Top of the lyne - Black Friday: Crystal Ball 🔮
In a 2014 Guardian article titled “Surviving Black Friday: A Scientific Guide”, neuroscientist and author Dean Burnett suggests the following tips for Black Friday shoppers:
A study from the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) found that 61% of 18- to 24-year-olds are more tired than usual on Black Friday, compared with the nearly 40% of Americans who report they usually feel more tired than usual on Black Friday. If you’re looking for a rational buyer (if there even is one), BFCM isn’t the time or place to look for one. Brands, on the other hand, are a whole different kettle of fish. Brands have the luxury of being rational through the golden quarter mania. A lot of this irrationality begins to vaporize thanks to the law of large numbers - and presents crucial considerations for their BFCM 2024 planning.
Start earlyWith a lot of retailers and merchants starting their promotions as early as October, Black Friday is starting to become the less significant protagonist of an extended holiday season play. Last year, the period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday (the Cyber Five) saw web traffic drop 11%, while traffic from November 18 to 22 (the day before Thanksgiving) saw a 41% surge in traffic YoY - 10% higher than the Cyber Five period. You're missing the boat if you’re not doing an early access sale. Mobile > DesktopThis is one of those stats that’s going to seem obvious but still seems to evade the collective memory of a lot of brands. For online transactions, the preference for mobile is growing - and fast. Last year, 54% of all online sales were on mobile devices comprised 54% of online sales - up 10.4% from the previous year. Take Cyber Week as a whole - and an all-time high 79% of web traffic was on mobile phones, up 3% YoY. Further up the funnel, 10% of all referrals were from mobile social traffic. Down the funnel, conversion rates on Black Friday were 6.5% on desktop and 3.2% on mobile, while the average items per order were 3.6 on desktop, 2.9 on smartphone, and 2.9 on tablet. Buyers want options at check-out (surprise, surprise)Revenue from Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) was up 47% in 2023, compared to the previous year, while BNPL online order volume rose by 72% for the week leading up to Black Friday. Order volume from mobile wallets increased by 54% during Cyber Week, led largely by Apple Pay (54% increase) Black Friday orders through the installment payment service Klarna rose by 30% in 2023. Klarna says that 8 out of 10 shoppers found the option of paying in installments without extra cost useful. Options at checkout could do wonders for your conversion rates. “TikTok made me buy it”Of all social media traffic, TikTok climbed the highest from the previous year. TikTok's share of traffic to retail sites was up 93% compared to the previous holiday season (Nov & Dec) Facebook's fell by 4% while Instagram’s share of traffic to retail sites suffered by 8%. Workforce, meet GenZ. GenZ, workforce. Paid search is kingAcross all acquisition channels, paid search drove 29.4% of all online sales. Followed by direct visits (19.3), affiliates/partners (16.6%), organic search (15.9%), and email at 15.3%. Revenue from social media campaigns hovered at less than 5% of total sales this season, but that % grew 5% YoY. 5 categories drive 65% of salesOf the $222.1 billion spent online this holiday season, over half (65%) was driven by five categories including electronics ($50.8 billion), apparel ($41.5 billion), furniture ($27.3 billion), groceries ($19.1 billion) and toys ($7.7 billion). Retargeting pays offDrip reports that winning back previous customers and focusing on your most loyal customers were the big winning strategies in 2023, with total repeat purchases increasing 180% YoY to make up 56% of total purchases in their sample set. What does that mean for your various marketing channels?
D2C brands use Toplyne to build AI audiences of high-intent shoppers to power their retargeting and prospecting campaigns. Brands see a 35-50% lift in ROAS on Meta & Google campaigns within the 3-week free trial. Discounts are trending up
Discounts make or break a Black Friday sale. Heavy discounts offered by brands through Cyber Week in 2023 powered buying patterns that continued from Friday until the next Saturday. The BFCM week saw discount rates climb 27% globally and 29% in the U.S. on average throughout the week. The highest they’ve ever been throughout the holiday season. In a survey done by Tidio, 62% of people said they preferred a 30% discount code valid only on Black Friday instead of a 15% off gift card to use anytime. (Source) Strap in for the 2024 festive seasonIn many ways, we might be in for a Black Swan Black Friday holiday season this year. For more reasons than one:
Holiday sales in the US alone are expected to reach $1.35 trillion in 2024. The iron is hot. Who will strike it? Data sources as promised:
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