Battleground by Justin Brown - Yes, Gaza Mattered in Michigan

Takeaways

• Donald Trump won Michigan's electoral votes by a slim 1.4-point margin while Democrat Elissa Slotkin won the state's Senate race, defeating her Republican challenger by an even slimmer 0.3% margin.
• Harris's loss is primarily due to her failure to retain Democratic base voters, specifically Arab American voters who are unhappy with the Biden administration's approach to Israeli aggression in Gaza.
• Trump ran well ahead of Republican US Senate candidate Mike Rogers, proving theories that some Trump voters showed up to vote only for Trump but not other Republican candidates.

Biden Embraces Israel, Harris Loses Votes

While Kamala Harris received more votes than Joe Biden did in the majority of Michigan counties, her losses in the state's most populous counties resulted in an overall net loss in total votes. She ultimately lost ~67,000 votes across the state when comparing to Biden's 2020 final vote total. Much of this loss of support was due to the "Abandon Biden" (and later "Abandon Harris") movement

"I think the biggest problem is that your messaging to Arab Americans can’t just be ‘Trump’s a fascist, Trump is Hitler. Big, scary orange man, vote for me.’ Part of being a part of the American political system is being able to separate yourself from your opponent and lay out a better vision. And she did not do that"

-Abdelhalim Abdelrahman, Palestinian-American policy analyst and writer

While some Democrats embraced the Uncommitted movement and hoped to shift their party's approach to Israeli aggression in Gaza, others advocated for voters to abandon the party altogether. As election season progressed and Democrats continued to snub the Uncommitted movement, the "Abandon" movement quietly grew in response. When leaders of the Uncommitted movement signaled their intent to cast votes to stop Trump, this tacit support of Harris did not resonate with voters who were upset with Democratic leaders.

"What ended up taking place, afterwards... was a massive distrust of [that leadership]. No one was really listening to them any more... The community had washed their hands of [the uncommitted movement]."
-Hudhayfah Ahmad, Muslim-American activist

When assessing Michigan's presidential election results, it is clear that many Arab American voters and their allies ultimately embraced the "Abandon" movement. Harris's biggest losses were in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties and were particularly acute in towns with large Arab American communities.

Dearborn holds the nation's largest concentration of Arab American voters and Harris ultimately only received 36% of the town's vote, a radical departure from the previous presidential election where Biden won 68% of the Dearborn vote. To be clear, these voters did not shift toward Republicans en masse: Harris lost over 60,000 voters in Wayne county (home to Dearborn) but Trump only gained about 24,000 votes. Instead of switching parties, many of these voters simply left their presidential ballot blank due to their distrust of Biden's foreign policy.

"There wasn’t a full belief that Trump was better than Harris – it was that the situation was not acceptable and there needs to be change, and we will take whatever comes from that and do what we need to."
-Mohamed Gula, director of Emgage, a Muslim political advocacy group

While Democrats saw substantial losses in the state's most populous counties, Republicans saw gains in almost all counties in the southern half of the state.

"We tried negotiations. We tried to reach out, to no avail. You know, they never reached out. We went through multiple avenues to try to be heard, and instead we were ridiculed.” -Bryarr Misner, campaign manager for the "Abandon" movement

Trump Runs Ahead of Senate Candidate Rogers

While Democrats' failures with Arab Americans provided an opening for Trump to win the state, those failures did not lift Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers to a similar win. Instead, Michigan stands as one of four battleground states this cycle to support Donald Trump for president while also sending a Democrat to the US Senate. Several counties saw a substantial gap in total votes for Trump compared to total votes for Rogers, proving theories that some Trump voters showed up to vote ONLY for Trump but not other Republican candidates. He ultimately outran former US House Rep. Rogers by over 120,000 votes.

Leftover Links

‘They blew it’: Democrats lost 22,000 votes in Michigan’s heavily Arab American cities

Trump’s courting of Arab American voters and the Biden-Harris Gaza policy turned votes away from the Democrat…

The Guardian •Tom Perkins

Billionaires, dark money dominate record-setting Michigan election spending | Bridge Michigan

Money from undisclosed sources and the ultrawealthy made up the largest chunks of Michigan political spending in 2024 e…

Bridge Michigan •Simon D. Schuster