Monday, September 23, 2024
BY MATT BERG & CROOKED MEDIA
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Most Democrats and Independents believe the U.S. should end support for Israel’s war effort or make support conditional on a cease-fire, according to a new poll first seen by What A Day.
- Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip has been one of the Biden administration’s thorniest issues, approving billions of dollars worth of weapons to Israel without putting conditions on how they’re used — even as Israel kills thousands of civilians with no end in sight. President Joe Biden has failed to secure a cease-fire deal as Israeli and Hamas leaders routinely scuttle negotiations. Vice President Kamala Harris telegraphed that she’ll continue Biden’s policy toward the conflict if she wins in November, even though the majority of voters in their own party don’t agree with it.
- Democrats (67 percent) and Independents (55 percent) think the U.S. should end support for Israel’s war in Gaza or make support conditional on reaching a cease-fire, according to a poll conducted by the Institute for Global Affairs. Only 8 percent of Democrats think the U.S. should unconditionally support Israel, compared to 42 percent of Republicans. A plurality of Democrats also choose the Israel-Gaza war as the Biden administration’s biggest foreign policy failure.
- We’re two weeks away from the war’s one-year mark, and the Biden administration hasn’t backed away from supporting Israel. The White House has rebuffed calls from Democratic lawmakers and scores of activists to limit assistance to the country, which has been repeatedly accused of committing war crimes. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East are skyrocketing as Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants seem close to an all-out war (Israeli airstrikes killed hundreds of people in Lebanon on Monday). The U.S. is sending additional American troops to the region, the Defense Department announced on Monday, without providing numbers or what they’ll do.
- IGA’s poll was distributed online by YouGov to 1,835 Americans in the U.S. between August 15 and August 22. The margin of error for national findings is 3.9 percent.
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A slim majority of Americans believe Kamala Harris would be a stronger leader on foreign policy than former President Donald Trump, the poll also found.
- Nationally, Harris is seen as a better choice when it comes to improving Washington’s reputation on the world stage (53 percent vs. 47 percent), being a strong leader (52 percent to 48 percent), and avoiding sending American troops into unnecessary conflicts (52 percent to 48 percent). In swing states, however, Trump narrowly leads Harris on each of these issues. That should be taken with a grain of salt: The margin of error for these states ranges from 5.6 percent to 6.6 percent.
- Despite having little foreign policy experience, Harris has been endorsed by hundreds of former national security officials in recent weeks — because they think Trump “endangers” democracy. But frustration with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war could hurt Harris in swing states, most notably Michigan, where a poll found that Arab-American voters prefer Trump and Green Party candidate Jill Stein over her.
- “Independents' desire to end the war in Gaza presents an opportunity for the Harris campaign,” Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at IGA, told What A Day. “She said in the debate she wants the war to end ‘immediately,’ so it appears she would strengthen her candidacy if she can demonstrate she has the potential, not just the willingness, to actually end it.”
Israel has long been Washington’s closest partner in the Middle East, but the past year could change the trajectory of that relationship: “She can appeal to a new generation of voters for whom thoughtful criticism Israel's government is neither taboo nor political suicide,” Hannah added. “She doesn't need to cede the anti-war message to Trump.”
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She’s up! She’s down. She’s up! We’re hyperventilating!
Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by 5 percentage points nationally, according to an NBC News poll released on Sunday. While that poll falls firmly within the margin of error, it’s still a notable shift from when Trump was leading President Joe Biden by 2 percentage points in July, and there was not a single month of Biden’s presidential campaign in which he led the former president.
One day later, the good vibes were tempered. New polls from the New York Times/Siena College show that Trump has opened up a lead in Arizona and is still ahead in Georgia, two swing states he lost to Biden last time around. Harris barely trails Trump in North Carolina, which hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 2008. She’s also ahead in Wisconsin, per another new poll.
The election is likely to be decided by slim margins in a handful of states (Pennsylvania, we’re looking at you!!!), which is always a bit disheartening considering the last time Republicans won the popular vote was 20 years ago. Gotta love the electoral college! |
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In partnership with Crooked Ideas’s Anti-Doom Initiative: a conversation about the climate crisis that centers on progress, not panic.
New York City is hosting Climate Week. A partnership between the city, the United Nations, and a nonprofit, its public events include birdwatching and climate-themed films, along with closed-door meetings of climate leaders. So it’s a good time to check in on the Inflation Reduction Act — a landmark law authorizing $120 billion in pots of climate spending, large and small. Here’s what the “most significant climate investment in history” has done so far: The Biden-Harris administration has awarded $90 billion in grants and credits to every state for clean energy and other climate projects, with another $30 billion still to hand out.
Investing in cutting carbon has broad economic value, according to Trevor Higgins at the Center for American Progress, helping combat inflation and boosting the middle class. “This is an exceptionally strong record,” Higgins testified last week. “The Inflation Reduction Act is living up to its name.” And the IRA has spurred a 71 percent increase in business and consumer climate-related investment, compared to the two years before the law was passed, according to the environmental-focused think tank Rhodium Group.
It’s not perfect — aggressively scheduled projects have run into local opposition, including from some states who tried to reject funding for political reasons. And conservatives have hammered the IRA on the campaign trail, threatening to repeal it.
But the law has been insistently popular: In fact, worried that private companies in their districts would suffer if their IRA-juiced energy projects were put on pause, 18 House Republicans asked House Speaker Mike Johnson to save energy tax credits — and Johnson has signaled a softer stance as a result. Experts say it’s clear repealing this legislation could have severe consequences, and replacing it with Project 2025, the conservative vision for climate would be, in the understated words of the League of Conservation Voters, “real bad.”
This week we’ll share stories from people and places starting to see what the Inflation Reduction Act’s pots of money are doing — both for people and their ecosystems. Tomorrow we’ll meet one former contractor who’s going to train a corps of people to move and raise buildings against coming floods.
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Several of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s (R-NC) top aides resigned following the bombshell reports that their boss supported bringing slavery back and posted appalling messages on a porn site. Since he’s looking for new staff, might we suggest that Laura Loomer would be a great fit!
California is suing ExxonMobil after accusing the oil giant of lying about plastics being recyclable for decades, saying it engaged in “a decades-long campaign of deception that caused and exacerbated the global plastics pollution crisis.” The fossil fuel industry? Possibly doing something unethical? Well, now we’ve heard it all. |
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CFR Spotlights Foreign Policy in the U.S. Presidential Election
In the run-up to the November presidential election, the Council on Foreign Relations has launched Election 2024, an initiative that offers a wide range of resources–including a content hub, candidate tracker, podcasts, videos, and more–to help voters better understand the critical international issues at stake.
Elections matter. Leaders matter. The world matters.
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The world could start seeing a decline in carbon emissions starting this year, according to new research from two major research firms. We have renewable energy and a decline in fossil fuel use to thank for that. Meanwhile, Trump is still in love with coal.
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