Two related things happened in the 2024 campaign yesterday. First, a bevy of new polls came out, which showed Vice President Harris taking the lead nationally and in the swing states.

Second, Trump swerved out of his way to rewrite his position on abortion. At a rally, Trump said that his administration would protect IVF treatments and mandate that government or insurance companies pay for such treatments. Notably, neither Trump nor his campaign offered a single detail on how this would be accomplished. Would it require legislation? What legal authority would he use? Would there be an income threshold? Honestly, it's possible most of his campaign staff learned of this new proposal at the same time we all did.

Later, in an interview with NBC, Trump implied that he would vote for an amendment in Florida guaranteeing access to abortion up until the point of fetal viability.

Now, this is a dramatic shift considering Trump is the person most responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. At every opportunity, Trump brags about his role in stripping a constitutional right from more than half the country.

This is some cynical bullshit. No one should fall for this, but Trump has a big megaphone, an obsequious party that will let him say what he wants, and the eyes of overly credulous media that cannot cover his lies accurately.

Given how central reproductive freedom is to this campaign. Trump’s new/fake positions on abortion and IVF will likely reappear. Here are some thoughts on how to respond.

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Why Now?

Trump is a dummy, but he is not a political dummy. He sees the polls and despite his brittle bravado on Truth Social, he knows that the race is moving against him.

Trump also knows that Kamala Harris can prosecute the case on abortion in ways that Joe Biden couldn’t. The debate is in a week and a half, and Harris is coming loaded for bear on abortion and IVF. Trump’s debate prep team is still kept up at night thinking about when Harris rhetorically disemboweled Brett Kavanaugh.

Embracing IVF and fudging up his position on abortion is a reaction to the polls and some preemptive defense for the coming debate.

Why He Is Doing It

Trump’s motivation is simple — his position on abortion and the Republican-led efforts to ban IVF are political poison. The Dobbs decision sparked an uprising in America that fundamentally changed politics. According to Gallup, the number of Americans who identify as pro-choice is at an all-time high.

Banning IVF is even more politically toxic than banning abortion — which is saying a lot. According to a Pew Research poll, 70% of Americans say access to IVF is a good thing.

To make Trump’s problems worse, there will be abortion referendums on the ballot in Nevada and Arizona this fall. Additionally, according to exit polls, the voters who said abortion was their most important issue voted for Democrats over Republicans 73% to 26%.

How to Push Back

The idea that Trump would veto a federal abortion ban passed by a Republican or stop his Project 2025 apparatchiks from banning abortion is absurd. Almost as absurd as the idea that Trump would use the rulemaking authority granted under Obamacare to require insurance companies to cover IVF.

However, some folks might believe him. Because Trump is a rich cad from Manhattan, he doesn't have the aura of the typical anti-abortion crusader. Most voters think he is privately pro-choice, and many focus group participants claim that he has probably paid for abortions.

A few key points to push back:

1. You Can’t Believe Trump’s Campaign Promises: In 2016, Trump promised that he would protect Social Security or Medicare. Guess what? Every year he was President, Trump proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

2. Trump Didn’t Say He Would Vote for Florida’s Pro-Abortion Access Referendum: Under pressure from the anti-abortion activists in the party, Trump immediately walked back his statement. His spokesperson put out a statement saying that Trump didn’t mean to suggest how he would vote in Florida this fall. He wants to keep his position fuzzy. Since Trump’s position is that abortion is up to the states, we should assume he is voting to uphold Florida’s state ban until he explicitly says otherwise.

3. Trump Doesn’t Support Protecting IVF: Trump has refused to support, and his running mate voted against, efforts to enshrine protections for IVF.

4. Trump’s Own Platform Could Ban IVF: The Republican platform contains support for fetal personhood, which would effectively ban IVF.

Trump’s latest gambit reeks of desperation. It’s obviously a lie. But if the last nine years taught us one lesson, it’s that we can’t count on the media to effectively call out those lies. It is up to us.