Tangle - Ukraine strikes deeper into Russia.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Today's read: 13 minutes.

New episode of The Undecideds & DNC video.

• This year, we are following five undecided voters as part of our limited podcast series The Undecideds. On Monday, we released episode 6 discussing the assassination attempt on former President Trump, JD Vance’s VP nomination, Vice President Harris taking over the Democratic ticket, and how these events are shaping their vote. Listen here.
• We are going to be releasing in-depth, behind-the-scenes footage from our experience at the DNC, as well as extended commentary and some interviews from DNC surrogates including former DNC Chair Tom Perez. Check out our latest video recap from Day 1, and be sure to subscribe to the channel so you get updates when new videos come out:

Quick hits.

1. A 14-year-old shooter killed four people (including two teachers and two students) and wounded nine others at a high school in Winder, Georgia. (The shooting)
2. President Biden is reportedly set to block Japan's Nippon Steel from a $14.9 billion purchase of U.S. Steel. The deal has been opposed by the United Steelworkers union. (The report)
3. The U.S. Justice Department accused RT (formerly Russia Today), a state media network, of spending millions of dollars to recruit social media influencers. (The indictment)
4. U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level in over three years, adding to the likelihood the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. (The numbers)
5. Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris proposed raising the capital gains tax to 28% for those earning $1 million or more, lower than the 39.6% rate proposed by President Joe Biden in his fiscal 2025 budget. (The proposal) 

Today's topic.

The latest in the Ukraine-Russia war. On Tuesday, two Russian ballistic missiles hit a military institute and a hospital in Poltava, Ukraine, killing 51 and injuring 271, according to Ukrainian officials. The attack was the deadliest strike on Ukraine this year. On Wednesday, another Russian strike in Lviv killed seven civilians. Russia’s latest attacks follow a Ukrainian ground incursion into Russia. On August 6, Ukrainian troops entered Kursk, a Russian region north of Ukraine. Four weeks later, Ukraine still maintains a ground presence in Kursk as well as control of about 500 square miles and 100 settlements. Last week, Ukraine launched a drone strike on an oil depot in Russia’s Kirov region about 700 miles north of Ukraine, the deepest strikes into Russian territory since Russia invaded Ukraine two and a half years ago.

Russia’s recent attacks on Poltava in central Ukraine and Lviv in the far west of the country represent a continuation of Russian strikes deep into Ukraine’s interior. In late August, a “massive attack” by Russia temporarily incapacitated parts of Ukraine’s power grid and water service, impacting 15 regions and threatening the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant dam that, if compromised, could displace millions of civilians. On Monday, Russia launched 35 missiles and 23 attack drones at Ukraine’s capital Kyiv; Ukrainian defenses intercepted most of the barrage, but the attack spurred NATO member nation Poland to activate its defenses.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made significant changes to government leadership ahead of a planned visit to the United States. Dmytro Kuleba, who has served as Ukraine’s foreign minister since 2020, submitted his resignation Wednesday morning. The day prior, arms chief Oleksandr Kamyshin, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska, Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets, and Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna also submitted their resignations. 

Zelensky’s plan is likely to involve newly arrived F-16s and a drive for the United States to lift its ban on long-range weapons usage, on top of the strikes deeper within Russian territory that began last month. While specifics remain unknown, greater latitude to strike back against Russia appears to be the centerpiece of the new Ukrainian strategy. Speaking at a forum on Tuesday, Zelensky indicated that the Kursk incursion was the first part of a four-part plan for victory. The second stage would secure Ukraine’s "strategic place in the security infrastructure of the world," Zelensky said. Stage three would pursue a "powerful package of forcing Russia to end the war in a diplomatic way," and the fourth step would be economic. 

Despite Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk, Russia maintains a significant degree of control on the front in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have gained 93 square miles in August in the eastern Donetsk region, according to the OSINT Telegram channel Deep State, and are poised to threaten the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. 

The developments in the war, in particular the recent attacks in Lviv and Poltava, have put the United States’s support for Ukraine back into the spotlight. “This assault is a tragic reminder of Putin’s ongoing and outrageous attempts to break the will of a free people,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “Make no mistake: Russia will not prevail in this war. The people of Ukraine will prevail.”

Today, we’ll get into what the right and left are saying about the latest in the war, as well as some views from abroad. Then, I’ll give my take.

What the right is saying.

• The right is mixed on the status of the war, with some questioning the strategy behind Ukraine’s recent offensive. 
• Others say the U.S. needs to maintain its support for Ukraine at this critical juncture.

In The Hill, Andrew Latham called the Kursk incursion “a fool’s errand that may allow a Russian victory.”

“Ukraine’s Kursk operation has, unfortunately, devolved into a fools’ errand — a glorified light-cavalry raid or medieval chevauchée that has diverted Ukrainian energies away from the center of gravity in the war against Russia. Rather than drawing Russian forces away from more critical battlefronts in Donetsk, the incursion has dispersed Ukrainian forces, allowing the Russian military to focus on the current center of gravity in this conflict and accelerate its push towards the strategically vital city of Pokrovsk.”

“Although bold maneuvers and psychological operations may have their place, the primary objective for both sides remains control over strategically significant territory. This is why Ukraine must reassess its strategic priorities,” Latham wrote. “The war has already taken a heavy toll on Ukrainian forces, and the risks of overextension are becoming increasingly apparent. By reinforcing key positions and ensuring that every move is calculated and purposeful, Ukraine can better withstand Russian advances and protect its territorial integrity.”

In The New York Post, Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth said “Zelensky’s Kursk offense blows up Harris-Biden’s Russia ‘reset’ dreams.”

“Zelensky finds himself needing to take his case directly to the American people amidst a presidential election cycle that is relegating Ukraine to the rear. His upcoming trip to New York to attend the UN General Assembly is another Gettysburg-like ‘fix bayonets’ moment for Ukraine’s leader. He has the Kremlin on its heels and knows the time is now to press his advantages: momentum, initiative and maneuver,” Sweet and Toth wrote. “Zelensky only needs American weapons systems and the authority to use them to close the deal — and some American backbone, too.”

“The Harris-Biden administration’s restrictions on US weapons — and the weapon systems of other NATO countries — for defensive purposes only is a failed technique. The war continues to escalate as the West clings to the idea of wrangling some sort of negotiated outcome that will allow Washington to ‘reset relations with Moscow,’” Sweet and Toth said. “It’s time for Washington to get firmly behind Zelensky and his generals and bring this war to a just conclusion. Absent Biden’s own plan to win the war or a clearly defined definition for victory, the Harris-Biden administration would be well served to listen and act on the Zelensky proposal.”

What the left is saying.

• The left remains supportive of the Ukrainian war effort, arguing the Kursk incursion represents a turning point in the conflict. 
• Some say the road ahead is perilous but Ukraine is showing it can still win.

In The New York Times, Serge Schmemann suggested “Putin is getting rattled.”

“In purely military terms, Ukraine’s surprise incursion of Russia earlier this month is a dubious gamble… The more significant potential of the invasion lies on the other front — that of information, propaganda, morale, image and competing narratives. That is where the fight is being fought to keep the West involved, to keep Ukrainians hopeful and to get Russians worried about the toll of the war in lives and treasure,” Schmemann wrote. “By moving into Kursk, Ukraine’s military has loudly advertised its boldness just when it looked like its troops might never regain the initiative.”

“Just as important, Ukraine’s move into Kursk highlights the inherent contradiction in Mr. Putin’s propaganda, which portrays the conflict as a proxy war against Western powers trying to deny Russia its destiny, and one in which a calm, united and prosperous Russia is certain to prevail. But that illusion falls apart once Ukrainian forces have succeeded in slicing into Russia and forcing tens of thousands of Russians to flee their homes.”

In The Washington Post, Max Boot wrote about how Ukraine is “upending assumptions.”

“The success of the Kursk offensive has offered a welcome boost to Ukrainian morale after nearly two years in which the front lines have barely budged, even as casualties have piled up on both sides. Meanwhile, an analysis of Russian social media posts suggests that public attitudes toward Vladimir Putin have turned more negative as a result of the Ukrainian advance,” Boot said. “But like all military operations, this one is a gamble, and the Kursk offensive comes at a cost. While Ukrainian troops are advancing into Russia, they are falling back in their own territory.”

“Whatever happens in Kursk, the success the Ukrainians have so far enjoyed reveals that Russian red lines are not as menacing as President Joe Biden seems to imagine in setting sharp limitations on the use of U.S. weaponry against Russian territory,” Boot wrote. “It’s time for fresh thinking at the White House too — and for the administration to finally deliver the strategy for victory in Ukraine that Congress mandated as part of its last aid package in April.”

What international writers are saying.

• Ukrainian writers praise the military’s recent advances and say Zelensky should continue putting pressure on Putin.
• Other writers abroad call on Western leaders to increase arms support to Ukraine.

In USA Today, Oleksandr Musiienko wrote about the “tasks” ahead for Ukraine.

“In our war with Russia, the Ukrainian offensive into the Russian Kursk region demonstrates that after more than two years, Ukraine is still capable of winning,” Musiienko said. “The Ukrainian armed forces face the following military tasks: stopping the enemy's advance, inflicting maximum losses and preventing Russian forces from achieving operational-strategic successes. The approach to achieving this is clear: Redeploy additional forces to the east, work with our Western partners to obtain more weapons, apply them on the battlefield and thereby halt the enemy.”

“Forcing Putin to make concessions can only be achieved through military pressure. This is exactly what is happening now. It is also important to demonstrate the weakness of Putin's power in Russia, exposing the true nature of his dictatorial regime,” Musiienko said. “When the conquest of foreign territories means more than protecting one's own, when Putin's army kills civilians in Ukraine and does not defend its own people on its own territory, the internal political problems of Russia become apparent to everyone.”

The Observer editorial board argued “Putin’s retaliation against Ukraine must persuade Biden to relent over arms.”

“The huge waves of lethal Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities last week had three main aims. One was to re-terrorise a civilian population grown accustomed to a certain level of attrition… Russia’s second objective was to exact revenge for Ukraine’s audacious military incursion into its Kursk region,” the board wrote. “Challenging this idea that Ukraine can survive and win seems to be Putin’s third objective. The Russian president hopes to frighten governments, such as Germany’s, where fears about spillover run deep, and convince western opinion that continued assistance is futile.”

“It is vital that US president Joe Biden reverse his opposition to Kyiv firing US-supplied Atacms long-range rocket artillery at airfields and bases deep inside Russia from which the murderous attacks are being launched,” the board said. “Despite the Kremlin’s claims, this would not amount to a declaration of war between the west and Russia. Nor would it lead to a nuclear brink, as Biden fears. Russia constantly [ups] the verbal ante, but its actions are more circumspect. Putin is dangerous but not suicidal.”

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

• Ukraine’s incursion could mark a turning point in the war, but it remains to be seen how they’ll navigate impending challenges. 
• Russia still maintains key military advantages despite recent Ukrainian gains. 
• Domestically, we seem to have forgotten about the war, but I fear the worst-case scenario is playing out. 

In September of 2022, I wrote a media critique about the coverage of this war that I'd like to reiterate right now:

I hate the media narratives that treat war — death, bombings, prisoners, torture, hunger — like a football game. Momentum and surprises and comebacks and advances. It's not that. Remember: We aren't talking about the war-ravaged eastern part of the country here. Ukraine's ’success’ is that they have retaken thousands of square miles of territory that were peaceful and intact just a few short months ago. It has taken tens of thousands of dead and wounded, billions of dollars of military aid, and months of unbelievably grim warfare to get back to something close to neutral in one corner of the country.

Anyone who has been following my writing since the beginning will not be surprised about my feelings today.

First, and primarily, my hope is that Ukraine's incursion into Russia can change the fundamentals of this war. Remember: Russia started this. It invaded Ukraine because Vladimir Putin believes a country of 40 million people belongs to Russia — Putin has not been shy about his motivations. One of the great injustices of the war has been that Putin can invade Ukraine, turn life to hell for its millions of citizens, and then lie to his own people with impunity about what is going on. Ukraine's incursion into Russian-controlled territory changes that — it brings the war to Russian citizens in a way that cannot be avoided.

I don't know what Ukraine's strategy is (and perhaps that is intentional). Perhaps it wants to change the front lines of the war, drawing Russian forces away from Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Maybe it wants to take Russian territory for future armistice negotiations. Maybe it simply wants to inflict some of the same horror and terror it is experiencing onto Russian citizens, or give a morale boost to its military, or a bit of all of the above. In any case, it's hard not to admire the resolve of its army — two and a half years in, low morale, limited support from the globe, and they can still change the "momentum" — even if just perceived.

Second, it's important not to sugarcoat where things stand. Russia responded to these advances by hammering Ukraine with a wave of missile and drone attacks that have terrorized its civilian population, damaged its infrastructure ahead of a harsh winter, and served as a reminder that Russia can do untold damage in a limited amount of time. They’ve sent the message to Ukrainian civilians that it can still get worse, and that the war is not winnable. Ukraine is not at an advantage right now — as much as I, and many people in the West, want it to be.

And for all the talk of “momentum,” it’s very possible that swing only exists in the media coverage — not on the ground. As Andrew Latham wrote (under “What the right is saying”), Russia has not diverted any of its forces to the Kursk region. Instead, they’ve turned up the aggression and range of their strikes within Ukraine. It’s worth remembering two historical tenets of Russian warfare that Putin is likely to continue: Win by attrition, and use land as a weapon. In other words, Ukraine’s offensive might look great right now, but it might not look so good when Ukraine has to decide whether to double down on supplying its forces in Russian territory in January.

Third, and finally, it is odd to consider how our own domestic politics are going to impact the future on the front lines of this war. In the UK, The Observer's editorial board described the United States as "distracted" right now, which — honestly — I think is a pretty good way to put it. Politically and culturally, the focus here is all on the Harris vs. Trump 2024 election match-up. If that focus is veering into foreign policy, it is mostly about Israel, Palestine, and the ongoing battle between protesters and supporters of Israel here at home (for example: the DNC not allowing a pro-Palestine speaker generated more buzz than Ukraine advancing into Russian territory).

I have no idea how that will impact the contours of the war going forward. Perhaps some moment will wake us up from our slumber. For instance, a new Department of Justice indictment alleges that two former RT (formerly “Russia Today”) employees have laundered millions of dollars through a media company that is bankrolling Dave Rubin, Tim Pool, Benny Johnson, and other U.S. pundits. This is not Russia fear-mongering or "hoaxes," but an actual reminder of the way Russian operatives try to influence life here at home. We wrote yesterday to be wary of Russian interference stories as they’re designed to try to divide us further — and to be prepared for them to keep coming as we head into November.

In the meantime, Ukraine's leaders are inventing new weapons on the battlefield, pleading for continued support, and doing everything they can to maintain morale at home. More than anything, Ukraine seems to be pushing for the U.S. to lift its ban on using long-range weaponry, so Ukraine can “kill the archer, not the arrow.” Like many others, I worry about the unintended consequences of such an escalation; but I also think the best thing we can do right now as Ukraine’s ally is to simply get out of their way.

It's hard to imagine how much longer the war can go on in what appears to be a stalemate. Much like Israel's response to October 7, my worst fears about how this would go down have come true. The war has spread, has moved into its third year, has likely cost hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides, and still has no end in sight.

Take the survey: Should the U.S. allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia? Let us know!

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A response to some readers.

Yesterday was one of those days where a number of Tangle readers unsubscribed from the newsletter because they didn't agree with something I wrote. When people unsubscribe, we ask for feedback. Here is a summary of the kinds of responses we got to those emails plus the responses we got to yesterday's newsletter:

• People were upset that I listed a series of Trump’s lies without listing lies that Biden has told.
• People were upset that I called Kamala Harris a flip-flopper because Trump frequently changes his positions.
• People were upset that I blamed the Afghanistan withdrawal on Biden because Trump’s deal with the Taliban constrained what Biden could do. 
• People did not agree with my stance that Trump broke the rules at Arlington Cemetery.
• People were upset that I criticized Trump over the Arlington Cemetery controversy because Harris and Biden didn't even go to the ceremony.

First, some quick responses to a lot of this criticism: 1) I listed lies that Trump has told recently; if you want to contest that I reported those claims inaccurately, that's fine. But don't get upset that I reported something that's true. 2) Harris is a flip-flopper, and Trump has changed his position on issues. These things are not mutually exclusive. 3) Biden bears the brunt of the blame for the Afghanistan withdrawal, but I linked to a story about Trump's role in it, as well. 4) Using footage from the visit for a TikTok post seems like a pretty clear violation of Arlington’s rules against filming for political purposes. 5) Biden and Harris were not invited to Arlington, so it's weird to criticize them for not going.

I've said this before but it is worth repeating occasionally: Engaging a wide range of opinions is the entire point of Tangle. If you are looking for a news organization where you are only going to be told things you agree with, you should look somewhere else. I am not trying to be coy about that.

Also, you'll notice that the criticisms above are coming from the left and right. Everyone who has partisan beliefs can find something to be upset about in most Tangle editions, and often in my takes. I am not trying to be centrist on every issue. I am not trying to be left- or right-biased on every issue. I am trying to give my honest opinion about what I'm thinking and seeing. I happen to believe my politics are pretty middle-of-the-road. You may disagree, and that's okay. You shouldn't run from that — but engage.

Please keep reading, and keep writing in!

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Under the radar.

As part of a suite of new economic proposals, Republican candidate Donald Trump is expected to announce that he will institute a government efficiency commission recommended by Elon Musk if elected president. The commission would conduct a "complete financial and performance audit" of the federal government, making recommendations for drastic reform, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The goal would be to identify fraud, waste, and improper payments. Trump and Musk have continued to grow close during his campaign, and the Tesla CEO tweeted his approval for the idea shortly after the story broke. The Wall Street Journal has the story (paywall). 

Numbers.

• 924. The number of days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. 
• 11%. The percentage of U.S. adults who said Ukraine was winning the war in June 2024, according to Economist/YouGov polling.
• 22%. The percentage of U.S. adults who said Ukraine was winning the war in August 2024. 
• 52%. The percentage of U.S. adults who were in favor of increasing or maintaining military aid to Ukraine in August 2024.
• 350,000. The estimated number of Russian troops killed or wounded between the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and June 2024, according to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. 
• 170,000. The estimated number of Ukrainian troops killed or injured between February 2022 and August 2023, according to U.S. estimates.  
• 35,160. The estimated number of Ukrainian civilians killed or wounded between February 2022 and July 2024, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.
• 900,000 and 1,320,000. The estimated number of active Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, respectively, as of 2024.
• 100,000. The approximate number of people evacuated from the Kursk and Belgorod regions in response to Ukraine’s Kursk incursion, according to Russian authorities.

The extras.

• One year ago today we wrote about the state of U.S. workers.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was a Brookings article on Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal.
• Nothing to do with politics: Self-driving cars navigated to a San Francisco parking lot and honked at each other at 4 a.m.
• Yesterday’s survey: 2,059 readers responded to our survey on the Trump-Arlington Cemetery controversy with 53% saying it’s a big deal and that Trump is wrong. “The pushing aside the Arlington employees IS a big deal, as it is an assault,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

On July 31, 39-year-old Robert Schock started a hike with his dog in the North Cascades in Washington state. Five days later, a park ranger found his dog — but Schock remained missing. Then on August 30, a crew working on a trail heard Schock yelling for help and was able to safely evacuate him to a hospital for treatment. “He’s in a lot of pain and he isn’t speaking very well, but he’s coherent and seemed in pretty high spirits,” Schock’s mother said. “We’re really in disbelief about this.” Cascadia Daily has the story.

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