2PM - Gray Commerce / Bullish 2025

BRIEF (🔓): As we look ahead to 2025, it’s becoming clear that eCommerce isn’t just rebounding; it’s on the verge of another major growth phase. After a few volatile years of demand spikes and subsequent recalibrations, the indicators are pointing towards a new cycle of expansion driven by several converging factors: political shifts, technological advancements, consumer trends, and new market dynamics. Here’s why 2025 could be the year of a sustained eCommerce boom — and why now is the time to be bullish.

• Political and Economic Tailwinds Set The Stage
• The Tech Renaissance in eCommerce
• Social Commerce and Influencer Dynamics are Reshaping Retail
• Immersive Experiences Drive Engagement
• AI Powers Personalization and Operational Efficiency 
• Quick Commerce and The Rise of Dark Stores
• Sustainability and The Second-Hand Market Boom
• Mobile Commerce and Payment Innovation

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Reversing a Credit-Card Charge Has Never Been Easier—or More Abused

WSJ: With a few clicks and even fewer questions asked, Vasu disputed the charge to his Capital One credit card—a power move millions of shoppers are relying upon to win retail arguments. So swift and effective was the process that the 22-year-old financial analyst said disputing charges has become his go-to way to settle grievances large and small. A few weeks later, he filed his second dispute, this time over a $3 tip that was tacked onto a bar tab without his permission.

Klarna said to tap Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley for IPO

Bloomberg: Swedish payments firm Klarna Group Plc has filed for an initial public offering in the US, ending months of speculation that the company was readying a stock market listing.

Tapestry and Capri Call Off Their Merger

Business of Fashion: The $8.5 billion deal is off after the US Federal Trade Commission successfully blocked it in court. In announcing the termination, the Coach-owner said it would buy back stock, while Capri outlined a turnaround plan that includes closing some Michael Kors stores.

The State of Fashion 2025: Challenges at Every Turn

McKinsey (Key Report): Smart eCommerce players are focusing on new paths for product discovery. Shoppers who were once dazzled by the seemingly endless selection available at many online retailers now bemoan the difficulty of finding what they want. AI-powered curation, content, and search can help customers discover brands and products more effectively—and feel more inclined to make a purchase.

Sponsor Supported Data: The data reveals a striking optimism for cross-border eCommerce, especially in regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America. Unlike mature markets where growth expectations are tapering, these developing regions anticipate significant expansion.

This aligns with the broader trend noted in my latest essay — mid-sized and emerging enterprises are seizing untapped global opportunities. It’s not about blitzscaling; it’s about strategic international maneuvers, leveraging regional strengths and unique consumer demands. Agencies that can navigate the complexities of supply chain integration and local regulatory nuances are well-positioned to capitalize on this “gray commerce” opportunity, bridging domestic technologies with dynamic new markets.

Instacart Rolls Out More Smart Carts

Grocery Dive: The company is expanding the adoption of the technology through partnerships with Coles Supermarkets in Australia and a handful of grocers in the West and Midwest.

The Instacart OS: What we've written 

Rothy's Team on How the Brand Is Scaling Sustainably

WWD: Initially started as a digitally native footwear brand, Rothy’s has been growing at a rapid clip, adding stores, wholesale, a shop-in-shop in London, bags, as well as men’s and children’s products. All this works different parts of Quanbeck’s brain.

Amazon's New Storefront is Direct Challenge to Chinese eCom

Semafor: Amazon on Wednesday launched a new e-commerce storefront to compete with Temu, the Chinese platform known for its super-cheap goods. Haul, which was only available on Amazon’s app in a beta version, says it offers products at “crazy low” rates, including $2 phone cases, and a pillow set for $5.

Quartz: "Amazon beats Walmart and Target - Again..."

TikTok's New Trademark Filings Suggest it's Doubling Down

Semafor: One appears to be an app, TikTok Go, to promote “restaurants, retail businesses, the travel industry, and other online and offline businesses.” It promises to help create marketing and advertising materials, develop financial projections to evaluate marketing investments, and provide marketing advisory and technical consulting, among other functions.

DTC is dead. Long live DTC.

Retail Dive: Even brands like Lululemon, which sells mostly DTC, have wholesale accounts, Saunders noted. “The term DTC is still used as a shorthand. I’m just not quite sure it’s all that relevant now,” he said.

TikTok and its owner ramped up their hiring from China

Business Insider: TikTok and ByteDance's 50% year-over-year jump in approved H-1B applications for Chinese nationals came despite US Sen. Tom Cotton raising concerns about having "foreign individuals work at ByteDance and TikTok's offices in California."

November Update, presented by Bold Metrics. The latest update brings a dynamic look at the market. Brands like PrettyLittleThing (+44) and Burrow (+91) are notable risers, showcasing the impact of aggressive marketing, platform improvements, and consumer engagement strategies. This upward momentum contrasts sharply with MoM performance declines seen by brands like Mejuri (-53) and Liquid IV (-38), indicating possible struggles with customer retention, increased competition, or challenges in scaling operations.

The pronounced shifts reflect broader trends in consumer preferences. Health and wellness brands continue their ascent, buoyed by heightened demand for lifestyle products, while apparel and accessory brands show mixed performance, likely affected by changes in consumer spending habits and the economic climate.

Additionally, the data highlights a trend of consolidation in the industry. Many of the significant declines coincide with recent acquisitions, suggesting transitional challenges or strategic pivots post-acquisition that might not have resonated with their existing customer bases.

This month's fastest growers: 

800+ Brands Measured

All Hail the New Age of Retail

I-D.co: It looks like the days of e-comm behemoths are numbered. For independent brands like Priya Ahluwalia and Spencer Badu, it's time to double down on DTC.

Direct-To-Consumer Brands Explore Avenues to Enhance Buyer Experience

The discussions were held on key strategies by the industry leaders, retail innovators, and stakeholders from across the country regarding improving the experience of consumers at the new age shopping centres.

Global eCommerce isn’t just about splashy DTC brands or eye-catching platform launches anymore. It’s not about headline-grabbing unicorns or the meteoric rise of new apps — it’s about something quieter, subtler, and, in many ways, more impactful. It’s about the uncelebrated yet steady growth of mid-sized to enterprise-sized online retail businesses, many of which are powered by niche agencies with a keen understanding of a complex new market dynamic. In some circles, this niche is called “gray commerce” — the space between the black-and-white divisions of traditional, domestic retail and the truly, global digital economy that’s emerging.

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