The Conversation - Assassinations risk wider conflict

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We are waiting to see how two assassinations, presumably carried out by Israel, are to be avenged. It seems unlikely that the Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah, which saw a commander targeted in a Beirut strike, and the militia’s primary sponsor Iran, which suffered the indignation of having a visiting Hamas leader killed in its capital, will not retaliate in some way. The questions are how proportionate the response will be and what happens after.

Asher Kaufman, a Middle East expert at the University of Notre Dame, writes that in apparently ordering the attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting that Iran and Hezbollah have no real appetite for more war. The action, he suggests, is motivated by domestic Israeli concerns: “Netanyahu’s political survival is reliant on the support of far-right parties that seek the continuation and expansion of the war and who have been openly calling for a more aggressive posture in regards to Hezbollah and Iran.”

But it is, to say the very least, a risky tactic. Any miscalculation could lead to a spiral that ends in full war on multiple fronts. As Kaufman notes, “the Middle East is in a moment of extreme fragility.”

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Matt Williams

Senior International Editor

Palestinians in the occupied West Bank mourn the death of militant Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31, 2024. Mosab Shawer/AFP via Getty Images)

With Hezbollah and Hamas assassinations, Netanyahu shows willingness to risk regional war for political survival

Asher Kaufman, University of Notre Dame

A full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely set the entire region on fire, involving Iran and its proxies, and could drag the US into direct confrontation with Tehran.

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