2PM - Letter No. 1,000: 2025-2029

Excerpt: "From 2019 to 2024, global eCommerce revenues soared by almost 90%, catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which accelerated the adoption of online shopping. Innovations such as AI, voice search, and augmented reality blurred the lines between digital and physical shopping experiences, driving substantial user engagement and revenue growth. However, despite these advancements, the landscape is set to change drastically.

According to that Stocklytics report, the annual growth rate will plummet to 4.6% by 2029, a third of the current rate. Several factors contribute to this projected decline that have been discussed here. Supply chain disruptions, inflation, rising digital advertising costs, and evolving consumer behavior are creating a more challenging environment for eCommerce profitability. The once double-digit growth rates will give way to a more tempered expansion, necessitating a strategic pivot towards integrating online and offline channels."

Continue Reading. eCommerce: 2025 through 2029

Where does Nike go from here?

Meanwhile, a host of challenger brands new and old are chipping away at Nike’s market share in myriad categories, from athletic footwear to activewear to lifestyle sneakers. Its closest rival Adidas is set to report its highest profit margin in three years when it reports earnings for the first half of 2024 on July 31.

In parallel, companies Tracksmith, Bandit, and many others are eating into Nike's share of the pie.

The end of self-checkouts?

"In particular, self-checkout causes a dramatic increase in partial shrink, where a shopper pays for some of their purchase, but not the full amount," he explained. "By eliminating partial shrink, checkout-free systems more than double bottom-line grocery profits, a win-win for retailers and shoppers."

Web3: A new era for social commerce 

In 2023, the social commerce market was valued at over $1 trillion and is forecasted to grow by 600% by 2030. This growth signals a transformative shift in consumer behavior - fueled by ever evolving technological advances.

After rejecting buyout offer, Macy's is rolling out more private brands to boost its business

Marketplaces / Modern Retail: Weeks after rejecting a $5.8 billion buyout offer, Macy's is putting faith in its private brands to boost its bottom line.

Indiegogo debuts eCommerce site for crowdfunded products

Marketplaces / Retail Touch Points: IndieShop is now live on the Indiegogo site, after launching in beta in May, and it currently features more than 40 products. Here is the new shop. 

Flip, the TikTok shop competitor, acquires Curated

Marketplaces / Forbes: Social-commerce site Flip has acquired Curated for $330 million in stock to further its mission of putting people at the center of online shopping.

The brand collectors: how IP managers are taking over fashion

Marketplaces / WWD: Authentic, WHP and Marquee have already reshaped the fashion landscape by focusing on intellectual property.

Latest Update (7/10), presented by Bold Metrics. All brands are updated with the secondary interest poll. The ninth update of 2024 sees some major movers:

800+ Brands Measured

What's really happening to grocery prices right now

Vox / Grocery: These announcements might have you believing that consumers will finally stop wincing in the checkout line. Consumer prices have gone up about 19 percent since 2021, but grocery prices have jumped by about 25 percent. 

These are the 5 top performers in grocery eCommerce

Supermarket News / Grocery: This is an excellent resource for brands looking to grow distribution in high performing networks. “One of the things we studied is the idea of whether the ecommerce experience was better than physically coming into the store,” said Christian. “Is it more or less problematic? For our star performers like Target and Walmart and Albertsons, very few consumers suggest that there were any challenges or problems and that it was easily a better, more convenient experience than physically coming into the store.”

Walmart builds wide lead among US retail media networks, report finds

Marketing Dive / Retail Media: The chain saw 11 billion impressions in Q1, including strong performance offsite, while No.2 Target generated fewer than 7 billion impressions.

DTC Feature: Blackstock & Weber 

Tap in. There’s very little that’s new under a sun that shines on modern brand development; this is one trendline that may define collaborations, media interest, and investment strategy. Just one decade ago, it was nearly impossible to find a majority black-owned, preppy-focused brand. Five years ago, one would be hard pressed to find brand advertisements with models that represented the culture. And today, you can name enough to fill an autumn wardrobe for your kid’s freshman year at Boston College or Vanderbilt.

As the air of Fall 2024 sweeps across college campuses and city streets, the continued rise of “Black Preppy” culture continues to make waves in the fashion world. This movement, a casual blend of streetwear elements with the refined aesthetics of old guard, blue-blooded Ivy League fashion, reflects a broader cultural shift. In the words of Black Ivy author Jason Jules,

It’s not just about the clothes. It’s about the culture, the confidence, the community.

Nearer to the forefront of this sartorial renaissance stands one of a number of notable upstarts: Blackstock & Weber

Continue @ 2PM

A Superdrink Grift

Optimizer / DTC: It’s hard to find an article, Youtube video, or an objective scientific study on AG1 that doesn’t feel like a takedown. This isn’t one of them, though it may not immediately come off that way. I will provide my objective view of a product that I, myself, have only once consumed. I will explain why I only consumed it once. Then, I will explain what I believe AG1 to be. But first, here is what you need to know about an industry that is ripe with grifters, fake objective influencers, and excellent marketing.

AG1 just happened to be at the center of it all - for better or for worse.

UNTUCKit founder talks business innovation and future growth

Chamber of Commerce / DTC: A Harvard Business Review study found that having physical retail stores or partnerships with physical retailers was essential for profitability for direct-to-consumer brands, particularly for products that customers want to see and touch before buying.

Why Tecovas sought out physical sales first despite its DTC dreams

TechCrunch / DTC: Tecovas founder Paul Hedrick joins the Found podcast to talk about building up the cowboy boot company and what he's learned.

Solo Brands CEO sets the stage to grow its flagship stove and Chubbies fashion brand

Forbes / DTC: Metz replaces John Merris, who’d been with the company since 2018 and took it through its 2021 IPO. Metz also joined the company’s board, chaired by Matthew Guy-Hamilton of private equity investment firm Summit Partners.