Good morning investors. October inflation came in at 2.6%, hotter than the month prior just as economists predicted. That marks the latest wrinkle in the Fed’s soft-landing plans.

More on that later — first, let’s check on everyday Americans.

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How consumers are cracking, in 3 charts

Americans’ record mountain of debt got even bigger in the third quarter. 

Over the last three months, US households racked up more debt and continued to miss payments. Total consumer debt climbed $147 billion (0.8%) in the quarter to hit an all-time high of $17.94 trillion, Wednesday data from the New York Fed showed. 

Every type of loan product saw balances increase in the quarter including: 

Meanwhile, the share of loans in delinquency rose from 3.2% to 3.5% over the last quarter. 

While that remains below pre-pandemic levels of roughly 4.6%, new delinquencies are still piling up faster than households are paying off new loans.

Two key metrics that moved in a more promising direction was the number of new bankruptcies and foreclosures, which both ticked lower over the last three months.

In the quarter prior, both measures had hit their highest levels since the start of the pandemic in 2020. 

In any case, researchers pointed out that even though the total amount of debt has climbed since the pandemic, Americans’ disposable income has also increased to $21.80 trillion.

That brings the ratio of total debt balance to income to 82% — just below the pre-pandemic level of 86%. 

“Relative to income, balances are actually lower than they were before the pandemic,” New York Fed researchers said. 

“The recent downward movement in the ratio of debt to income has been followed by an apparent moderating of delinquency rates for auto loans and credit cards during the third quarter,” the researchers added. “If that trend continues, it would suggest that rising debt burdens remain manageable.”

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Interview:

I sat down with Anthony Pompliano, the co-founder of Opening Bell Daily, to discuss bitcoin’s record-shattering week, rumors of a secret nation-state buying crypto, and how financial assets continue to respond to the election.

Elsewhere:

📈Inflation ticked up again. October CPI rose in-line with expectations, which some economists argue gives the Fed a clear path to cut rates again in December. At the same time, inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target, which raises the question why the Fed would cut rates at all anytime soon. (Yahoo Finance)

💵 The US dollar is getting stronger. The currency hit a one-year high against its major peers, notching a fourth day in a row of gains. Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration controls under Trump 2.0 could fuel inflation and raise deficit spending. That speculation has led to additional support for the greenback. (Reuters)

Rapid-fire:

Fed rate cut odds according to Kalshi, the biggest US prediction market:

Last thing:

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