One trading day to go. For today’s edition, we reached out to six of Wall Street’s top minds to find out what they’re monitoring as the Trump-Harris race concludes.

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The November finale

The Trump-Harris showdown is about to hit its crescendo, but Wall Street’s election jitters will linger long past Tuesday. 

Uncertainty remains elevated among top money managers, investors and strategists, mirroring the narrowing odds seen across prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Over the last two days, Harris has erased Trump’s double-digit lead across betting platforms and the race looks closer to a coin flip than ever.

For most of October, Trump’s lead in prediction markets coincided with strong stock and crypto prices, as well as rising bond yields.

The S&P 500, for one, is enjoying its best election-year in decades, though the rally cooled to end the month. At the same time, the word “election” came up on 100 earnings calls over the last two weeks, according to FactSet — the highest on record.

“Going into the election, market sentiment has suffered a ‘pullback’ from what could be described as extreme bullishness,” Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, told me.

The close race, Stockton added, has injected uncertainty to markets, which have seen elevated volatility lately. Forecasters expect that to continue in the week ahead, especially as some state officials have warned that votes could take several days to tally. 

“We think investors may initially welcome a decisive outcome to the election, regardless of who’s the winner,” she said. “But we would caution against chasing a rally given sentiment indicators have already flashed warning signals.”

“An unclear result — and the political fallout it could trigger — is the ultimate tail risk haunting Wall Street right now,” Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert, told me. “Markets can price in tariffs, tax changes, and deficits, but uncertainty over the election outcome is a wild card that will surely bring short-term volatility.”

Mixed economic expectations

Broadly, Harris favors higher spending fueled by higher taxes, whereas Trump favors lower taxes fueled by higher tariffs. 

In the scenario of a Trump victory, Gene Goldman, CIO at Cetera Investment Management, said tariffs and immigration limits could lead to lower US growth estimates for 2025 and higher inflation expectations.

“The latter likely reduces the number of Fed rate cuts in 2025,” Goldman said. 

Meanwhile, James Fishback, co-founder and chief investment officer at Azoria, told me that he believes the tax reforms of a Trump administration could boost American investment.

He said the former president would fuel innovation by dismantling some of the existing bureaucracy.    

“It’s about the economy, innovation, and productivity — the most important inputs in any asset price,” Fishback said. “A Harris win isn’t catastrophic, but it is a missed opportunity to tackle structural issues stifling US growth.”

To Siebert’s Malek, it’s clear both Trump and Harris would increase the ballooning federal deficit, which the bond market seems to be pricing in. 

“Higher deficits typically lead to higher long-term Treasury yields,” Malek said, “primarily because the increased supply of bond debt to finance the deficit pushes yields upward.”

What it means for stocks

Market-watchers generally consider political gridlock to be the most bullish scenario for equities.

That said, the oldest quip in markets is worth remembering here: When you zoom out, stocks usually go up. 

To that point, Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, pointed out that market crashes, bull-runs, and recessions have occurred under both political parties.

In fact, since 1900 every president except George HW Bush has presided over a bear market.

“Right now, in the midst of deafening political noise, the best thing you can do is focus on your [investment] goals, not on the headlines,” she said.

Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, told me he ultimately isn’t worried about the election’s impact on markets. 

“The larger positive market forces remain present, intact, and far more important [than the election],” Cox said. “A growing economy, a more favorable interest rate trajectory, and an innovation wave that’s like an industrial revolution with AI.” 

Comments or feedback? Reply directly to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

Elsewhere:

🍎Warren Buffett keeps selling Apple. For the fourth quarter in a row, Berkshire Hathaway downsized its stake in the iPhone maker, according to company filings Saturday. At the end of the third quarter, Berkshire’s cash pile reached $325.2 billion, an all-time high for the conglomerate. (CNBC)

📉 October jobs looked sparse. The US said it added 12,000 jobs in the month, well below expectations for 100,000, though some analysts cautioned that storms and strikes distorted the data. Keep in mind, the majority of the monthly labor market reports over the last two years has been revised lower, after the fact. (Yahoo Finance)

🏦 The Fed likely will cut 25 basis points. Policymakers look all but certain for a modest rate cut on Thursday, two days after the presidential election. The softening labor market and recent cool inflation data seems to point to a moderate pace of cuts. Markets are betting that the Fed lowers rates to the 3.5-3.75% range by September 2025. (Reuters)

Rapid-fire:

Last thing:

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