Tangle - The Arab-American vote in Michigan.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

Are you new here? Get free emails to your inbox daily. Would you rather listen? You can find our podcast here.

Today's read: 14 minutes.

We're trying something crazy.

Our subscription drive is off to a great start, with 436 new members in the last 36 hours.

Appreciate our approach to independent journalism? Help us out! We’re a finalist for a Shorty Award in News & Media, and it’d mean a lot if you could take a minute to vote for us! You can vote once a day until the voting period ends on October 30.

Quick hits.

1. Israel attacked Iranian military sites and air defense systems protecting several oil and petrochemical refineries in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month. (The strikes)
2. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition lost its majority in Japan’s lower house, the coalition’s worst performance in a parliamentary election since 2009. Ishiba had called the snap election in an attempt to shore up support following a series of financial scandals. (The vote) Separately, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili said she would not recognize the results of the country’s parliamentary vote, alleging Russian interference to help the ruling party, Georgian Dream. (The election)
3. Sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. increased 4.1% in September to the highest sale rate in a year. The median sales price remains similar to the year prior at $426,300. (The numbers)
4. President Joe Biden apologized for the U.S. government's role in the Indian boarding school system, which the federal government operated for over 150 years. Biden said the schools used abusive practices on students and destroyed Native American culture and language. (The apology)
5. The owner and operator of the cargo ship that crashed into Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge in March agreed to pay $102 million to settle a lawsuit brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. (The settlement)

Today's topic.

The presidential race in Michigan. A week out from Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the critical battleground state. Harris held a moderate polling lead over Trump in Michigan after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, but FiveThirtyEight’s polling average now has her leading by just 0.4 points. Harris’s struggles are due in part to declining support among Arab American voters in Michigan, who have been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza. 

Michigan has an Arab American population of nearly 400,000, mostly concentrated outside Detroit, and this bloc was key to Biden’s victory in the state in 2020. These voters typically lean Democratic but have been outspoken against Biden and Harris’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas. This criticism has led many community leaders to withhold support for Harris or, in some cases, endorse Trump. Earlier this month, the Dearborn, Michigan-based Arab American PAC declined to endorse Harris or Trump, as did the Uncommitted National Movement, a Michigan-based pro-Palestinian group that advocated for a protest non-vote against Biden in the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, on Saturday, Trump held a rally in Detroit that featured several Muslim and Arab American leaders who have endorsed him. 

The Biden administration has repeatedly affirmed its support for Israel in the year since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack while working to broker a ceasefire between the two sides. On the campaign trail, Harris has similarly maintained her support for Israel but has also spoken about the plight of Palestinians in Gaza. Earlier this month, Harris reaffirmed her call for a ceasefire and said it was “critically important” to acknowledge “the tragedy of what has happened in Gaza, in terms of the extraordinary number of innocent Palestinians that have been killed.”

Meanwhile, Jill Stein, the Green Party’s presidential candidate, has sought to capitalize on Arab voters’ disaffection with Harris and Democrats with a strong antiwar message that characterizes Israel’s actions in Gaza as a genocide. Stein is polling at just 1% nationally and 4% with Arab Americans, but an August poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations found that 40% of Muslim voters in Michigan supported her candidacy. 

Trump, for his part, has not wavered from his pro-Israel stance, but he has tried to appeal to Arab American voters by arguing he would bring peace to the region as president. While Trump implemented a travel ban on select Muslim-majority countries as president, Muslim-American leaders in Michigan have suggested that voters in their community may support the former president as a means of “punishing” the Biden administration for its handling of the war. 

Today, we’ll take a look at arguments from the right and left about the state of the race in Michigan, with a focus on how Arab and Muslim Americans could impact the result. Then, my take. 

What the right is saying.

• The right thinks Trump is poised for a strong showing in Michigan thanks to Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. 
• Some say even a small slip in Arab-American support for Harris could cost her the state. 
• Others praise Trump for the success of his ground game in Michigan. 

In PJ Media, Rick Moran wrote about Trump’s “ace in the hole” in Michigan.

“Michigan is as close as it gets in the presidential race. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied at 47.3%. But Trump may have an ace in the hole. There are 200,000 Arab voters in Michigan. Biden got more than 65% of that vote in 2020,” Moran said. “But 2024 is going to be a lot different. A new poll by Arab News/YouGov, found Trump leading the Democratic nominee 45% to 43% with 4% supporting Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 6% undecided. That's a lot of voters that Harris won't have. In addition, the enthusiasm level of Arab Americans is way down compared to 2020.

“Biden's handling of the Arab-American problem may go down in history as the absolute most incompetent display of political acumen in American history. Yes, there was a war. But there are ways to finesse the problem and keep the political damage to a minimum,” Moran wrote. “Listen to these voters and tell me that Biden couldn't have handled it better. ‘I cannot emphasize my [disgust] with the current administration and their lack of leadership, their lack of empathy toward the Palestinian people, their lack of empathy toward the Lebanese people,’ said Abdulhakem Alsadah, 62, chair of the Yemeni American Democratic Caucus, who declined to specify how he'll be voting. No voter should ever get that angry at a candidate.”

In Hot Air, John Sexton said Michigan is “a real problem” for Harris.

“Former president Trump held a rally today in Novi, Michigan. During that rally he discussed a meeting he'd held earlier in the day with representatives of Arab American and Muslim American groups. Then several of the leaders came out on stage and endorsed him during the rally,” Sexton wrote. “I think it has been clear to everyone for weeks that this represents a real problem for the Harris camp, unfortunately for her there's nothing she can do. She can't come out and undermine the sitting president as part of his administration. She just has to stick with the hand she has been dealt.”

“Polls show [Harris] can't afford to lose these voters but it looks like it's too late to turn things around. Some will vote for Stein, some will stay home and there really are some who are moving toward Trump,” Sexton said. “Of course some Arab Americans will hold their nose and still vote for Harris but this year it may not be enough. Many Arab and Muslim Americans in Michigan appear to have given up on the Democrats this year. As Trump said today at his rally, ‘they could turn the election one way or the other.’”

In The Daily Caller, Mary Rooke assessed “Trump’s latest moves in Michigan.”

“There is no sugarcoating the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win Michigan like we need to breathe air, but former President Donald Trump is mounting an effort in the state that could end her election chances. Several issues are compounding against Harris in Michigan, making her path to victory in the state rocky,” Rooke wrote. “Trump’s campaign is targeting ‘low-propensity’ voters as part of a massive ground game operation to win back Michigan. Typically, ‘low-propensity’ voters don’t vote in every election and have to be sought out and persuaded to show up. The campaign is working on getting this massive voting bloc involved in the 2024 election.”

“Another blow to Harris is the Teamsters Union’s refusal to back her campaign after years of dutifully supporting Democrat presidential candidates. While the union didn’t support Trump either, which would have solidified the blow against Harris, its internal polling shows that Trump is overwhelmingly the preferred candidate among its members,” Rooke said. “Michigan is a blue-collar state, with about 245,000 active and retired Teamsters Union members. The internal Teamsters poll shows her campaign is not turning these people into Harris voters. In fact, she’s losing ground that Democrats had gained over the past decade.”

What the left is saying.

• The left fears that Harris’s declining support with Muslim and Arab Americans will cost her Michigan.
• Some say activists’ efforts to punish Harris for her stance on the war will be self-defeating. 
• Others advise Muslim and Arab Americans to support Harris despite their legitimate concerns. 

In The Washington Post, Shadi Hamid argued Harris’s “neglect has allowed Trump to make gains” with Muslim and Arab Americans. 

“The fracture between Muslims and Arab Americans and the Democratic Party has reached a breaking point. If recent surveys are any indication, most will not be voting for Kamala Harris, suggesting a stark shift just years after they had become a key Democratic Party constituency during the Trump years,” Hamid said. “In my conversations with Arabs and Muslims across the country, the mood has become dark and despairing. They see how the Democratic Party has ignored the preferences of its own members, 77 percent of whom believe the United States should not send weapons to Israel.”

“It is true that Harris has expressed sympathy for Palestinians in a way that Biden has not. Yet with few exceptions, she has avoided addressing Arab Americans directly. She finally did so last week in Michigan but indicated no change in approach. She acknowledged the suffering of Palestinians but made no mention of who had caused it,” Hamid wrote. “I hope Kamala Harris wins. But she’s not making it easy for Arab and Muslim leaders who would otherwise more forcefully advocate on her behalf. Through her neglect, she has allowed Trump to make inroads.”

In MSNBC, Zeeshan Aleem said “pro-Palestinian efforts to rally behind Jill Stein will backfire.”

“I am sympathetic to why a non-trivial number of voters on the left are tempted to vote for Stein. As I’ve written previously, human rights observers and scholars of genocide — a number of them Israeli — have characterized Israel’s ongoing conduct in Gaza as perpetrating genocide… That the U.S. is backing this is unconscionable,” Aleem wrote. “And yet, as frightening as it is to contemplate, things could still get worse if Trump is elected president again… Even though Biden’s pressure on Netanyahu has been wholly inadequate, his administration’s backroom negotiations with Netanyahu over letting more aid into Gaza has probably saved lives.”

“By contrast, Trump hasn’t signaled that he views anything Israel has done as wrong or that he would put any limits on Netanyahu. When he was in office, he recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, moved the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, signaling a break from long-held U.S. neutrality on recognizing Israel’s capital, and encouraged Netanyahu to pursue West Bank settlements. Trump isn’t committed to a two-state solution,” Aleem said. “Palestinian civilian lives aren’t an abstract cause; they are real and precious… Reducing harm is not just an ethical consideration, but an ethical imperative. And working to ensure the election of Trump would violate that imperative.”

In The Detroit Free Press, Ismael Ahmed wrote “I'm an Arab American activist. We have no choice but to vote for Kamala Harris.”

“I have supported those in our community and many others in Michigan, and around the nation, who voted uncommitted in Democratic primaries, and lobbied the Biden Administration to do more,” Ahmed said. “Frankly, there has not been the progress we would have liked to see. Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic presidential nominee, has indeed been more sympathetic, but has yet to put more on the table. It is no wonder that many in my community are considering sitting out this election, or wasting their vote on a third party that cannot possibly win.”

“But let me say it plainly: We have no choice but to vote for Kamala Harris… [Trump] refuses to acknowledge the occupation of Palestinian lands, opposes an independent Palestinian state and steadfastly supports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and has not decried his bloody approach to Gaza,” Ahmed wrote. “On the other hand, Kamala Harris is calling for a cease fire and a two-state solution with equal rights for both peoples… I have made my choice. I will vote Democratic, not for the perfect good, but for a better way of life, and a chance to fight for peace.”

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

• I predicted Trump will win Michigan, and Harris’s struggles with Muslim and Arab-American voters are a big reason why. 
• Trump is in the fortunate position of benefitting from Harris’s predicament while not having to defend his record on Israel-Palestine.
• In the long run, the “uncommitted” movement may hurt its cause if it helps elect Trump.

Let me start by stating the obvious: This election is close. Majority control of the Senate will be close, control of the House will be close, and the two candidates running for the White House have been in a dead heat for weeks down the final stretch. 

In that environment, it shouldn’t really come as much of a surprise that both of the major candidates are campaigning hard in one of the most crucial swing states. But the reasons that are bringing Harris to push hard in Michigan right now are certainly an alarm bell; and it’s ringing loud and clear.

Two Fridays ago, I shared my predictions for the 2024 election. In that edition, I predicted Harris was on track to lose Michigan. Here’s why:

I think the Arab-American community and pro-Palestine protesters are gaining genuine momentum to protest Harris by sitting out or voting third party. Throw in a little Jill Stein in an already close race, and Democrats suddenly have some serious problems. Michigan is on a razor's edge in a normal year, and this year Harris is facing real opposition from liberals. The polls show the state is a coin toss, and polls have rarely broken toward Democrats in recent presidential elections. Rep. Elissa Slotkin's (D) warning that Harris was "underwater" in internal polling solidified my sense that she’s going to lose the state.

Nothing that’s happened since then has changed my mind about that prediction. I’ve heard all the arguments coming from the left about why Harris is actually poised to keep the state blue, but I don’t find any of them convincing. 

Point: The situation is not as bad as it seems. Early-voting data is inconclusive, not damning, and Harris will lean on her ground game to provide an edge in the last week of the race.

Counterpoint: I agree that the data so far is inconclusive, but if the best counterpoint is that “it’s not as bad as it seems,” that means it is still at least not very rosy. Harris could still push through in Michigan, but she’s the one playing defense. Remember, Trump is dialing up the pressure there, too.

Point: Republicans had been flooding the zone with partisan polls that show a closer race than it actually is, but new polls tell a different story. Over the weekend, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showed Harris up 3, and another poll from Quinnipiac showed the same thing.  

Counterpoint: We saw in 2020 that the polls were skewed in favor of Biden to the point where polling averages showed him up over Trump by 8 points in Michigan on Election Day, and he ended up winning by less than 3. If the mainstream polls have that same bias this year, Harris’s lead will evaporate. Even if partisan polls have skewed the polling averages, some left-leaning pollsters are still showing a dead heat.

Point: Arab-American and Muslim voters are flexing their muscle and trying to exert maximum pressure on Democrats. But there is no way voters whose main issue is the safety of civilians in Gaza and opposition to the worst actions of the Israeli military are going to mark their ballots for Donald Trump.

Counterpoint: There absolutely is. A poll of Arab-American voters last week showed Trump up 2 over Harris. Amer Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan — the first city in the country to have an all-Muslim city council — just endorsed Donald Trump. These voters are showing that, if Kamala Harris doesn’t distance herself from Biden on the war in Gaza, they’re willing to make it cost her the White House.

“They really don’t know where to go. It’s like somebody hit them with a two by four, right on their head,” said Osama Siblani, who publishes an Arab-American newspaper based in Dearborn, Michigan. “So now they’re in total disarray. They may vote for Donald Trump, just to punish Biden and Harris, just to say, ‘Look what you’ve done.’”

I can’t overstate how huge of a gift it is to the Trump campaign that he doesn’t have to stand behind his record on Palestine in Michigan, but instead Harris has to try to win these voters while retaining moderates. Remember: Americans are deeply divided on this conflict; and while the situation is far more complex than a simple binary, plenty of voters will see a statement sympathetic to one side of the conflict as fundamentally oppositional to the other. Can you imagine if Donald Trump — who as president implemented a travel ban from several Muslim-majority countries — were trying to appeal to voters on both sides of this issue instead of Harris?

Harris has been tough to pin down on this issue, but Trump has not. As president, Trump moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized Israeli control of the Golan Heights, and was called by Benjamin Netanyahu “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.” As a candidate, Trump has consistently voiced his support of Israel’s right to defend itself and said he’d deport anti-Israel protestors.

During the Democratic primary in Michigan, I praised the “uncommitted” vote for smart politics. They effectively leveraged their position to put it front and center in this election, which is what any political interest group should be doing. Harris has tried to appease them in different ways — both rhetorically and through actions like choosing a running mate who wants to end the war. Now, though, Harris has been doing more to publicly side with Israel than she had before being named the nominee, and the uncommitted vote is letting her know that she shouldn’t take their support for granted. That makes total sense to me.

That doesn’t mean I think it is the right move for their cause in the long term, though. There is no way that voters concerned with the safety of Gazans will be able to exert more pressure on a President Trump than a President Harris. I understand why they feel hopeless with the current administration, but I also don’t see a world where they get anything they want with Trump. 

It’s genuinely hard to know how many Democratic-leaning voters whose primary issue is Gaza will actually cast their votes for Jill Stein or Trump, but the polling certainly indicates it’ll be enough to matter. And if these voters can tip the scales in Michigan, that could very well be enough to decide the entire election.

Take the survey: Who do you think will win Michigan? Let us know!

Disagree? That's okay. My opinion is just one of many. Write in and let us know why, and we'll consider publishing your feedback.

Help share Tangle.

I'm a firm believer that our politics would be a little bit better if everyone were reading balanced news that allows room for debate, disagreement, and multiple perspectives. If you can take 15 seconds to share Tangle with a few friends I'd really appreciate it — just click the button below and pick some people to email it to!

• Email Tangle to a friend by clicking here.
• Share Tangle on X/Twitter by clicking here.
• Share Tangle on Facebook by clicking here.

Your questions, answered.

Q: Why doesn’t the government just change [the federal student loan policy] to an interest free loan vs cancelling it? Everyone agrees to borrow the money so they were prepared to pay it back anyways. Why is the only option to completely forgive instead of meeting in the middle?

— Mandy B from Orange County, CA

Tangle: First, that’s an awesome idea — I love it. Instead of fully canceling federal student loans, debt-holders still have to repay their principal and not leave the taxpayer holding the bag. At the same time, they’ll get a measure of forgiveness that will help them climb out of debt, creating positive downstream effects for the economy. Even cutting the interest rate to 1% or 2% would be huge.

But there are two problems I see with this.

First, the legal issue. It might be strange, but it’s probably harder to find justification in the law for a president to adjust the interest rate of student loans than it is to forgive the loans entirely. Remember that President Biden used the 2003 HEROES Act (which gives the president authority to cancel student debts during a national emergency) to justify his attempt to cancel student loans en masse during the Covid-19 pandemic, and that the Supreme Court ultimately struck down that attempt. The interest rate of federal loans is defined by law, and there is nothing in that law granting the executive branch discretion to override the rate.

So, if this were to happen, it would require an act of Congress. And given the partisan divide of the legislature, the chances of that happening are basically non-existent.

Second, even if Congress were able to pass a law to bring the interest rate on their loans to zero, it may not actually help as many people as you think. Many student loan debtors refinance their loans with other institutions, meaning that if the government changes their rate, that wouldn’t affect their new loans. 

Want to have a question answered in the newsletter? You can reply to this email (it goes straight to our inbox) or fill out this form.

Under the radar.

Elections in the U.S. are far more expensive than in other industrialized democracies, and the 2024 race is no exception. Federal election spending is expected to reach $15.9 billion this cycle, the highest figure in U.S. history. On average, U.S. elections cost 40 times more per person than elections in the U.K. or Germany. Experts say U.S. elections are more costly because of the funds needed to reach voters in expensive media markets and more relaxed campaign finance regulation, as U.S. courts have consistently ruled that contributions are speech that cannot be limited. Additionally, many European nations’ elections feature candidates chosen by the parties, whereas the United States uses the primary system to select candidates, further driving up election spending. The Wall Street Journal has the story.

Numbers.

• 45%-43%. Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris among Arab Americans, according to an October 2024 Arab News/YouGov poll. 
• 39%. The percentage of Arab Americans who believe Trump is most likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict as president. 
• 33%. The percentage of Arab Americans who believe Harris is most likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict as president. 
• 38% and 38%. The percentage of Arab Americans who believe Trump and Harris, respectively, would be better for the Middle East in general as president. 
• 87%. The percentage of eligible Arab American voters who plan to participate in the 2024 election. 
• 101,623. The number of voters in Michigan’s Democratic primary who cast their ballots for “uncommitted,” 13.2% of the total vote.  
• 154,188. Joe Biden’s margin of victory over Donald Trump in Michigan in 2020. 
• 10,704. Trump’s margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016.

The extras.

• One year ago today we had just written about Mike Johnson (R-LA) being elected Speaker of the House.
• The most clicked link in Thursday’s newsletter was the cyberattack on a Georgia voter website.
• Nothing to do with politics: A “mysterious winged and horned creature” caught on camera in Bristol, England. 
• Thursday’s survey: 2,737 readers responded to our survey asking about Donald Trump’s “enemy within” comments with 52% saying they’re greatly concerned. “I think you’re generally fair but tend to give Trump a lot more leeway than he deserves. For example, when he says he doesn’t know anything or doesn’t believe in Project 2025 you take him at his word and his word means little to nothing since he lies incessantly. Saying he won’t follow through on things is a fair point but it’s also a fair point that those around him will,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

An estimated 1.2 million patients are affected by mistaken drug administration each year, costing the health care system approximately $5.1 billion. Recently, a team of researchers based at the University of Washington School of Medicine developed a wearable camera to address this issue. Software in the camera uses AI to recognize vials before they are injected into a patient, providing a warning if it is the wrong medication. Dr. Kelly Michaelson, who co-authored the paper detailing the research, said, “The thought of being able to help patients in real time or to prevent a medication error before it happens is very powerful.” UW Medicine has the story.

Don't forget...

📣 Share Tangle on Twitter here, Facebook here, or LinkedIn here.

🎥 Follow us on Instagram here or subscribe to our YouTube channel here

💵 If you like our newsletter, drop some love in our tip jar.

🎉 Want to reach 150,000+ people? Fill out this form to advertise with us.

📫 Forward this to a friend and tell them to subscribe (hint: it's here).

🛍 Love clothes, stickers and mugs? Go to our merch store!