Earlier this week, I wrote about how Kamala Harris energized young women and built a historically large gender gap. Trump is freaking out about the change in the race and erratically trying to appeal to women with a ridiculous proposal on government-funded IVF and a brief flirtation with voting against Florida’s six-week ban.

There is, of course, another side to this story.

A gender gap this significant means that Harris has strong support from women, but it also means that Trump has strong support from men. Democrats typically do better with women, and Republicans do better with men. Since there are more women than men (and they turn out at higher rates), this benefits Democrats. It’s why they have won the popular vote in all but one presidential election since 1988.

The gender gap in this race is not surprising. Kamala Harris is popular, broadly appealing and inspiring. She is running against a misogynist found by a jury to have committed rape in the first presidential election after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Notably, however,  the gender gap is the largest among Gen Z voters.

Young Voter Divide

Young voters are generally considered a pro-Democratic monolith. If young voters turn out, Democrats win. For a long time that was the case. In 2008, Obama won voters under 30 by 34 points. Young women were slightly more pro-Obama than young men, but Obama still won young men by 27 points. In subsequent elections, young men have been more Republican but Democrats still won them.

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