Would Kamala Harris Have a Better Chance than Biden?
Would Kamala Harris Have a Better Chance than Biden?Pro-Biden folks have argued that Harris would fare worse than Biden, are they right?Yesterday, the New York Times reported that the Biden Campaign entered the field with a survey testing how Vice President Kamala Harris would fare against Trump. Internal polling like this rarely leaks from the tight-lipped Biden operation. It is also notable in light of something included in the story:
You often hear this argument from Democrats who believe the debate deeply damaged Biden. Sure, Biden is a long shot, but Harris would fare no better. If Biden steps aside, Kamala Harris would undoubtedly be the person to replace Biden on the ticket. Is she really a better option? Answering hypotheticals is an exercise in futility, but we do have some data and information from which to draw an educated analysis. What the Polls Can Tell UsPolling is imprecise (hence the margin of error) and polling hypothetical situations is particularly imprecise. The picture is cloudy because this is happening in the middle of a massive media firestorm taking place over a holiday weekend. But here’s what we know: Before the debate, there was little evidence in the polls that Kamala Harris would be a better candidate than Biden. She generally did a few points worse than the President in head-to-head matchups with Trump. That has changed since the debate. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on Thursday found Biden losing to Trump by 1, but Harris leading by 2. That’s the first poll I have seen that showed Harris in the lead. That lead and the disparity with Biden are well within the margin of error, so I hesitate to read too much into it. A few days before, an Emerson College poll showed Biden performing 3 points better than Harris against Trump, with both behind the former President... Unlock this post for free, courtesy of Dan Pfeiffer.A subscription gets you:
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Biden's Gamble: The High-Stakes Decision to Stay in the Race
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
The President is staying the course despite all of the warning signs ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Biden Did The Big Interview, Now What?
Sunday, July 7, 2024
The President's ABC News interview raised more questions than it answered. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Why the Dem Panic over the Debate is Getting Worse
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
A tepid response and a series of new polls are raising fears at the highest levels of the party. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Dems Must Confront the MAGA Supreme Court
Monday, July 1, 2024
The ruling in the immunity case raises the stakes in the election. Democrats must respond in kind. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
How Dems Move Past the Bad Debate
Saturday, June 29, 2024
A race that has been incredibly steady just entered a very fluid, confusing new phase. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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