We are truly in the final stretch of this election. Believe it or not, in some states, people are already voting. Every single day, more people tune into the election. My less political friends and family have started asking me about politics — what do I think of the candidates? Where does Kamala Harris stand on the issues? And, of course, could Donald Trump really win again?

This election will be won or lost with persuasion. In the media, the commonly understood image of a prototypical undecided voter is a fickle white person who is economically liberal but socially conservative and just can’t decide which of their political itches to scratch. Those people exist, but the largest swath of the undecided universe is not deciding between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. They are deciding between one candidate and the couch. We all know those people. They are in our lives; and their numbers are in our phones. Maybe they voted for Biden in 2020 but tuned out politics over the last four years. Maybe they have always hated politics. Maybe the whole thing seems overwhelming, and information is unreliable. If we can convince them to get off the couch and into the voting booth, Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States.

One of the core tenets of this newsletter is to use my experience and the polling to help you have those critical conversations about the election. If you find this post helpful, please share with as many people as possible.

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Here are some key points to make when talking (and/or posting on social media) about this election.

1. Voters Want More Info About Harris, Not Trump

The primary Democratic strategy of the last nine years has been to convince undecided voters of the danger of a Trump presidency. This was Hillary Clinton’s strategy in 2016 and Joe Biden’s strategy in 2020 and 2024. The polling clearly shows persuadable voters are looking for something else this time. According to a recent New York Times/Siena poll, 25% of the electorate still needs more information about Kamala Harris. Only 10% say that about Trump.

I know this seems counterintuitive. Trump has dominated American politics for nearly a decade. However, people are sick of talking, hearing, and thinking about him. There is nothing else to learn. Trump is oversaturated. While Kamala Harris has high name identification, she arrived in this campaign a largely unknown figure. The campaign has been a race to define Kamala Harris. Thus far, her campaign is winning. Voters like her — her favorability rating is up 16 points since becoming the nominee, but there is more work to do.

Conversations about politics are never easy, so think of this as a gift — you don’t have to talk about Trump. Talk about something more joyous and inspiring — Kamala Harris.

2. The Economy Matters Most

I know it seems like a cliche, but this election is about the economy. In every poll, voters list the economy — and high prices in particular — as the issue most important to their vote. It’s almost reassuring to know that some of the old rules of politics still apply. It is also true that the economy matters more to undecided voters than to more engaged voters. Therefore, talking about the economy is the most effective tactic with persuadable voters.

This is why Harris gave a big economic speech on Monday and talked economy on MSNBC in an interview with Stephanie Ruhle.

The best messages show Harris as someone who “will fight for everyday Americans while Trump will help big corporations and the ultra-wealthy like himself.”

Three proof points to hammer that contrast home. Trump wants to lower taxes for corporations and the wealthy while Harris wants to:

• Give more than 100 million Americans a tax break with a middle class tax cut; 

• Make housing more affordable by building three million new homes through a new home builder tax credit, and help more Americans experience the pride of homeownership by providing up to $25,000 for a down payment on a first home; and 

• Go after the biggest drivers of costs for the middle class – from taking on price gouging on groceries and food to lowering health care and prescription drug costs.

More specifically, Blueprint, a Democratic research outfit, asked swing state voters which Harris policy ideas were the most persuasive reasons to vote for her. Here’s what they found:

• Cutting taxes for middle-class families (chosen 67% of the time);

• Prosecuting companies engaged in price gouging (58%);

• Banning more hidden fees and surprise late charges (52%); and

• Ending America’s housing shortage by building three million new homes and rentals that are affordable for the middle class (50%). 

One final point: a dissonance exists between the macroeconomic data and people's feelings about the economy. Despite steady growth, reduced inflation, and low unemployment, more than two-thirds of voters rate the economy negatively. President Biden spent a lot of time and energy trying to convince people the economy was better than they thought. Those efforts fell flat. Instead of engaging in a debate about the present, we want a conversation about which candidate is equipped to deliver a better future.

3. Kamala Harris Is the Change Agent

Voters want change. The candidate who better represents the right kind of change is likely to win the election. In that New York Times poll, 59% of voters say that electing Trump would bring change; 52% say electing Harris would be “more of the same.” Persuadable voters tend to be more cynical about politics and distrustful of institutions. Therefore, they are more likely to support someone who will change the system they distrust. Now, Harris is running to replace the President she serves, so she is not the obvious change agent. However, there is a way to reframe the question. Harris will turn the page on the Trump-era of American politics.

In Blueprint’s polling, this was Kamala Harris’s best-testing message:

Clearly, I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump. And what I do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country.

This is a great message to share with voters in texts or groupchats..

4. Abortion Remains Crucial

The economy may be the most important issue, but abortion is also critical to a big chunk of persuadable voters. One key challenge is convincing voters that Trump will try to ban abortion nationally if elected. Too many voters think he is secretly pro-choice or that their rights are protected by state law. People need to understand that reproductive freedom is at stake in this election. Kamala Harris laid out the case in simple, powerful language at the convention.

In private polling, her answer during the debate tested through the roof and can form the basis for talking points on the issue:

Let's understand how we got here. Donald Trump hand-selected three members of the United States Supreme Court with the intention that they would undo the protections of Roe v. Wade. And they did exactly as he intended. And now in over 20 states, there are Trump abortion bans which make it criminal for a doctor or nurse to provide health care. In one state it provides prison for life. Trump abortion bans make no exception even for rape and incest. Which, understand what that means. A survivor of a crime, a violation to their body. They do not have the right to make a decision about what happens to their body next. That is immoral. And one does not have to abandon their faith or deeply held beliefs to agree the government, and Donald Trump certainly, should not be telling a woman what to do with her body.

Finally, the most powerful messages about abortion are the personal stories told by brave women like Hadley Duvall who appeared in a recent Harris-Walz ad.

I plan to update this guidance as we get new information and address other issues like immigration and Project 2025 in subsequent posts, but hopefully, this is a good start. It’s time for a conversation with that one friend who is threatening to sit out this election.

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