elections when one of the candidates says or does something stupid.”

But while both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are focused on not making an error, don’t get your hopes up for either of them to score a lasting victory, according to W. Joseph Campbell, a professor emeritus of communication at American University.

Campbell looks back at the first televised presidential debate, between U.S. Sen. John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon, in 1960. As it’s told today, Nixon lost the presidency in that debate by being sweaty and uncomfortable under the blazing TV studio lights. But, Campbell explains, the “prevailing view at the time was that the debate settled nothing about the 1960 race for the presidency.” In fact, significant proportions of pundits and audience members thought Nixon had come out on top.

Campbell notes that “first assessments can be fleeting and prone to dramatic revision,” so the initial results of tonight’s debate may look very different by the time November rolls around.

In fact, Fillippeli observes, “it is not out of the question that a very poor showing by either candidate could lead to serious discussions about replacing that candidate as the party’s nominee.”

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Jeff Inglis

Politics + Society Editor

Yet to be seen: a new style of presidential debate. Watchalee Sirikayon/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Debate offers opportunity for errors, partisan spin − and maybe an opening for change

Susan Fillippeli, Auburn University

Featuring several unique rules, including no live audience and mics that cut off when it’s not a speaker’s turn, the debate might help shape the 2024 presidential race.

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