At this point, everyone’s political analysis is the same — it’s an incredibly close race and either candidate could win. Anyone who expresses confidence in a prediction about the outcome is dismissed. The odds that either candidate wins are a coin flip. So, these folks have a good chance at being right (I’m looking at you Alan Lichtman), but that doesn’t mean they have any special insight or secret sauce. It’s pure probability.

I won’t make any predictions. Based on the polling, the early vote, and other data points, I could argue that either candidate has a better chance of winning. Although, I think Harris has momentum and perhaps a slight edge in these final hours. Before it's all said and done, the votes are counted, and the winner named, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on Kamala Harris and her campaign.

Harris became a candidate for President only 106 days ago under incredibly different — and slightly awkward — circumstances. She is running in a brutal political environment against a former President in his third campaign. It’s truly stunning that this race is a toss-up, but we would not be here were it not for Harris and her campaign team. What they have pulled off is remarkable.

Get 20% off for 1 year

A Brutal Political Environment

Looking at the fundamentals, we shouldn't even be in this race. This is a brutal political environment. Three-quarters of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. Two-thirds are unhappy about the economy. The incumbent President ran for reelection despite huge misgivings about his age and then had a debate so disastrous that he had to drop out only a few months before the election.

Nate Cohn summed up the challenges in the New York Times:

For the first time in decades, Republicans have pulled even or ahead in nationwide party identification. Polls also find Republicans with an edge on most key issues — with democracy and abortion standing as significant exceptions.

The Democrats’ challenge appears to be part of a broader trend of political struggles for ruling parties across the developed world. Voters appear eager for change when they get the chance. The ruling parties in Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia and most recently Japan all faced electoral setbacks or lost power. Mr. Trump himself lost four years ago. France and Canada might well join the list.

Trump should be running away with it. If Joe Biden was still on the ballot, Trump would likely be headed for an electoral landslide. The race is this close because of Kamala Harris.

A Candidate Who Delivered in Big Moments

Kamala Harris woke up one morning and ate breakfast as Vice President, and by lunchtime, she was the de facto Democratic nominee. She was thrust into the presidential race. Even though she knew there was a chance Biden would step aside, she could do nothing to prepare for that possibility. She couldn’t have a strategy meeting. Her team couldn’t write a memo or make a list of people to call. She couldn’t seek advice from people in her life. If she had and it leaked before Biden made his decision, her campaign might have ended before it began.

Normally, the nominee spends time campaigning in the early states, doing countless town halls, debates, and interviews. They hone their message, develop their policy platform, and answer tough questions about their record beforehand. The primaries are a chance for them to introduce themselves to the electorate.

Because of Harris’s failed 2020 campaign and some early stumbles as Vice President, questions arose about her political skills.

With the utmost pressure and scrutiny, Harris stepped into the breach and delivered. While she hasn’t been perfect, Kamala Harris has been pretty damn close. At every big moment — the debate, the convention, and her Fox interview, she delivered. She made the impossible look easy.

Kamala Harris pulled off a difficult maneuver and it hasn’t been discussed enough. She made politics fun and exciting again. She brought people who had checked out since 2020 back into the process. Democratic enthusiasm in this election is as high as it was in 2008 when Barack Obama was first running.

Under the leadership of Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Harris campaign did the unimaginable. One day they were working to elect Joe Biden, the next day they had a new candidate with a new message and new strategy. They had to pivot on a dime while incorporating new staff and advisers to the Vice President. In a month, the campaign vetted and rolled out a VP, reorganized the Biden campaign, planned a convention, developed a policy platform, and prepared Harris for a high-stakes debate. And, oh yeah, they raised a billion dollars.

I spent the weekend knocking doors for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in Nevada and Arizona. I haven’t seen Democrats this fired up in a very long time.

That’s because of Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, and their campaign team.

Share

Get 20% off for 1 year