Who gains from Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire?

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There have been precious few glimmers of hope coming out of the Middle East of late. So it is hardly surprising that news of a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has been greeted with celebration in Lebanon and a degree of relief elsewhere − for now, the prospect of a wider, devastating regional war appears to be on the wane.

But just how significant is the deal that will see the militant Lebanese group retreat to the Litani River and members of the Israel Defense Forces fall back across the border − and why is it happening now? Asher Kaufman, an expert on border conflicts in the Middle East at the University of Notre Dame, explains that for all the parties concerned, a cessation of fighting is in their own interests, including for Israel, Iran and the incoming Trump administration.

But a temporary ceasefire does not amount to a permanent end of violence. Nor will it necessarily set in place conditions to address the long-festering border dispute between Lebanon and Syria.

“I don’t see any permanent peace deal on the horizon, given the fact that the fundamental political goals of Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have not changed and that the Israel-Palestine conflict continues to fester,” writes Kaufman.

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Matt Williams

Senior International Editor

Israel has been pummeling Lebanon, including Beirut, for months. AP Photo/Bilal Hussein

Why Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire now − and what it means for Israel, Lebanon, Biden and Trump

Asher Kaufman, University of Notre Dame

Under the terms of the deal, Israel will gradually withdraw from Lebanon, while Hezbollah isn’t allowed to rebuild near the border. But will the ceasefire hold?

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