Kamala Harris weighs her choices for vice president.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Today's read: 13 minutes.

Kamala tomorrow.

In tomorrow's members-only Friday edition, we're taking a deep dive into the new presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. We're going to break down her upbringing, her politics, her flip-flops, her strengths, her weaknesses, and how she might differ from Biden. Plus, I'll share my take on it all.

Quick hits.

1. President Biden addressed the nation last night, saying he believes his record merited a second term but is ready to pass the torch to the next generation. (The address)
2. The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter, with GDP growing at a rate of 2.8% from April through June. That was double the 1.4% rate in the first quarter and well above economist expectations of 2.1%. (The numbers) 
3. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech to Congress advocating for U.S. support of Israel. (The speech) Six audience members were arrested and charged for disrupting the proceedings, while protesters lit American flags on fire and clashed with police outside the Capitol. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), the only Palestinian-American in Congress, held a sign that said "war criminal" during his address. (The protests)
4. FBI Director Christopher Wray testified before House lawmakers about the attempted assassination of President Trump, revealing that the shooter researched the JFK assassination and flew a drone 200 yards from where the podium would be constructed days before the attack. (The testimony)
5. At a rally in North Carolina, former President Trump rejected the notion that he would begin running a “nice” campaign, saying you can’t be nice when dealing with “dangerous people.” (The comments)

Today's topic.

Kamala Harris’s pick for vice president. Four days after President Joe Biden announced he was dropping his reelection bid, Vice President Kamala Harris has reportedly secured the support of enough Democratic delegates to become the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Harris is now weighing her options for running mate and will likely make her selection within the next two weeks. Democrats have said that they will finalize their ticket by August 7 to meet the earliest state ballot requirement in Ohio, although that deadline may not be legally binding.

Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder is leading the vetting process for the candidates. On Tuesday, USA Today reported that the Harris campaign requested vetting materials from seven potential VPs — Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ), Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA), Gov. Roy Cooper (NC), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Gov. Tim Walz (MN), Gov. J.B. Pritzker (IL), and former Rep. Cedric Richmond (LA). Gov. Andy Beshear (KY) is also in the running, while Whitmer and Gov. Gavin Newsom (CA) reportedly asked to be removed from consideration.

Pundits now consider Kelly and Shapiro to be the frontrunners. Kelly is a U.S. Navy veteran and former NASA astronaut who was elected to the Senate in a special election in Arizona in 2020. In 2022, he was re-elected to serve a full six-year term. Kelly is also the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), who was shot and seriously wounded during an event with constituents in January 2011. Giffords and Kelly have since become proponents of gun control legislation. 

Shapiro won the Pennsylvania governor’s race in 2022 after serving as the commonwealth’s attorney general from 2017 to 2023. In that role, he was a prominent opponent of former President Donald Trump’s administration, challenging policies like the proposed travel ban on people entering the U.S. from Muslim-majority countries.  

Both men present potential benefits and liabilities on the ticket with Harris. Kelly’s image as a veteran and astronaut with moderate political views could help Democrats appeal to independent and swing voters. And as a senator from a border state, he has first-hand experience with immigration issues at the U.S.-Mexico border. While Kelly’s support for limits on gun access plays well with the base who likely already support the ticket, those views could dampen his appeal to other groups of voters. Furthermore, some labor unions have also criticized Kelly for his reluctance to support labor reform legislation. 

Shapiro is popular and respected across party lines in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state that was decided by fewer than 82,000 votes in 2020. The governor is also seen as an ascendant figure in Democratic politics for his success in defeating Trump’s challenges to Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results. However, his outspoken support for Israel and school vouchers could suppress enthusiasm for his candidacy among progressives.  

Today, we’ll explore arguments from the right and left about Harris’s decision. Then, my take. 

What the right is saying.

• The right thinks Harris’s best pick would be a moderate, though they suggest the impact of the pick will be minimal.
• Some say Harris’s campaign will fail no matter whom she picks. 
• Others say Mark Kelly would be a formidable figure on the campaign trail. 

In The Spectator, James Johnson asked “who should Kamala Harris make her running mate?”

“Harris needs to make both a safe choice that appeals to middle-class and working-class white voters, especially men, but also a bold choice – someone who can shift the dial and grab attention on the trail,” Johnson wrote. “All these possible candidates, bar one, have the same thing in common: they are white men, and mostly lean to the centre. That will be an important attribute for Harris, who performs better with left-leaning voters, African Americans, and women. Trump built a commanding 22-point lead over Biden with men; it will be crucial for Harris to whittle that down closer to the 8 points Trump won by in 2020 to have a shot at the White House.”

“The demographic groups that Harris lacks support among are looking for strength, plain-speaking, and an understanding of blue-collar workers. It will also help if they are not seen as too liberal. If the candidate convincingly embodies that, and can survive under pressure, they will perform better for Harris on the ticket,” Johnson said. “She will need to pick someone with low name recognition, but who she is confident can forge an identity for themselves nationally. They will need to embody the values and attributes that a white working-class man who voted for Trump in 2016, but Biden in 2020, is seeking, without putting off other voters.”

In National Review, Jack Butler wrote about “Kamala Harris’s Mark Kelly delusion.”

“Kelly could bring some obvious advantages to a Harris ticket. Purple Arizona is one of the five states that switched from voting for Donald Trump in 2016 to voting for Joe Biden in 2020. Kelly is not only from the state but has also won two Senate elections there. He has a reputation, albeit undeserved, as a moderate, as well as an appealing background,” Butler said. “There is another potential asset Kelly could bring to a Democratic ticket. In 2022, he ran for Senate against Blake Masters. Masters, like Trump vice-presidential pick J. D. Vance, is a protégé of tech billionaire Peter Thiel… Putting Kelly up against another Thiel protégé might be an appealing prospect for the Democrats.

“Though Vance may have underperformed statewide candidates in Ohio in 2022, he did win his race. He is clearly a superior political talent to Masters. More important: Kamala Harris is a superior political talent to… basically nobody. Harris did not even make it to Iowa when she ran for the Democratic presidential nomination. She last had a competitive election against a Republican in 2010. She is unpopular. She will have to sink or swim on her own merits. It is a fantasy that even a popular purple-state politico at the bottom of the ticket could make people forget that they would be voting for Kamala Harris.”

In The Arizona Republic, Phil Boas said “Kamala Harris doesn't scare Republicans, but Mark Kelly absolutely should.”

“If you’re a conservative, it’s not Kamala Harris you fear. It’s her running mate. That is, of course, if she chooses the right running mate. And it’s beginning to look like she could. Mark Kelly is on the short list of names for the No. 2 spot, and he’s rapidly rising as the popular choice,” Boas wrote. “Kelly’s third career would not bring much to the ticket. He’s a neophyte politician. A first-term senator just beginning to create a record. But his mind-bending first and second careers as a Navy fighter pilot and a NASA astronaut are his ticket to ride. They earned him entrée to the U.S. Senate in his initial run for office.”

“When the Republicans attack the Biden-Harris record for mass illegal immigration, Kelly could shoot back, ‘Where have you been? I’ve lived in border states much of my adult life. I’ve fought for a stronger border,’” Boas said. “Republicans are giddy at the thought of crushing Kamala Harris in November. They need to get a grip. If Harris chooses the Arizonan as her running mate, you can call the Democrats soft. But Americans will look at Mark Kelly and see a rock.”

What the left is saying.

• Many on the left think Mark Kelly is the strongest pick. 
• Some favor Josh Shapiro for his mix of policy acumen and communication skills. 
• Others say Shapiro’s pro-Israel stance could divide Democrats.

In TIME, Marvin Kalb and Garrett Mitchell made “the case for Mark Kelly.”

“The case for Kelly is shiny, authentic, and persuasive. Kelly comes with extensive military experience, helping Harris, who has none. Kelly is a decorated Navy pilot with combat experience. He is a seasoned astronaut who commanded the Space Shuttle Endeavor. He campaigned as a political moderate favoring stricter gun control and won a Senate seat from Arizona. After four years on Capitol Hill, a tough place to make friends, Kelly is highly regarded by colleagues on both sides of the aisle,” Kalb and Mitchell said. “That he almost certainly puts Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in the Democratic column is a clincher for Harris-Kelly and a coup de grâce for Trump-Vance.”

“During his Senate career, Kelly has been instrumental in several important public policy initiatives, including landmark legislation to reduce prescription drug prices and lower out-of-pocket costs for seniors; the $52 billion bipartisan package to increase domestic microchip manufacturing, and select proposals to ban stock trading by members of Congress, and eliminate corporate PACs,” Kalb and Mitchell wrote. “Kelly’s story and stature, if attached to the Harris ticket, would strengthen the Democratic quest for an election victory on November 5, ushering in a new generation of political leadership.”

In MSNBC, Rotimi Adeoye argued Harris “should choose Josh Shapiro.”

“Despite his relatively short tenure as governor, Shapiro has already made significant strides. He demonstrated interstate cooperation by partnering with New Jersey to form a task force strengthening labor law enforcement and worker protections. This showcases his ability to collaborate across state lines to achieve progressive goals,” Adeoye said. “As attorney general of Pennsylvania, Shapiro rooted out sexual abuse in the Catholic Church. Combine his background in fighting for survivors of sexual abuse with Harris’ background as a prosecutor protecting victims of sex crimes, and the choice between the Democratic ticket and one headlined by Trump, a sexual predator, is a stark one for voters.”

“His approach to governance emphasizes practical solutions and effective communication, qualities that are increasingly valued in today’s polarized political landscape. Shapiro’s success in navigating complex policy issues — such as labor law enforcement and infrastructure projects — underscores his ability to deliver tangible results while maintaining broad public support,” Adeoye wrote. “Harris needs a political ally who is not only skilled in governance but also adept at communicating these achievements to the public.”

In The New Republic, David Klion called Shapiro “the one vice presidential pick who could ruin Democratic unity.”

“On paper, it’s understandable why Shapiro is among the leading candidates reportedly being vetted by Harris. Like nearly all of the veep contenders, he’s a white male governor with a centrist reputation. At 51, he’s even younger than Harris and a fresh face, having only held his current job for 18 months,” Klion said. “Unfortunately, Shapiro also stands out among the current field of potential running mates as being egregiously bad on Palestine. It’s not just that he, like many Democrats, is an outspoken supporter of Israel—though he certainly is, having championed Israel’s war against Hamas consistently and without any apparent concern for Palestinian civilians.”

“His particular hostility toward pro-Palestine activists threatens to blunt the enthusiasm among young progressive voters that Harris has managed to generate in the past few days. It could also undermine the Democratic ticket in Michigan, where Arab American activists have cheered the news of Biden’s withdrawal and are adopting a wait-and-see posture toward Harris,” Klion wrote. “Harris has a real opportunity to turn Biden’s dismal numbers around, and has given at least some indication that she understands how… Picking Josh Shapiro as her running mate would send a very different message, and would discourage precisely the people she needs to ensure her victory over Trump.”

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism, or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

I've been donning my Democratic strategist hat quite a bit this past month, so I'm feeling well primed to evaluate Harris’s potential running mates. Here are my top five picks, based solely on how I think they would improve her odds of being elected.

1. Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ). Everything the writers we’re featuring today are saying about Kelly is correct: He's an astronaut, a military veteran, a gun owner calling for gun control, and a popular senator in a swing state. Trump does much better with men than Harris or Biden, a weakness Kelly could provide a nice salve for. He’s also a relatively new politician, which is both en vogue (see Vance and Trump) and an advantage on the campaign trail, where a lack of opposition research about him will provide less attack ammunition. The GOP won't be able to run ads like this about Senator Kelly. Finally, Kelly lives in a border state where he can talk about his proposals and approach to immigration, an issue that is one of the weakest for Democrats, the Biden administration, and for Harris in particular. If I were a Democratic strategist, I'd be pushing Kelly hard.
2. Gov. Tim Walz (MN). Honestly, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Walz. He's one of most active and productive liberals in the country, and in Minnesota he's managed to pass a constitutional right to abortion, three months of paid family leave, paid sick leave, universal free school meals, legal cannabis, free public college, automatic voter registration and red-flag laws for gun purchases, all with a slim majority in the state government. He has a military background and had a career in education as well. For progressives, he’d drive turnout, but he opens a lot of attack lines from Republicans.
3. Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA). A popular governor from my home state of Pennsylvania, Shapiro has proved himself apt at winning the hearts of both liberals and conservatives, and he leads a state that Democrats cannot win the presidency without. Some people have suggested that because he is Jewish and a staunch supporter of Israel he'd be a risky pick. Aside from being shocked that his Jewish faith is viewed as a liability, I do think the people he'd bring over would outweigh the number of voters who'd sit out over his support of Israel.
4. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI). Even with reports that Whitmer isn’t pursuing the job, I think Whitmer should be discussed more. On the one hand, I get why many think Harris has to pick a white guy — I've suggested that myself. But could you imagine if Harris tapped Whitmer? It'd be the kind of bold, high-risk high-reward choice that the media would eat up. Harris could say she picked Whitmer ignoring her gender, a kind of “anti-DEI” pick, as you could easily argue Whitmer is the most qualified candidate (governor for five years and a state rep for 15). Otherwise, Whitmer is just like Kelly and Shapiro on paper: a moderate governor from a swing state Democrats need to win. Her politics are not going to shock any centrists or moderates, and her poll numbers were considerably outpacing Biden’s in Michigan, another must-win state for Democrats. Frankly, if I were running the Harris campaign, I’d give her a real look; and I think it is a bit shallow for so many people (myself included) to outright dismiss the idea.
5. Gov. Andy Beshear (KY). Except for hailing from a swing state, Beshear checks every box. He is a moderate Democrat who can win over moderate and conservative voters. He's got down-to-earth vibes accentuated by a Mr. Rogers-like demeanor. He is from Kentucky, and is already attacking J.D. Vance for being a pretender. He won his state’s gubernatorial race with 52% of the vote in November, improving on his margins from four years earlier, and is now the most popular Democratic governor in America (with a 67% approval rating). As with Shapiro, the hard part for Democrats would be losing him in Kentucky, and as with Walz, it's unclear how he'd hold up on the biggest stage. But there is a reason he's on the short list.

Of course, I know a lot of people are also floating Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. I recognize that "Mayor Pete" is a great communicator, and when I watch his appearances on Bill Maher or Fox News I get the appeal. A lot of people point to the fact that he's gay as the reason Harris won't pick him, questioning whether Americans are ready for a black woman and a gay man on the same ticket. I'm sure that'd matter to some, but I think a far bigger issue is that his brand of politics just connects more with highly educated liberals than it does with a lot of more normie Americans that Democrats need to win over in 2024. There is a reason he didn't do all that well in 2020, and they've already got a 2020 underperformer on the ticket.

Normally, I'd give some spiel here about how the vice president doesn't matter all that much. But, for obvious reasons, I think that's a pretty dated notion — especially in this race. It's top of mind for voters that the vice president could very well end up becoming the president, especially in Donald Trump’s case, and not enough people seem to realize what a risky pick Vance is (the early data indicates he is the least popular running mate since 1980).

Harris, for now, has an opportunity to limit some of the concerns about her and demonstrate how she approaches important decisions (which we'll discuss in our Friday edition tomorrow). Her pick will matter a great deal, and it'll be fascinating to see what her risk threshold is and how her campaign views her own weaknesses.

Take the survey: Who do you think Kamala Harris should select as her running mate? Let us know!

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Your questions, answered.

Q: I listen to a few WSJ podcasts and every time there's an update regarding Evan [Gershkovich]'s situation, they mention that Russia hasn't publicly shared evidence of espionage. Is this normal/common or is it suspicious?

My first thought was that it was suspicious that they wouldn't provide any evidence. But I realized I don't know enough about other countries' systems that maybe it's common for the evidence to not be made public/findable.

— Andrew from Dublin, CA

Tangle: It is definitely suspicious, if not outright and obviously corrupt. Let’s start with the macro and work our way down. Russia has an authoritarian government dominated by its leader, Vladimir Putin. During his regime, rival politicians have been mysteriously killed, Russia’s own citizens have been arrested for showing sympathy to those rival politicians, and foreigners are commonly arrested on charges for which there is very little supporting evidence. The organization Freedom House, which rates political freedoms internationally, gives Russia a score of 13 out of 100.

In the Russian court system, due to a 2020 amendment, Supreme Court and Constitutional Court justices can be removed by the president. That means the courts are subject to a nearly dictatorial level of ideological capture. The courts have deemed the LGBT movement an extremist organization, allowing the state to jail anyone associating with it, and ordered the country’s journalist union to be dissolved for criticizing the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

That’s the context in which Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was sentenced to 16 years of imprisonment for espionage. Even in that context, Gershkovich’s trial was suspicious — and not just for the lack of publicly released evidence (Brittney Griner’s trial even had some publicly released details). Espionage cases typically last months in Russia, but the Gerhkovich trial concluded after two days of hearings. 

Taken altogether, these facts suggest what many journalists have thought since the beginning: Russia is ginning up a charge to convict an American so they can swap them for other prisoners. It fits a pattern in Putin’s Russia, and you’d have to try very hard to see this case any other way.

Want to have a question answered in the newsletter? You can reply to this email (it goes straight to our inbox) or fill out this form.

Under the radar.

Vice President Kamala Harris polls much better with younger voters than either President Biden or former President Donald Trump. In the first Axios/Generation Lab poll of young voters since Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Harris is leading Trump by a 60–40% margin. Biden, conversely, had a much slimmer 53–47% lead over Trump among young voters. 45% of those surveyed said they have an “extremely” or “somewhat” favorable opinion of Harris, while 33% said that of Biden and 34% said that of Trump. Axios has the story. 

Numbers.

• 37%. The percent chance that Vice President Kamala Harris chooses Sen. Mark Kelly as her running mate, the highest of any candidate, according to the betting platform Polymarket.
• 20%. The percent chance that Harris chooses Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate, the second highest of any candidate.
• 15%. The percent chance that Harris chooses Gov. Roy Cooper as her running mate, the third highest of any candidate.
• 2.4%. Kelly’s margin of victory in Arizona in his 2020 Senate race.
• 0.4%. President Joe Biden’s margin of victory in Arizona in 2020.
• 14.8%. Shapiro’s margin of victory in Pennsylvania in his 2022 gubernatorial race.
• 1.2%. Biden’s margin of victory in Pennsylvania in 2020. 
• 1924. The most recent year the Democratic nominee for president chose a governor as their running mate.
• 16 of 17. Since 1924, the number of Democratic nominees for vice president who were sitting U.S. senators (in 1972, Democrats’ first-choice VP nominee, Sen. Thomas Francis Eagleton (MO), was eventually replaced on the ticket).

The extras.

• One year ago today we wrote about the Hollywood strike.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was the photo album of rare bugs.
• Nothing to do with politics: The 2024 Paris Olympics begin tomorrow — here’s how to watch.
• Yesterday’s survey: 1,002 readers answered our survey about Kimberly Cheatle resigning as Secret Service director with 44% saying she should have resigned when she did. “She should not have been allowed to resign. She should have been fired immediately after the assassination attempt happened” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

Today is Elizabeth Francis’s birthday, making her the only 115-year-old in the United States. Francis, a Houston resident, was born in Louisiana in 1909, then later ran a Houston coffee shop for 20 years while also raising her child as a single mom. She lives at home with her 95-year-old daughter and enjoys regular visits from other family members. “Speak your mind and don’t hold your tongue,” Francis offers as advice for a long life. The Washington Post has the story. 

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