Kamala Harris picks Tim Walz as her running mate.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Today's read: 13 minutes.

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Quick hits.

1. Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) lost her primary race to St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell (D) in the second-most expensive House primary in U.S. history. (The results)
2. Hamas named Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, as its new political leader after its former political chief was assassinated last week. (The succession)
3. X sued an advertising coalition and its member companies saying they violated antitrust laws when pulling their ads from the platform. (The lawsuit)
4. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued an emergency ban on Dacthal (DCPA), a common herbicide used to kill weeds. The ban followed an assessment that found DCPA can cause irreversible damage to fetuses exposed to the toxin in utero. (The ban)
5. A Pakistani citizen linked to Iran was arrested and charged in New York for an alleged murder-for-hire plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump. (The arrest)

Today's topic.

Tim Walz. On Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate for the 2024 election. Walz is a 60-year-old former high-school teacher and military veteran. He represented Minnesota's rural 1st District in Congress from 2007 to 2019, was elected governor in 2018, then re-elected in 2022. Harris’s pick followed her certification as the Democratic nominee, and her selection of Walz finalizes the party’s ticket roughly two weeks after President Joe Biden exited the race.

Initially considered an underdog candidate to be Harris's running mate, Walz's stock rose over the last few weeks as he stumped for Harris in rallies and television appearances. In a viral interview, Walz introduced a now popular attack against former president Donald Trump and J.D. Vance by calling them "weird." The line has been adopted wholesale by Democrats, who have used it to claim Republicans' views on America have diverged from the norm.

"These are weird people on the other side. They want to take books away, they want to be in your exam room. … They are bad on foreign policy, they are bad on the environment, they certainly have no health care plan, and they keep talking about the middle class," Walz said to MSNBC in July. "As I said, a robber baron real estate guy and a venture capitalist trying to tell us they understand who we are? They don’t know who we are."

As Minnesota’s governor, Walz developed a reputation for supporting popular progressive policies and helping get them passed into law. In a summary of his signature accomplishments, Walz celebrates legalizing recreational marijuana, protecting abortion rights, implementing tuition-free college for low-income students, establishing automatic voter registration, providing free breakfast and lunch for school children, and expanding LGBTQ protections. He also signed an executive order that removed a college-degree requirement for 75% of Minnesota's state jobs with bipartisan support. 

Democratic insiders suggested Walz was picked not just for his executive experience, but also his background as a military veteran and gun owner who supports gun-control measures. His familiarity with voters in the must-win states of Wisconsin and Michigan is also viewed as a plus; Walz is well known in western Wisconsin because it shares a media market with Minnesota, while Michigan has many economic and cultural similarities with the state.

In the days leading up to the pick, Harris’s shortlist was reportedly down to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Walz. Shapiro, a popular swing-state governor, was the favorite of many Democratic strategists. However, he faced opposition from progressives who were critical of his support of Israel and his openness to private school vouchers (concerns shared by union leaders). Shapiro also reportedly told Harris that he was unsure he wanted to leave his job as governor to become vice president. 

Harris and Walz appeared together on Tuesday night in Philadelphia alongside Shapiro. Harris highlighted Walz’s history as a veteran, teacher and football coach, while Walz delivered some of the sharpest attacks yet against Trump, describing him as a self-serving criminal who oversaw a rise in crime across the U.S.

Immediately after the announcement, the Trump campaign went on the offensive. “It’s no surprise that San Francisco Liberal Kamala Harris wants West Coast wannabe Tim Walz as her running-mate,” Trump’s press secretary said in a statement. “Walz has spent his governorship trying to reshape Minnesota in the image of the Golden State.”

If the Harris-Walz ticket wins the election, Minnesota Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan (D) would take over for the rest of Walz’s term. Today, we're going to break down some arguments from the left and right about Walz’s selection, then my take.

What the left is saying.

• The left mostly favors the pick, suggesting Walz will bring even more charisma and energy to the ticket.
• Some say the pick shows Democrats are comfortable embracing their progressive image.
• Others worry that Republicans’ attacks on Walz will land with moderate voters.

In The Daily Beast, David Rothkopf wrote “Tim Walz is the Biden that Harris needs—same vibes, same base.” 

“Not only has Harris made the best possible choice among the excellent options from which she was choosing to run and eventually serve alongside her, she did it confidently and from strength. She did not choose a candidate to placate critics, she chose one to further energize the broad national coalition that is lining up to support her vision of America,” Rothkopf said. “The creation of the Harris-Walz ticket makes starkly clear the choice Americans will face this November. It presents two career public servants versus two men who have dedicated their lives primarily to serving themselves.”

Walz “has governed from the mainstream throughout his career and his views far more closely dovetail with the majority of Americans on issue after issue—from protecting reproductive freedom to defending voting rights, from providing lower cost health care to offering meals to needy kids in school, from protecting the climate to introducing common sense gun laws—than do those of the fascist-loving, democracy-hating extremists on the GOP ticket,” Rothkopf wrote. “Walz is in many ways the Joe Biden Kamala Harris needed on the ticket. Same vibes. Same base. Legit blue-collar roots. Solid governing record. With the addition of his teaching, coaching, military record… he’s kind of a Swiss Army Knife candidate.”

In Jacobin, Branko Marcetic said “the Tim Walz VP pick shows America’s politics are changing.”

“Walz has a record as governor that anyone on the Left has plenty to be pleased with, from putting in place free, universal school meals and paid family and medical leave to establishing a form of tuition-free public college and beefing up worker protections,” Marcetic wrote. “But that’s not what makes this pick significant. Harris’s decision to go with Walz over Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, the other name that her list had been whittled down to, is another major sign, on top of Biden’s 2020 campaign and the first year of his presidency, of a major shift in the United States’s political center of gravity since 2016.”

“By almost every parameter of conventional Democratic thinking, Shapiro was the logical, ‘strong’ pick for Harris… Walz, meanwhile, is unabashedly progressive. He not only passed measures that were economically left, but proved supportive of issues like gun control, abortion rights, and transgender rights,” Marcetic said. “It’s hard to see any of this — Walz’s transformation into a progressive, his unapologetic defense of his record, and it being considered an asset over a centrist rival — happening in an earlier era of US politics. The fact that it comes after Joe Biden… briefly governed as a progressive populist is solid proof that the American political landscape has markedly changed.”

In New York Magazine, Jonathan Chait argued “Kamala Harris and Tim Walz need to pivot to the center right now.”

“Harris does not need to run a perfect campaign to beat Trump. But at the moment, she is in a toss-up environment, and every inch counts. Does Walz help her gain those inches? I don’t believe he does. Rather than being one of the most moderate governors in America, he is one of the most liberal, and possibly the most liberal, which is why he became a hero to the far left in recent days. Walz is not a leftist, but he has adopted some unpopular positions, like providing free health care to unauthorized immigrants,” Chait wrote. “There is a reason Walz is less popular in a light-blue state than Josh Shapiro is in a purple state…  It’s because he’s less moderate.”

“The good news in all this is that vice-presidential candidates generally have little effect on election outcomes. Walz probably won’t hurt Harris much, if at all,” Chait said. “What the selection does, however, is forfeit her best opportunity to send a message that she is a moderate. She needs to take every possible opportunity between now and November to make up for that. Harris needs to adopt positions that will upset progressive activists. She needs to specifically understand that the likelihood a given action or statement will create complaints on the left is a reason to do something, rather than a reason not to.”

What the right is saying.

• The right is critical of the pick, arguing Harris bowed to pressure from progressives to snub Shapiro.
• Some suggest Walz won’t help Democrats as much as they expect.
• Others say the pick was a strategic blunder that will slow Harris’s momentum.

The New York Post editorial board said “Kamala Harris bows to the radicals by picking lefty Tim Walz as her running mate.”

“Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the most left-wing of her VP options, in the process passing over the clear best choice, Gov. Josh Shapiro of swing-state Pennsylvania — plainly because she didn’t dare cross the left by tapping a Jew. This is an utterly damning sign of how she’d govern — well to the left of Joe Biden, and even more deceptive,” the board wrote. “It’s easy to see why Harris felt so comfortable with him: He’s a lot like her — a radical who most media can and will aim to paint as a centrist. But boy, was this foolish: Pennsylvania is crucial this November, and Shapiro plainly would’ve been a huge asset.”

“The left has gone ballistic the last week against him… And Harris yielded (against her own electoral best interests) to the haters,” the board said. “The press has cheered as she remade her image, not even complaining as she avoids any event where she can’t rely on a teleprompter, nor asking when her campaign website will announce any policies… But in tapping Walz, Harris showed who she really is — a California lefty who’ll give in to the radicals every time.”

In National Review, Noah Rothman wrote “the Walz pick is a statement of weakness.”

“The elevation of Minnesota governor Tim Walz to the presidential ticket is a statement more about the Harris campaign’s weakness than about its strengths,” Rothman said. “The Harris campaign assumes that Walz has prohibitive appeal in the three crucial Rust Belt states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — that the Democratic presidential nominee has lost precisely once this century. The campaign’s sense that Walz helps shore up the bulwarks in the Democratic Party’s last line of defense is an admission that the party believes the 2024 race is still a base election.”

“Beyond Walz’s presumed capacity to shore up the party’s faltering lines in the Midwest, it is also believed that the governor’s popularity among progressives in positions of authority mollifies the more rabid far-left elements in the streets,” Rothman wrote. “This tacitly concedes the GOP’s claim that Democrats are unduly beholden to a radical faction within the party that is overrepresented in the press, on college campuses, and in online forums. This is terrain Republicans are eager to attack. Walz’s selection may foreclose on taking the campaign to the GOP’s turf, forcing them to commit finite resources to what should be safe states.”

In The Hill, Matt Lewis suggested “picking Tim Walz was Kamala Harris’s first campaign mistake.”

Walz “is the governor of Minnesota, a state that Harris should easily win. And while Walz’s avuncular Midwestern image might play well in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ states (which include Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), it’s not the same as him being the popular governor of one of those states. What’s more, by going with Walz, Harris has abandoned the generational change contrast that a Harris-Shapiro ticket would have enjoyed against Trump,” Lewis said. “There are thousands of politically homeless Americans yearning in vain for someone — anyone — to woo them… Today, that goal became much harder.”

“Walz won’t be easily pigeonholed as some effete cosmopolitan liberal — he’s a veteran and a high school football coach, among other things. And it’s also true that some of his past positions would be hard to cast as out of touch (he was once backed by the NRA). Still, much of Walz’s actual record — such as signing a law that allows undocumented immigrants to receive a driver’s license, and his response to the George Floyd protests — will be easily pilloried,” Lewis wrote. “From where I sit in the peanut gallery, this vice presidential choice constitutes her first unforced error.” 

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

• This pick will matter, and I don’t think choosing Walz over Shapiro has anything to do with Israel.
• Walz’s biggest strengths are that he is likable and will energize progressives.
• His biggest weaknesses are his actions during the 2020 riots in Minneapolis and how easily he can be framed as far-left.

I’m going to break this up into four parts: Why this choice matters, Walz as a running mate versus Shaprio, Walz’s strengths, and his weaknesses.

First, there is a robust debate about whether vice presidents change the outcome of elections, but I think they clearly do. From Lyndon B. Johnson delivering the South for John F. Kennedy to Mike Pence helping Donald Trump win over evangelicals, we have plenty of examples of vice presidents helping presidential candidates address key vulnerabilities. In Harris’s case, she didn't win a primary, is on a compressed timeline in a very tight race, and is a living example that vice presidents can become presidents (or at least nominees) pretty quickly. So Harris’s choice will have a greater-than-usual influence on enthusiasm, turnout, and perceptions about her campaign — and her picking Walz is going to move some voters. 

Second, I want to address the decision to pick Walz over Shapiro. A lot of progressives — especially the anti-Zionist crowd — are celebrating her choice. They applied pressure on Harris's team to pick Walz and are now labeling the decision as proof the party is moving left and away from the influence of the Israel lobby. Interestingly, many conservatives are doing the same: Framing the pick as proof that Zionists and Jews can no longer operate in the Democratic Party.

I think this is total bunk. For starters, Shapiro did not "compare pro-Palestine protesters to the KKK," as many on the left accused him of doing. In fact, if you listen to or read the full transcript of his comments, you'll see he was criticizing antisemitic and Islamophobic protesters, saying we have a higher tolerance for bigotry against Jews and Muslims than we do against black people. Which — actually — is a reasonable take on Americans' current cultural sensitivities.

Also, Tim Walz’s positions on Israel seem nearly indistinguishable from Shapiro’s. The Atlantic’s Yair Rosenberg argued convincingly that Shapiro’s stance on Israel relative to other candidates has been receiving outsized attention because he is a practicing Jew. To show this, Rosenberg pointed out that Walz has:

• Voted to condemn the UN resolution against Israeli settlements that Obama allowed to pass
• Participated in the AIPAC conference, calling Israel "our truest and closest ally in the region, with a commitment to values of personal freedoms and liberties, surrounded by a pretty tough neighborhood"
• Met with Netanyahu personally, and released a photo to media
• Said of campus protests, "I think when Jewish students are telling us they feel unsafe in that, we need to believe them, and I do believe them."
• Said in June, "the ability of Jewish people to self-determine themselves is foundational... The failure to recognize the state of Israel is taking away that self-determination. So it is antisemitic."

All this is to say: The left is wrong that Shapiro is distinctly Zionist in contrast to Walz and the field, and the right is wrong that Harris picking Walz is proof Zionists can't exist within the current Democratic Party. Walz certainly seems like a Zionist to me.

With that out of the way, here are what I see as the five biggest strengths of the pick:

1) Walz is a great communicator. His description of Republicans being "weird" went viral because it resonated with a lot of people in the center and the left who feel that Trump, Vance, and other conservatives spend a disproportionate amount of time talking about issues that don't matter to a lot of Americans. More generally, though, Walz is good at defending progressive positions in simple, down-to-earth terms, similar to the way Trump argues for conservative principles.

2) He’s likable. The first rule of picking a vice president is do no harm, and Harris picked a genial Midwesterner who won’t upset any particular segment of the Democratic Party. Walz first popped on the national radar for a viral video of him and his daughter at the Minnesota state fair where his down-to-earth personality is on full display. He’s just flat-out affable, and since presidential races are as much popularity contests as they are policy debates, that makes him a strong candidate.

3) He will energize the progressive base. This was the pick that the Democrat’s left flank wanted. Walz has a strong progressive track record, and the odds of the progressive wing of the Democratic base being activated in a genuine way go up with Walz on the ticket. The Philadelphia rally was a pretty shocking show of strength, with a larger and more energetic crowd than what Trump is drawing. It might not pan out, but Harris is making a strong bet that young, online, progressive voters actually show up to vote for her with Walz at her side.

4) He is very experienced. Walz survived in a purple congressional district for 12 years and has six years of executive experience as a governor. Love him or hate him, the guy knows how to pass legislation, and he knows how to work across the aisle. Minnesota's state Congress is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, and Walz has managed to “get stuff done.” That'll be a big selling point on the campaign trail.

5) Walz as a package is not nearly as progressive as some people are going to make him out to be. He’s a gun-friendly veteran. He has some low-key pro-market positions that have caught the attention of moderates. He signed the most comprehensive right-to-repair law in the country, brags about a $100 million tax cut that simplified the tax-filing system in Minnesota, and banned noncompete agreements. He is not an Ivy Leaguer, law-school graduate, or coastal elite. He grew up in Nebraska, oozes Minnesota vibes, and can genuinely trumpet populist ideas. People like Joe Manchin heartily endorsed Walz for a reason, and it’s not that he is an unhinged progressive.

Now, his weaknesses:

1) First and foremost, he was governor during the 2020 riots in Minneapolis, which did not reflect well on his leadership. He responded too slowly, downplayed the severity of the riots, excused the rioters’ actions, insisted the government should give them what they wanted, and did not communicate well as the protests escalated. Many conservatives are smartly putting this front and center, and I expect doing so will play really well with a lot of moderates. His handling of the unrest is probably his biggest failure as governor, and the biggest blemish on his record.

2) Under his leadership, Minnesota has given wide latitude to provide gender-transition treatments and surgeries to youth. This is an issue Republicans desperately want to run on, as they think average Americans will be turned off by what’s become commonplace progressive ideology. I’m still unsure how well this will play nationally (see: Ron DeSantis), but Walz opens the door for this criticism in a big way, as his state has passed some of the most progressive laws on this issue.

3) On the whole, Harris is viewed as to the left of Biden. Walz is viewed as left of Harris. I personally think both of these assessments are correct, and I think Trump and Vance can easily frame their opponents as too far left for voters. Walz might energize progressives, but I suspect he’ll turn some undecided voters and moderates away once they learn more about his record. 

4) Immigration is a huge weakness for Democrats, and let's just say Walz is not going to help. He has signed bills that allow unauthorized migrants to get driver’s licenses, joked about investing in the ladder business if Trump builds his wall, and pushed Democrats in his state to pass bills providing unauthorized migrants with healthcare and free college. These policy proposals are unpopular in normal times, but they will be especially so during the current migrant crisis.

5) He's not Shapiro. Josh Shapiro consistently gets 60% approval ratings in arguably the most divided state in the U.S. Many conservatives at least claimed that if Harris had tapped him, it would have constituted a move to the center, an appeal to never-Trump Republicans, and a signal to the country that the party wasn't moving leftward. We'll never know if Shapiro could have helped Democrats reach those voters, but I think it’s very plausible that he could have. And I’m 100% sure that, in Pennsylvania, he would have. If Harris loses Pennsylvania (and the election) by a thin margin, a lot of people will look back on this decision as a fatal mistake.

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Under the radar.

Nine staff members who worked for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) may have been involved in the October 7 attack on Israel, according to a now-completed investigation by the United Nations Office of Internal Oversight Services. In January, Israel alleged that at least 12 UNRWA staffers were involved in the attacks, which led to many countries pausing funding to the aid organization. 19 staff members were investigated, and the U.N. said it found evidence that nine were involved in the attacks. This evidence has yet to be authenticated and corroborated, but the U.N. said it fired the staff members in question. NBC News has the latest. 

Numbers.

• +11%. Tim Walz’s margin of victory over his Republican opponent in Minnesota’s 2018 gubernatorial election. 
• +8%. Walz’s margin of victory over his Republican opponent in Minnesota’s 2022 gubernatorial election.
• 54%. The percentage of bills cosponsored by Walz during the 114th Congress that were introduced by a member of the other party, the ninth-highest rate among all representatives. 
• 71%. The percentage of Americans who say they have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him, according to an August 2024 NPR/PBS/Marist poll. 
• +5%. Of those who have an opinion of Walz, the net percentage with a positive view of him.
• 56%. Walz’s approval rating in Minnesota, according to a July 2024 poll from SurveyUSA.
• 12. The number of days until the Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago.  
• 1. Since 1968, the number of Democratic vice presidential nominees who were announced farther out from the DNC than Walz (John Edwards in 2004, 20 days before the DNC).

The extras.

• One year ago today we covered Trump’s election interference indictment.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was the announcement that Harris selected Walz as her running mate.
• Nothing to do with politics: A musical about the Higgs-Boson.
• Yesterday’s survey: 960 readers responded to our survey asking if the U.S. is headed for a recession with 53% saying probably not. “Everybody needs to take a deep breath and stay steady for now. It will take a bit of time for everything to shake out,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

The Marine Conservation Society (MCS) has reported an 80% reduction in the number of plastic bags found on UK beaches. This reduction has come after a series of laws introduced in the early-to-mid 2010s in the United Kingdom that required large retailers to charge a fee for single-use plastic bags. Lizzie Price, a program manager at MCS, commented, “It is brilliant to see policies on single-use plastics such as carrier bags working.” The Guardian has the story. 

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