At the end of 2023, we asked you to take some educated guesses about what would happen this year across business, politics, and more. Here’s what you got right and wrong:

The US continued to avoid a recession. Most of you (82%) got this right. Though the cost of groceries might still be hurting your wallet, US officials achieved the rare soft landing this year—aka bringing inflation under control without spiking unemployment—and finally started cutting interest rates. Consumer prices rose 2.7% over the past year, down from a 3.1% uptick from November 2022 to November 2023.

Donald Trump won the election. Less than 30% of you correctly predicted the election’s outcome—34.5% thought President Joe Biden would win, and 36.9% locked in “someone else.”

Elon Musk still owns most of X. The Tesla boss retains a 79% stake worth more than $5 billion, according to Investopedia.

Apple didn’t buy Disney. Nearly all of you got this right. Current and former Disney execs told CNBC in 2023 that they believed returning CEO Bob Iger ultimately wanted to sell to Apple, something he’s previously denied.

The S&P 500 is up almost 30% this year. Y’all underestimated the markets: Nearly two-thirds of you thought the S&P would climb no more than 10 points, leveling out after its 24% rise in 2023. Less than 1 in 5 of you accurately predicted higher gains.

Inside Out 2 won the box office. The biggest film of 2024 was this question’s least popular guess, getting only 7.4% of the vote. Since its summer release, Inside Out 2 has made more than $1.5 billion globally, beating out Deadpool & Wolverine, your second-most popular guess.

The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl (again). The Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers were the most popular guesses for the LVIII ring, but the Chiefs punched their ticket to the big game and came back in the second half to beat the 49ers in overtime.

Donald Trump is a convicted felon. In May, Trump became the first former commander-in-chief to be found guilty of felony crimes, which a narrow majority of you (56%) believed would be true by year’s end.

The war in Ukraine did not end. It has been more than 1,000 days since Russia invaded Ukraine. This year, Putin’s forces seized almost six times more Ukrainian territory than they did in 2023. President Biden gave Ukraine the go-ahead to fire long-range US missiles into Russia for the first time last month.

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are still together. This was about as close as the presidential election’s popular vote—50.9% of you thought they’d break up this year, but 49.1% had faith. Big phew for Hallmark and Lifetime, which both released Christmas movies based on the couple’s romance.—ML

Turns out, some people know what they’re talking about. Here’s who got 2024 right.

Europeans have us figured out. A French trader who only identified himself as “Théo” snagged a whopping $50 million payout on his Polymarket bets when Donald Trump won the presidential election in November. The trader told the WSJ that he used “neighbor polls,” which ask people to identify who they think their neighbors would vote for, rather than more traditional polls, in which people may not be truthful.

AI stuff definitely happened. There were so many “here’s what AI will do next year” pieces that some were bound to get it right. TechCrunch predicted last year that Apple would finally jump into the AI race, which it did by partnering with OpenAI and releasing its first Apple Intelligence update.

Rogan set free. Lucas Shaw of Bloomberg’s Screentime said Spotify would renew but revise its exclusive $100+ million deal with Joe Rogan. In February, the company said The Joe Rogan Experience would be available on all platforms, marking the end of Spotify’s exclusivity era.

Reality bites. Linda Holmes of NPR’s Pop Culture Happy Hour podcast predicted someone would win a big verdict or settlement in a reality show lawsuit—and both happened. The NLRB ruled earlier this month that the Netflix reality show Love Is Blind should recognize its cast members as employees. The show’s production companies also agreed to pay $1.4 million to settle a class-action suit regarding low wages.—MM

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, if you’re into surprises), we are not a world of soothsayers. While plenty of predictions for the year came to fruition, a handful didn’t.

Rate cuts were not plentiful. The year began with a widespread perception that the Federal Reserve would cut rates six times throughout the year. Banks said it, economists said it, and even we said it—but it didn’t happen. In the end, the Fed cut rates three times, once by a half percentage point in September (to much applause), then by a quarter percentage point in November, and finally by another quarter percentage to end the year at a range between 4.25% to 4.5%.

The doomsday port strike didn’t cause a banana shortage. Investors were shaking in their Bloomberg terminals on Oct. 1, preparing for upended supply chains due to what many thought would be a debilitating strike against the global shipping industry. Everyone was ready to go banana-less. But the strike ended two days later when port operators and dockworkers reached a temporary deal, and the banana supply was unaffected.

AI election takeover fears went unfulfilled. Experts warned of an all-out deluge of AI misinformation in the lead-up to the presidential election. According to experts, it never really materialized. That said, an increase in AI-generated content has made it increasingly difficult to tell what information is true.

TikTok Shop didn’t flop. The app’s foray into retail was predicted to fail based on slowing user growth and general hate for its peddling of cheap wares. But, instead, TikTok Shop boomed: It generated $100 million in sales on Black Friday.—CC

You guys did pretty good last year, but let’s see if you can do better for 2025.

We put together another super quick, 10-question poll asking you to predict the major news events of 2025. Questions include:

• Will TikTok get banned?
• How high will Bitcoin go?
• Will Taylor and Travis get engaged?

Cast your votes here. We’ll reconvene around this time next year to see how you did. Good luck!—AE

How will the markets respond to the first year of a second Donald Trump presidency? What will happen in AI and Big Tech? Will you ever be able to afford a house, like, ever?

Here’s what the experts are saying about what to expect in 2025:

Stock market: After the tech sector fueled markets to record numbers in 2024, everyone sees the S&P 500 continuing to rise in 2025. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs believe the S&P 500 will reach 6,500, while Eric Schiffer of the Los Angeles-based investment firm The Patriarch Organization told Quartz that it will climb to 6,750. Jeff Krumpelman of Mariner Wealth Advisors has a rosier outlook, predicting the index will hit 7,000.

AI: Unsurprisingly, everyone expects the uprising of our automated allies (or enemies) to continue as the technology improves. Fast Company foresees more organizations implementing AI in the workplace. Forbes predicts that AI-based scams will increase. But some are sounding the alarm that AI’s just one big bubble bound to collapse.

Jobs: Fast Company also predicts that low unemployment levels will hold steady. Hiring will pick up in certain sectors—healthcare, technology, defense, and energy—but will slump in retail, government, and professional services.

Renting vs. owning: Redfin believes prices in the US rental market will remain flat in the coming year, with more units becoming available. As for homebuyers, that market appears to be more volatile. Redfin foresees a 4% increase in home prices during 2025, which would represent a slowdown compared to previous years. But with Trump promising to increase tariffs on foreign goods, the cost of owning a home could get much higher, per LendingTree.—DL