On Tuesday, Americans won’t just be choosing the next president—they’ll also be deciding which party controls the country’s powerful legislative chambers, the Senate and the House of Representatives, with huge consequences for economic policy next year and beyond.

The battle for Congress was underscored on Saturday, when GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson said that his party would “probably” roll back the CHIPS and Science Act, a bipartisan 2022 law that has set aside $53 billion to companies producing semiconductors. Johnson, who made the comment in a central NY district that is receiving a new $100 billion Micron chip plant because of the law, walked it back and said the “CHIPS Act is not on the agenda for repeal.”

But the remarks highlight the stakes for the next president’s economic policy agenda. Will Kamala Harris or Donald Trump face an oppositional Congress that limits their ability to implement their plans, or a friendly, cooperative one?

In recent decades, it’s been a friendly one. No incoming president has taken office without their party’s control of the House and Senate since George H.W. Bush in 1989. And that’s allowed them to enact hallmark legislation early into their terms—for instance, former President Trump’s tax cuts in 2017 and President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.

Trillions of dollars are on the line

Control of Congress would help determine the fate of trillions of dollars in tax cuts, since a chunk of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are expiring next year. Trump wants to make those cuts permanent, while Harris would raise taxes on wealthy Americans and corporations. It’s a gap of $2.3 trillion, the Wall Street Journal notes.

For Harris, having a cooperative Congress would be necessary to enact her major economic proposals, including subsidies for first-time homebuyers and a $6,000 child tax credit. Trump’s signature economic proposal—higher across-the-board tariffs—wouldn’t need Congressional approval.

Where we stand now: Democrats currently control the Senate, but they face an uphill climb to retain the chamber on Election Day. The House, now controlled by the GOP, is a toss-up that could be determined by tightly contested districts in California and New York, like the one where Micron is building its plant.—NF

Warren Buffett continues to stockpile cash, slashes his Apple stake: Life is like a hurricane / here in Omaha … Warren Buffett is doing his best Scrooge McDuck impression—his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway increased his cash pile to a record $325.2 billion in Q3 from $276.9 billion the previous quarter, although there are no reports of him throwing on a bathing suit and swimming in it. The Oracle of Omaha, who sold 389 million Apple shares in Q2, dumped about a quarter of his Apple stake in Q3, along with more Bank of America shares. Overall, Berkshire sold $36.1 billion of stock during Q3 and bought just $1.5 billion: It’s the eighth straight quarter during which Buffett was a net seller of stocks.

Harris gains ground in prediction markets after shock Iowa poll. Investors in prediction markets upped their wagers on Kamala Harris to win the presidency after a highly-regarded poll showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa, a potential outcome that no one—not even the campaigns—had thought probable, as Iowa had been trending more Republican. The surprise Iowa poll, conducted by polling guru Ann Selzer, is an outlier, but its possible ramifications for swing states led to a further narrowing of the race on popular prediction markets: Last week on the platform Kalshi, Trump boasted 64% odds of winning the White House. As of last night, Kalshi showed 52% Trump, 48% Harris.

Donald Trump says it’s “possible” he’d remove fluoride from drinking water: Trump would be doing so on the recommendation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has a history of promoting debunked health claims and who Trump said would have a “big role” in his White House should the former president win reelection this week. The addition of fluoride to the drinking water in the US in the 1950s was done to prevent tooth decay and is considered a monumental public health achievement. Trump has also said he wouldn’t rule out banning some vaccines if he wins, and said RFK Jr. would work on “women’s health” during his administration.

TGI Fridays has a case of the Mondays: The once-popular hotspot for hookups and loaded potato skins filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection over the weekend.

Executive chairman Rohit Manocha blamed it on the company’s inability to bounce back financially from the Covid-19 pandemic. All 39 US locations owned by the company will remain open during the restructuring process—the 56 restaurants owned by independent operators are not part of the filing.

Speaking of restaurants, TGI Fridays has a lot fewer of them now. It closed 36 locations in January and abruptly shuttered another 50 last week.

From singles bar to family-friendly

As chronicled by Delish, the original location on NYC’s Upper East Side that opened in 1965 became one of the first singles bars in the US, proving that Liz Lemon was correct—mozzarella sticks can be an aphrodisiac. The cool factor was so strong that TGI Fridays said its bartenders trained Tom Cruise for his role in 1988’s Cocktail. As drinking culture evolved and women became more welcome in bars that were beer-first, appetizers-second, TGI Fridays rebranded as a family restaurant, becoming more known for the pieces of flair that inspired the chain restaurant Chotchkie's in 1999’s Office Space.

Another casual dining casualty: Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy this year, as did the Tex-Mex chain Tijuana Flats and ice cream chain Oberweis Dairy. The industry is on track to declare more bankruptcies in 2024 than in any other year going back decades (besides 2020), per the WSJ.—DL

More than 48% of the total number of people who voted in the 2020 presidential election have already cast their ballots in the 2024 race, as of Sunday. It shows how the Covid-era shift to early and mail-in voting has become the “new normal,” and that Election Day simply marks the end of voting. Some states have seen massive early voting turnout. In swing states North Carolina and Georgia, about 80% of the state’s total electorate in 2020 have already voted.

Early voting rates were still higher in the pandemic-disrupted election four years ago, when around 100 million people voted early. Over 75 million have already done so this year.

Boeing’s striking workers will vote on another contract. After rejecting the previous three offers, 33,000 on-strike machinists will vote on the company’s latest attempt to end the seven-week walkout that has frozen Boeing’s jetliner manufacturing operations. The offer that union members are weighing includes a 38% pay raise, a $12,000 bonus for hourly workers, and bigger contributions to retirement plans over four years. However, this proposal does not restore pensions, which has been a sticking point for older employees. Boeing’s stock price has plummeted nearly 39% this year.

Candidates hit Western PA on Election Eve. Good thing the Steelers had a bye week yesterday, because Pittsburgh is being overrun by the presidential campaigns. Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes are considered a must-win for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, who will both hold rallies in the city today. In the latest New York Times/Siena poll, PA is a dead heat.

Another rate cut is on tap…but when will the next one come? Despite last week’s messy jobs report showing signs of a cooling labor market, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates by a traditional quarter point on Thursday following a meaty cut of 50 basis points in September. How the Fed plays the rest of the year remains less of a sure thing, and investors will be looking for clues about when and if Jerome Powell will consider cuts beyond this one. All of this will take place against the backdrop of an election that may or may not be decided by the time the Fed meeting wraps up.

Everything else…

• Earnings this week including AI winner Palantir today followed by the beleaguered Super Micro Computer tomorrow. CVS will unlock its glass case and hand over its earnings report on Wednesday.
• Saturday Night Live’s one-hour election special is tonight.
• Today is the start of college basketball season, which will feature 7-foot-9 Olivier Rioux, a freshman at Florida and the world’s tallest teenager.
• Almond joy: Starting on Thursday, non-dairy options at Starbucks will no longer cost extra.