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Companies prepare to raise prices if tariffs happen...
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November 02, 2024 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

Pendulum

Good morning. Best of luck to everyone running the New York City Marathon tomorrow, including our Morning Brew colleagues Toby, Macy, and more. It’s the biggest marathon in the world, with a field of 50,000+ runners and a route that spans five bridges and all five boroughs.

The average finishing time for last year’s race was about 4 hours and 40 minutes, which is also how long your co-worker who ran will talk about it on Monday.

—Sam Klebanov, Molly Liebergall, Dave Lozo, Matty Merritt, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

18,239.92

S&P

5,728.80

Dow

42,052.19

10-Year

4.361%

Bitcoin

$69,397.95

Amazon

$197.93

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks swung back up to end the week as investors shrugged off yesterday’s expectedly-volatile jobs report to power all three indexes higher. Leading the way was Amazon, which beat earnings estimates thanks to gains in cloud computing and advertising.
 

ECONOMY

Companies are bracing for Trump tariffs

Shoppers facing high prices Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump promises a protectionist bonanza if he returns to the White House, with a 60% duty on Chinese imports and a 10–20% tariff on goods from the rest of the world.

American companies are treating the tough tariff talk as seriously as you’d treat a “call me now” text from your landlord. They’re preparing by stocking up on imported inventory, moving supply chains out of China, and planning to raise prices on consumers in the event that the campaign rhetoric becomes a reality.

Pricey tariffs

Trump says steep tariffs will benefit domestic producers and encourage foreign manufacturers to set up shop in the US, assuring that higher import costs will be borne by foreign companies that send goods to the US.

But while some Made in USA purveyors would benefit, and foreign producers might offer American businesses discounts to offset the tariffs, US companies in import-dependent industries will be the ones on the hook for the import duties—and they are already saying they expect to pass on the extra costs to their customers.

  • “It’s going to be very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans,” Columbia Sportswear CEO Timothy Boyle told the Washington Post.
  • The publication points out that autoparts seller AutoZone told investors that it will raise prices, even before it knows what the tariffs will be.

The Trump campaign claims pundits were too bearish on the tariffs enacted during his first term—but economists note they were more limited and still led to price increases.

Big picture: Economists estimate that American household costs will rise by about $1,700 to $4,300 per year if Trump acts on his tariff promises, per PolitiFact. They warn that rising inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, resulting in elevated mortgage rates and pricey auto loans. Some experts believe that the recent rise in mortgage rates is partially tied to expectations of a Trump victory.—SK

   

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Search and rescue effort in Spain after deadly floods David Ramos/Getty Images

The death toll from flash floods in Spain rose to over 200. In what has been described as the worst natural disaster in Spain in decades, at least 205 people have died as a result of floods caused by torrential rain in the eastern Valencia region, the Associated Press reported. More rain is expected, which not only adds to the dangerous conditions, but could complicate ongoing search and rescue efforts, officials said. Most of the victims were caught unaware, as rivers suddenly overflowed into villages, flooding roads and homes. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the disaster is a reminder that Europe remains unprepared for the effects of climate change.

Trump is suing CBS over Harris’s 60 Minutes interview. The former president is seeking $10 billion in damages, alleging that the network engaged in “election interference” by editing its interview with Vice President Kamala Harris last month. CBS denied the allegation, saying it did not doctor the interview and presented it fairly. Trump was also slated to appear for an interview in the same episode as Harris, but reportedly canceled over disagreements over fact-checking. He has unsuccessfully tried to sue other outlets, like CNN and the New York Times, for coverage that he claimed defamed him.

Marc Benioff is reportedly in talks to sell Time for $150 million. The billionaire Salesforce co-founder, who bought the ailing US magazine for $190 million in 2018, is discussing a sale to Greek media company Antenna Group, CNBC reported. Once one of the most iconic weekly magazines in the US, Time has been forced to drastically cut its print circulation as news consumption shifts to the internet. Benioff bought Time from the media conglomerate Meredith Corporation, which owned the magazine for less than a year. The talks to sell Time again come a day after Comcast said it was exploring a sale of its traditional cable networks.—AE

AI

Big Tech is spending a nation’s worth of cash on AI

Google, Apple, Amazon Getty

Happy belated earnings week to the titans of Silicon Valley: Apple, Amazon, Google, and Meta all reported their recent financials in the past few days, revealing that the screen-time quartet will collectively drop a record $200+ billion this year kicking their AI investments into high gear.

They’re trying to convince investors this is worth it. After its AI-related earnings disappointed Wall Street last quarter, Big Tech doubled down in the latest period:

  • Amazon spent $22.6 billion on property and equipment like data centers and chips. That’s an 81% spike from the same time last year.
  • Meta raised its low-end guidance for capex (capital expenditures), which could reach $40 billion by the end of the year. It beat earnings estimates, even with AR glasses subsidiary Reality Labs costing $4.4 billion in operating losses.
  • Apple is still betting on Apple Intelligence to boost sales. Most revenue came from the new iPhone 16, Apple Watch, and AirPods, but Apple services like TV+ and iCloud also grew massively to account for a quarter of the business.
  • Google crushed earnings estimates and revealed that more than 25% of all new code it writes is generated by AI (and reviewed by engineers).

Looking ahead…all of the companies intend to maintain or boost their capex budgets next year.—ML

   

Together With Uber

Uber

RETAIL

Freedom isn’t free, but some Election Day deals are

Krispy Kreme donuts Scott Olson/Getty Images

Your candidate may not win, but at least you will get free donuts. While it’s illegal to offer financial incentives to vote in a federal election, these Election Day perks and promos skirt the law because they are open to everyone.

In 2020, 2.4% of potential voters failed to do their civic duty because they couldn’t get to a polling place, according to a Census survey. Here are the companies working to lower that number:

  • Uber and Lyft: 50% discounts on trips to the polls, up to $10 (this also includes Lyft’s bikes and scooters)
  • Hertz: A free rental day for anyone that rents a car for two days before Election Day

Many cities offer no-cost transportation to the polls, so be sure to look into what your area is offering.

Treat yourself

Once you’ve nourished democracy, you can nourish yourself at a host of eateries. Here’s some of what’s being offered:

  • Krispy Kreme: A free donut and “I Voted” sticker
  • Johnny Rockets: A free milkshake with an in-store purchase and proof of voting
  • Uber Eats: 25% off, up to $15, on orders with a minimum of $25

Zoom out: Election Day lacks federal holiday status, but more than 2,000 companies have pledged to give employees paid time off through the non-partisan coalition Time To Vote. Free child care is available to parents who need a couple hours to venture to the polls in several states, including swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.—DL

   

STAT

Prime number: Running unopposed

I Voted sticker 24K Production/Getty Images

Lost your high school student council secretary election to a more popular kid? It’s never too late to redeem yourself—nor has it ever been this easy. Roughly 7 in 10 elections in the US this year are uncontested, according to the nonprofit group BallotReady, which assessed nearly 45,000 races, and found that if you want to be your town’s water management officer, you probably can be without having to debate anyone. But results vary wildly by state: Just 22% of elections in New Hampshire have one candidate, while 90% in Alabama do. “Democracy is not working the way it should,” BallotReady CEO Alex Niemczewski told the New York Times. Perhaps not, but with the presidential election such an anxiety-inducing tossup, it’s a small respite to know that you may not have to sweat over who’s going to be your next city comptroller, too.—AE

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • Boeing factory workers, who have been on strike for seven weeks, will vote on a new contract offer from the plane manufacturer on Monday after rejecting the previous proposal.
  • Meta disclosed in a securities filing that it’s being investigated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over its advertising practices, the Washington Post reported.
  • Elon Musk lost his bid to move the lawsuit challenging his $1 million voting giveaways to federal court after a US judge ruled the case should remain in state court.
  • Polymarket plans to push into sports betting following the 2024 election, Front Office Sports reported.
  • Wegovy can help improve patients’ liver disease, Novo Nordisk said, adding yet another potential benefit of the popular drug beyond weight loss.

RECS

Saturday To-Do List graphic

Watch: Brew Markets investigates the controversy surrounding online prediction markets and the election.

Discuss: Men’s high-waisted pants are trendy again.

Be Batman: The Tumbler from The Dark Knight can be yours, if you have $3 million to spare.

Read: The story of a man who paddled 46 miles down the Columbia River in a giant pumpkin.

Intense full-body sensations: This ultra-slim, bendable, award-winning vibrator delivers pulsing pleasure from head to toe. Discover the benefits of P-spot stimulation with 30% off.*

Our big night: Lucky listeners joined the hosts of Morning Brew Daily at our offices for trivia night with Bonobos. Take a look behind the scenes to see the fresh fits.*

*A message from our sponsor.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Crossword: Don’t forget—you will be gifted an extra hour of sleep tomorrow night when Daylight saving time ends. Here’s a crossword to get you in the mindset.

Open House

Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section willing to live in an impenetrable labyrinth. We’ll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.

horse ranch in North Dakota on spiral patch of landZillow

Today’s home is a horse breeding farm in Dickinson, North Dakota, called Rosas Cantina Ranch. It’s located on a beautiful 60-acre lot with a river winding through it in such a way that might be a little annoying to get where you need to go (even on horseback). Amenities include:

  • 6 beds, 4 baths
  • Numerous corrals, round pens, and arenas
  • Cowhide curtains

How much for the sprawling ranch?

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ANSWER

$7 million

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: respite, meaning “a short period of rest or relief from something difficult or unpleasant.” Thanks to Todd from Albuquerque, NM, for the suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

✢ A Note From Pendulum

*based on preclinical studies

         
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