It’s that time of the year again — Republicans are declaring with certainty that they will win the election while Democrats anxiously wait for the sky to crash down on their heads. This happens every election cycle, and the degrees of Republican confidence and Democratic panic are never connected to the polling averages or the facts on the ground. This is the natural state of being for the activists and operatives who occupy both parties. Every Fall, it’s the “Braggarts” vs. the “Bedwetters.” Perhaps there is a larger sociological experiment needed to determine why the irrationally confident gravitate to Republican politics and the naturally nervous lean Democratic.

Believe it or not, there are strategic reasons why Republicans publicly assert they are winning no matter what the polls say, and Democrats always hypothesize that a stunning defeat is right around the corner.

However, this election is unlike any other. The electoral coalitions have shifted, and the Trump campaign did not adjust its playbook to address the new reality.

The Old World

For the longest time, the Republican coalition was comprised of older, mostly college-educated voters who participated in every election. Democratic success, on the other hand, depended on turnout from lower-propensity voters who rarely voted in midterms.

This explains why Republicans generally did better in lower-turnout midterm elections and Democrats have won the popular vote in all but one presidential election since 1988 (Yep, you read that correctly). Higher turnout was good for Democrats and bad for Republicans. Higher turnout means irregular voters show up and dilute the power of the GOP’s hard-core base of regular voters...