The Breakdown First Five - Monday, November 18, 2024

Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.

5. Manifest Destiny

Michael Saylor is all bulled up, planning a $100k party for New Year’s Eve. The Microstrategy chairman doesn’t see any warning signs for Bitcoin, rejecting the notion that it could go to $60k out of hand. Supporting the idea of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, he compared it purchasing the frontier of cyberspace and future global collateral. “I think it’s economically wise, it’s technically wise. Bitcoin is manifest destiny for the United States.”

4. Retail Is Back

The long awaited retail wave seems to have kicked off last week. The Coinbase app became the number one financial app and number 8 overall. Google searches for Bitcoin hit a cycle high. And on-chain data suggests that transactions below $100,000 are at a 3-year high, hitting levels only seen during moments of market froth. 

3. Bitcoin Options Clear Hurdle

Bitcoin ETF options appear to be on the way. The CFTC has provided staff guidance that they have no jurisdiction and no objection over the products. With SEC approval already in the bag, all that remains is for the Options Clearing Corporation to tick the box and allow trading to commence. No clear timeline, but days or weeks are now more likely than months. 

2. TresSec: It’s Complicated

The selection process for Treasury Secretary is now completely up in the air. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Apollo CEO Marc Rowan and Republican Senator Bill Hagerty are now all in the mix. Hedge funder Scott Bessent and transition team co-chair Howard Lutnick are still joint favorites. Some reports said the race has become a “knife fight” with Lutnick rubbing people the wrong way with his aggression. 

1. PTJ Quintuples Down

Paul Tudor Jones is all in. According to their latest 13F filing, PTJ’s hedge fund has increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings by 5x. They now own $160M of IBIT, enough to make them a top ten holder. The position is now the fund’s third largest, behind S&P 500 index funds and NVIDIA. These numbers are all as of the end of Q3, so it’s highly likely that Bitcoin is now the largest bet that PTJ holds. Losers average losers.