Monday Briefing: The final Times/Siena election polls

November 4, 2024

	By Gaya Gupta

Good morning. We’re covering the final set of Times/Siena election polls and young voters in Africa.

Plus, using generative A.I. to take a “decision holiday.”

On the left, a man wearing a dark suit. On the right, a woman speaking in front of a podium.

Doug Mills; Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Harris and Trump battle to the wire

There’s one more day until Election Day, and the final set of Times/Siena polls are in.

Kamala Harris is now narrowly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, the polls show, while Donald Trump leads in Arizona. They’re both locked in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. But the results in all seven states are within the margin of sampling error, meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead in any of them.

Usually, the final polls point toward a relatively clear favorite, even if that candidate doesn’t go on to win, wrote Nate Cohn, the Times chief political analyst. But this will not be one of those elections.

The overall poll result is largely unchanged since our previous wave of battleground polls, but the longstanding gap between the Northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds narrowed considerably, with Harris faring better than before among young, Black and Hispanic voters. Trump gained among his most reliable demographic, white voters without a degree.

The Times/Siena poll shows an enormous gender gap. Trump is winning men in battleground states by 16 percentage points, while Harris is winning women by the same margin. For the first time, abortion is the most important issue for women in deciding their vote.

Your questions: We asked Campbell Robertson, a national reporter, this question from a reader.

Why is Pennsylvania a swing state? What demographics are responsible for it being so? — Rebecca I., Sweden

Campbell: On Pennsylvania’s corners sit two large, Democratic-voting cities — Philadelphia and Pittsburgh — surrounded by bands of increasingly liberal suburbs. But about half of Pennsylvania residents live outside these two major metro areas, in smaller cities and rural areas across the state. Many of these places were once humming with steel mills and factories, and home to many union members, a reliable Democratic base.

But as industry declined over the decades, the electorate in these areas steadily moved toward the right. The share of college-educated adults is growing in Pennsylvania, as is the number of nonwhite voters. But currently a slight majority of the state’s voters are white people without college degrees, Trump’s most reliable demographic.

For more: Campbell talked to Pennsylvania voters about how they are feeling.

Your guide to Election Day

Hundreds of Times readers submitted questions about our reporting on the election. Our journalists around the newsroom provided answers.

Explore possible outcomes in the battleground states to see how Harris or Trump could reach 270 electoral votes and the White House.
Here’s when to expect results in each state tomorrow and beyond.
How exactly does the Electoral College work? The Times political correspondent Lisa Lerer breaks the confusing system down.

Stay up to date: Live coverage | Poll tracker | “The Run-Up” podcast | On Politics newsletter

Demonstrators burn Israeli flags on the anniversary of the U.S. embassy takeover by students in Tehran, Iran, yesterday. Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Iran’s supreme leader threatens Israel with ‘crushing response’

Iran’s supreme leader said on Saturday that Israel and the U.S. would “receive a crushing response” to the strikes against his country, as the Pentagon said it would deploy additional resources to the region.

Tehran initially appeared to play down the damage caused by Israeli strikes inside Iran late last month, raising hopes that it might de-escalate the situation. But in recent days, Iranian officials have changed their tone. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the authority as commander in chief to order strikes on Israel.

Lebanon: Israeli naval commandos, ferried by speedboats, captured a man Israel called a senior Hezbollah operative. It was the deepest known incursion yet by Israeli forces into Lebanese territory during this war.

Polio: Nearly 94,000 children in Gaza City received a second dose of the vaccine this weekend in an effort that was delayed by intense Israeli bombardment.

In depth: On Oct. 7, 2023, an Israeli college student opened her phone and made four Instagram posts. They landed her in prison.

Duma Boko grins as he casts his ballot surrounded by photographers with cameras.

Duma Boko, the newly elected president of Botswana. Monirul Bhuiyan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Young African voters sour on the parties that ushered in liberation

The party that has governed Botswana since it became independent in 1966, the Botswana Democratic Party, received a stunning rebuke in national elections, losing its majority in Parliament for the first time, according to results announced on Friday.

Old-guard liberation parties that had been relying on their credentials from fighting colonialism to stay in power are now being challenged by frustrated young voters. Many young Africans, who are becoming a larger share of the electorate, say they care more about whether those politicians are stealing public money, providing jobs and respecting basic freedoms like free speech.

MORE TOP NEWS

Men and women standing as they pray in a red-carpeted room.

Praying at a gurdwara, a Sikh place of worship, last year in Punjab, India. Atul Loke for The New York Times

India: The Sikh cause to carve out a land called Khalistan largely fizzled out decades ago. Yet the Indian government still frames the movement as a threat.
Germany: The country’s unpopular three-party coalition government is on the brink of collapse.
Spain: Thousands have flocked to help areas devastated by flooding, and anger toward public officials is growing.
Climate: Delegates at the U.N. climate talks created a voluntary system that would compensate countries for the use of genetic information to pay for conservation.
Britain: Kemi Badenoch, the daughter of Nigerian immigrants who became the first Black woman to lead the Conservative Party, is expected to lead it further to the right.
Poland: A radio station in Poland fired its on-air talent and brought in A.I.-generated presenters. An “interview” with a long-deceased poet ended the experiment.
Mexico: Behind a wall of trees and barely a 15-minute walk from a major highway, archaeologists discovered the ruins of a Maya city.

Sports

Sheila Chepkirui, right, and Abdi Nageeye. Uli Seit for The New York Times

N.Y.C. Marathon: Thirty-year-old Sheila Chepkirui of Kenya won her first major marathon, while Abdi Nageeye of the Netherlands won the men’s title.
Premier League: We went inside the deal to appoint Rúben Amorim as Manchester United’s head coach.
Formula 1: In far from the best car (or conditions), Max Verstappen put on a show at the 2024 São Paulo Grand Prix.

MORNING READ

Ms. Palacios looks at herself in the mirror while wearing a gold suit.

Sheynnis Palacios, the first Nicaraguan to win the Miss Universe pageant. Kirsten Luce for The New York Times

When Sheynnis Palacios was crowned as Miss Universe last year, it was the first time a contestant from Nicaragua had claimed the crown. But then the authoritarian Nicaraguan government started cracking down on those who supported her. She hasn’t returned home since.

CONVERSATION STARTERS

Rock’s most dogged activist: Robert Smith of the Cure discusses enduring on his own terms and clashing with the most powerful company in live music.
Keep it moving: A new rule at a New Zealand airport limiting curbside hugs to three minutes is drawing worldwide commentary.
Burning Man or Build-A-Bear? Le Rêve Nazam’s $650 jeans adorned with at least 200 teddy bears are the surprising internet fashion hit of the year.

We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times .

TECHNOLOGY

The New York Times

Want to take a ‘decision holiday’? Try generative A.I.

Generative A.I. is being widely adopted by industries like medicine and business consulting as a timesaving tool. But it can also draft grocery lists, choose a new haircut and offer advice about the in-laws. Kashmir Hill, who covers technology and privacy, conducted what she called an “admittedly ridiculous experiment” to see how generative A.I. might help the largest work force of them all: harried parents.

Kashmir used two dozen generative A.I. tools for daily tasks and nearly 100 decisions over the course of the week. “My automated advisers saved me time and alleviated the burden of constantly making choices,” she wrote, “but they seemed to have an agenda: Turn me into a Basic B.”

RECOMMENDATIONS

Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Cook: This creamy tortellini soup comes together in about 30 minutes.

Watch: Kamala Harris made a brief appearance on “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, alongside Maya Rudolph, her frequent impersonator.

Read: Our critic A.O. Scott walks you through “Party Politics,” a poem that speaks to his mood right now. But it’s not about those parties, or those politics.

Travel: Here’s how to spend 36 hours in Lyon, France’s third-largest city.

Gaze: Which Italian home would you buy in Sardinia for $1.6 million?

Compete: Take our latest news quiz.

Play: Spelling Bee, the Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here.

That’s it for today. See you tomorrow. — Gaya

Campbell Robertson contributed to this newsletter.

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