Good Morning It’s Basketball - KAT's out of the bag
Good morning. Special Saturday edition. Let’s basketball. Seeing Off a Recruit; Ilya Repin; 1879 An enormous preseason trade requires an emergency weekend newsletter: the Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected Pistons pick. The Hornets are taking on DaQuan Jeffries and draft compensation to make the numbers work. No one appears to have known that Towns was currently on the trade block, including Towns. No one knew the Knicks were interested in breaking up the Nova Knicks before they played a game together. That Randle was moved is not a stunner: New York’s cap sheet is getting tighter, Randle’s contract is coming up and it’s not clear that he’s the best talent fit with a Jalen Brunson-led team. That Towns was moved at this point: a total stunner. The Timberwolves just came off of their most successful season in decades, and beat the defending champs before running out of steam. Towns’ postseason was uneven, but he went toe-to-toe with Kevin Durant in Round 1 and played as well as you can expect overall against the Best Player Alive in Round 2 before … it all fell apart for him and everyone else against the Mavericks. When the Wolves traded for Rudy Gobert’s massive contract, it was always a matter of time before the team had to do something serious to be able to get their future books in order. This is not a high luxury tax team, not with Glen Taylor signing checks and I dare say not even with Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in place. Randle comes in on a substantially smaller and shorter contract. Randle and DiVincenzo combined make about $9 million less than Towns this season and $10 million less next season. Randle is, however, due for a new contract that could change that calculus. That’s one of the major risks here for Minnesota, that you’re either soon paying Randle what you would have been paying Towns anyway, or that Randle walks and you erase talent when you feel you are close to a championship. (Minnesota, for the record, should feel it’s close to a championship.) The other major risk is that Randle takes a couple months to come back from injury — the latest reports out of New York were that he might not be ready for opening night — and his lack of consistent outside shooting just never quite clicks with a team that needs outside shooting. Instead of optionality with two centers and Naz Reid, the Wolves end up with one true center, an old-school power forward who might be able to play up to center, and Naz Reid. Again, DiVincenzo is material to this trade. Kyle Anderson left in free agency, so wing depth was a need here. The Wolves have DDV, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid — a solid 6-through-8 inventory that includes the reigning Sixth Man of the Year and one of the heroes of the East playoffs. But those guys being 6-through-8 on the depth chart requires the starting five to be healthy. Randle is still rehabbing an injury from last season. Mike Conley turns 37 before opening night. And that’s the final bit that’s a bit puzzling right now: Towns was the Wolves’ biggest trade chip by far, and the team’s biggest roster risk is the point guard position after Conley is no longer effective as a starter. The team instead flipped Towns for a true power forward and reserve wing. For a team built around a charismatic 23-year-old, there’s a lot riding on the 37-year-old point guard this season and beyond … and now there’s no easy, clear path to fixing that. The Wolves’ front office has earned the benefit of the doubt, especially after last season’s near No. 1 finish and strong playoff run. But it feels like Tim Connelly might be a little addicted to risk at this point. Can we switch that last coffee of the day to a nice herbal tisane? On the other side, this is a coup for the Knicks … if Towns holds up under the glare of New York City sports and gossip media; if Towns holds up under a second tour under Tom Thibodeau; if Brunson can vibe with a dude whose whole existence is very, very different than his own; if Towns isn’t pulled into distraction back near his hometown; if the Knicks can defend well enough with a Towns-anchored frontcourt in addition to that brutal 1-2 wing punch of O.G. Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. There are a lot of ifs. (Important to me: Thibs has coached Towns before, at frankly one of Towns’ low point amid the Jimmy Butler conflagration, and signed back up for it.) But it’s a huge swing that could make a real difference for this era of Knicks basketball. It’s a talent win. It’s a win on paper. It solves a few problems — the center hole with Robinson still rehabbing, the Randle question, some supplement offensive concerns around Brunson — at a manageable cost. New York is rapidly losing optionality in the Brunson era after the Anunoby trade cost them two blue-chip players, the Bridges trade cost them all of the draft picks, and this Towns trade cost them their movable star. It’ll be interesting to see how Edwards and Brunson react at media day … in like 48 hours. Back on Monday with more thoughts on the trade. Be excellent to each other. You're currently a free subscriber to Good Morning It's Basketball. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |
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