I started a prediction market for my weight

Hi all,

I started a prediction market for my weight on Manifold 26 days ago.

The prompt is “Will I weigh <145 pounds by Jan 1, 2025?” It will resolve to YES if my weigh-in on the morning of Jan 1, 2025 is <145 pounds.

As I write this this there’s a 45% chance this resolves to YES, and 10 people other than myself have placed trades (all people I don’t know fwiw).

I post my daily weigh-ins in a chart that’s linked on the page so you can track my progress (or lack thereof).

Not gonna lie, I ran 6 miles tonight so right now 45% YES feels like a great price to buy!

Trevor

David Perell interviews Ben Thompson (podcast)

David’s interviews are typically great, and AFAIK Ben doesn’t do many interviews. I liked that Ben admitted that he’s a strong procrastinator, and writing Stratechery gives him automatic deadlines… like the product is made for him to produce.

He said he’d be scared to write a book because there’s no such deadlines.

Patrick McKenzie interviewed by Dwarkesh (podcast)

Self-recommending.

Especially the bits about VaccinateCA.

See also (previously linked) Patrick’s writeup on the VaccinateCA saga, in all its glory and ugly detail.

Here’s one fun piece: “California, not to mince words, prioritized the appearance of equity over saving lives, over and over and over again, as part of an explicitly documented strategy, at all levels of the government. You can read the sanitized version of the rationale, by putative medical ethics experts, in numerous official documents. The less sanitized version came out frequently in meetings.

“This was the official strategy.”

John & Hank Green podcast clip (podcast)

The Fault In Our Stars author and his brother do a Q&A comedy podcast that I listen to regularly.

The link is to the last question on an episode from 3 years ago that I still listen to when I need a pick me up.

I’m not certain the comedy will transfer if you don’t know their personalities banter but it might, so I’m sending you the link.

Auld Lang Syne (podcast)

John Green reviews Auld Lang Syne on a 5-star scale. Highly recommended. Listen when you can give it the full 20 minutes if your attention.

Stephen Grugett, founder of Manifold Markets, on Patrick McKenzie’s new podcast (podcast)

This was one of the better explainers of prediction markets that I’ve consumed.

Zvi Mowshowitz on Patrick McKenzie’s podcast (podcast)

You should really just subscribe to Patrick’s new podcast. Every episode but 1 so far has been a banger.

As for Zvi… I’d tried to get into his writing but was unsuccessful. I found him very compelling to listen to however. He & Patrick will boost your sense of how much agency is possible.

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