Friday Briefing: The global stakes of the U.S. election

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November 1, 2024

	By Gaya Gupta

Good morning. We’re covering the stakes of the U.S. election for the world and Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine.

Plus, Japan’s passion for the World Series.

Kenny Holston/The New York Times

What Trump vs. Harris means for the world

The world doesn’t pick the U.S. president, but it will still have to live with the consequences of next week’s election. My colleague Katrin Bennhold spoke to Times correspondents about how a victory by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could shape the world.

Keith Bradsher, Beijing bureau chief: Whoever wins will be a hawk on China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.

Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from America. If Harris were elected, she would maintain targeted tariffs on national security grounds. Trump’s proposal is much more aggressive.

Patrick Kingsley, Jerusalem bureau chief: Israelis would vote by a large margin for Trump, polls show.

Harris would probably put more pressure on Israel to reach a cease-fire, but she would be unlikely to, say, cut off its military support. Trump would perhaps be less bothered about Israel allowing Jewish settlers back into Gaza, as part of the Israeli government would like to do. He also takes a much more aggressive line on Iran, but he can be unpredictable when it comes to issues in the Middle East.

John Eligon, Johannesburg bureau chief: There are some interesting differences in how people in Africa see Harris and Trump. Despite the fact that Trump has vulgarly dismissed African countries, some see him as a strong leader who gets things done. In many ways, he resembles a lot of autocratic African leaders.

Somini Sengupta, international climate reporter: The stakes could not be higher. The U.S. has emitted more carbon than any country in history, and is the second-biggest emitter right now after China. What it does next will affect the world’s ability to avert catastrophic climate change.

Read their full answers here.

More on the U.S. election Election Day is Tuesday. Harris assailed Trump after he claimed that he would protect American women “whether the women like it or not.” Trump has won white women’s vote in two elections. It may be an uphill fight for Democrats to stop it from happening again. More than 3.5 million Americans have moved since the last presidential election. A Times analysis shows how this has made the U.S. more polarized. In Orange County, Calif., Vietnamese American voters hold so much sway that Little Saigon has become the center of a key House race. Algoma is known in Wisconsin as a sleepy, charming little town. It may also be the most divided place in America. Stay up-to-date: Live coverage | Poll tracker | “The Run-Up” podcast | On Politics newsletter

Josh Holder

Russia is making swift advances in Ukraine

Over the past month, Russia has made its largest territorial gains in Ukraine since the summer of 2022. This progress in the eastern Donbas region will help the Russian Army secure its flanks before launching an assault on the city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub for Ukraine. Take a look at our maps showing Russia’s advance.

Half of Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine so far this year were made in the past three months. Russia’s rapid advance is a striking change from the situation last year, when the front lines remained mostly static. But that stalemate laid the groundwork for Russia’s current progress, gradually weakening Kyiv’s forces.

North Korea: The U.S. is turning to China, which dislikes Pyongyang’s growing partnership with Moscow, to try to stop North Korean troops from fighting in Ukraine.

Missile launch: North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the waters between it and Japan, its first such test in almost a year.

Emergency service workers in Letur, Spain. Oscar Del Pozo/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Middle East

Sports

Fans watch the Dodgers beat the Yankees in Game 5 in Tokyo. Richard A. Brooks/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Japan has loved baseball for decades, but Shohei Ohtani’s World Series appearance with the Dodgers drove huge interest. More than 15 million people in Japan watched the first two games, compared with 14.5 million in the U.S.

“The entire country is thrilled,” said Jun Mizuno, a bar owner, after he and his customers watched Ohtani win his first World Series, defeating the Yankees 7-5 in Game 5.

We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.

Mark Sommerfeld for The New York Times

What brought Shawn Mendes back to the spotlight

Two years ago, Shawn Mendes, the multiplatinum Canadian pop star, abruptly canceled a multimillion-dollar, two-year international tour. He had hit what he called a mental health “breaking point.” It was a startling admission, especially for a male artist with a hugely devoted young fan base: If their attention wavered, his career could be over.

It took him a long while to feel strong enough, but he slowly made his way back to songwriting. Those struggles are laid bare on his fifth album, “Shawn,” due Nov. 15. Read our profile.

Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Make: Gulab jamun, a desert soaked in a rose water, cardamom and saffron syrup, is a Diwali crowd-pleaser.

Listen: We talked to Stephen Graham Jones and Joe Hill about which scary books you should read.

Watch: “The Gutter” takes its place in the (admittedly, quite small) pantheon of great bowling comedies.

Travel: How a British Airways pilot spent 24 hours in Mumbai.

Shop: Trench coats can make a fashion statement and be functional. Here’s how to choose one.

Play: Spelling Bee, the Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here.

That’s it for today. See you on Monday. — Gaya

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