The Breakdown First Five - Monday, July 8, 2024

Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.

5. Bitcoin Falls Below $55k

Bitcoin had a massive stumble over the holiday weekend, falling below $55,000 twice. The past week was the worst drop since November 2022, closing the candle down 14%. The drawdown from the highs is now at 24%, again the worst we’ve seen since this bull run kicked off. Sentiment is icy and the FUD is coming thick and fast. 

4. ETF Buyers Buying

Completely undeterred by mounting FUD, on Friday Bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest inflows in over a month. $143M was added to the funds, with Fidelity and Bitwise both putting up strong performances. Whether this was simply market makers taking advantage of an after hours dislocation or retail buying the dip, it seems that ETF buyers aren’t looking to capitulate at the first sign of trouble ahead.

3. Samourai Founder Bailed

William Lonergan Hill aka TDev has been released on bail. He faces money laundering charges in relation to his work as a co-founder of Samourai wallet. The DOJ agreed to bail, but were not comfortable with Hill returning to his home in Portugal. The next hearing in relation to the Bitcoin privacy tool will be next week and Hill intends to fight the charges. 

2. Germans Continue Dumping

The German government is not easing up on their liquidation. They attempted to force through $172M in sales on the 4th of July, but a significant portion was returned unsold. We’re now 15% through the massive $3.2B stack. There’s still another 8 weeks of supply at the current pace. A German independent MP is beginning to question the strategy, suggesting that lawmakers have no strategy in dumping their Bitcoin instead of holding it as reserves. 

1. Mt Gox Coins Moving

The time has come. The Mt Gox unlock has begun. After more than a decade of waiting, the Mt Gox coins are finally moving. Around $85M has been moved to Bitbank and around 47,000 Bitcoin is being prepared for other distribution agents. No individual creditors are expected to get access to their Bitcoin for weeks if not months, but the process has started. Selling pressure is as yet unknown, but traders are getting out of the way of the mother of all FUD events.