Battleground by Justin Brown - Florida: A Swing State No Longer

Takeaways

• Donald Trump won the state of Florida for a third consecutive time, this time winning by a margin of 13.1 points.
• Harris saw roughly 600,000 less votes from the state when comparing her 2024 statewide vote total to Joe Biden's vote total in 2020.
• Florida's deepening red hue is not solely due to Republican success but also due to Democrats' failure to turnout their base. Several counties flipped to Republicans in this election because Democrats lost significantly more votes than Republicans gained.

Florida Continues to Swing Right

Donald Trump won the state of Florida for a third consecutive time, this time by a historic 13.1 points. He increased his overall vote totals in every single county except two (Escambia and Pinellas), when comparing 2024 to his previous performance in the 2020 presidential election. North Florida continues to be a reliable base of Trump's support with many counties giving 80% or more of their total vote to the former president. Meanwhile, Trump continues to make historic inroads in South Florida, specifically in the state's most populous metropolitan area: Miami. In the 2016 election, Miami-Dade county ultimately voted for Hillary Clinton by a vote of 63-33 in her favor. After shifting more than 10 points in Trump's direction in the 2020 election (voting 53-45 in favor of Biden), Miami-Dade has officially turned red as the county saw yet another 10-point swing in Trump's favor in 2024. This marks the first time since 1988 that the state's most populous county voted for a Republican presidential candidate.

This trend is not localized to Miami-Dade but was also seen in seven other counties in the South Florida region. Palm Beach county has seen a similarly dramatic shift over the last three elections: Clinton won the county by 15 points in 2016 yet Harris won the county by less than a point in 2024. Much of the shift in this region is due to Trump's increased popularity amongst Latine voters. Florida's Hispanic population is concentrated mostly in South Florida and Trump successfully won the state's Latine vote for the first time in this election. While Trump certainly increased his support in several counties across South Florida, much of the state's newfound red hue is due specifically to Democrats' failure to turnout their base voters.

Republican Gains Propelled Primarily by Democratic Losses

Democrats' base of support in Florida has continued to shrink over time and has reached historic lows following the 2024 presidential election. While Harris' support is mostly confined to the state's urban areas, mirroring Joe Biden's map, Harris saw roughly 600,000 less votes from these areas when comparing 2024 vote totals to 2020 totals. Most notably, the significant drops in votes has led to the loss of not just Miami but also the cities of Jacksonville and Tampa. To be very clear: Republicans won these areas not because of their ability to persuade voters, Democrats explicitly lost more votes in these cities than Republicans gained.

"Quite frankly we must admit that [Democrats] did not build the infrastructure or the message to counter this. It’s indicative of what happened yesterday, just a major wipeout for the Florida Democrats. The Biden-Harris Administration spent four years telling people things are going to get better, things are going to get better, and they clearly had a disconnect there with what folks were seeing.”
-Thomas Kennedy, Florida Immigrant Coalition

Let's review the vote totals of the three aforementioned cities: Jacksonville, Miami and Tampa. Jacksonville's Duval county saw an overall drop in turnout when comparing 2024 to 2020. Trump only gained 2,523 votes in 2024 over 2020 but Harris saw 23,000 less votes when compared to Biden's 2020 vote totals in Duval. In Tampa's Hillsborough County the numbers are even more stark: Trump gained 14,000 votes while Harris lost over 54,000 votes when compared to Biden's 2020 vote totals. Miami-Dade, due to its size, presents the most eye-watering numbers: Harris lost 137,000 votes, about 1% of the state's overall total vote, while Trump only gained half of that amount at about 72,000 votes.

Exit polling provides further evidence of Democrats' struggles to turn out their base in Florida as the percentage of votes from registered Democratic voters fell by 5-points from 30% of total voters in 2020 to only 25% in 2024.

Simply put: Kamala Harris' focus on persuading centrist and moderate conservative voters resulted in historically low turnout amongst Florida's Democratic base. While a Trump win in Florida was likely inevitable due to the state's unique migration patterns over the last decade, this approach delivered Democrats their worst presidential-level performance Florida in over 35 years and ceded ground in cities that were previously considered Democratic strongholds.

Leftover Links

Trump received 56% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, new exit poll finds • Florida Phoenix

A national exit poll survey of Hispanic voters in 10 states showed that only in Florida did Donald Trump win a majority…

Florida Phoenix •Mitch Perry

Florida: Patriotism vs. Socialism

Fears of socialism drive Florida voters toward Republicans.

Battleground •Justin Brown