New economic data released yesterday painted a picture that nobody wants to see: Last month, inflation climbed higher than forecast, slimming the odds that the Fed will continue lowering interest rates soon.

Top line: Pricier fuel oil, food, used cars, and auto insurance drove overall consumer prices to increase 0.5% from December to January, according to the Department of Labor. That’s the quickest monthly rise since August 2023, and it exceeded expectations of 0.3%. Full-year inflation came in at 3%, up from a rate of 2.9% in December that economists thought would hold steady.

• Egg prices spiked by 15.2%—a ~10-year record—to account for ~two-thirds of monthly grocery inflation. The price of eggs is up 53% over the past year.
• When excluding volatile food and energy costs, core consumer prices still logged their highest monthly jump in almost two years and reached 3.3% year over year inflation, surpassing 68 out of 73 forecasts that Bloomberg surveyed.

“We are close, but not there on inflation,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a congressional hearing yesterday after the data was released, signaling that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates. Traders now believe there’s a 30% chance there won’t be any rate cuts this year, up from 20% earlier this week, according to CME Group. Economists widely agree that interest rates could hold steady between 4.25% and 4.5% through the summer if inflation doesn’t ease.

Looking ahead…the Fed is in major wait-and-see mode, especially because economists—and even Sen. Mitch McConnell—warn that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could spike consumer prices. Trump’s first-term tariffs trickled down to consumers’ wallets in about two months, so the 10% import tax on all Chinese goods that went into effect on Sunday could raise some prices at your local stores by April, according to the Wall Street Journal.—ML

Trump says talks to end Ukraine war will start “immediately” following call with Putin. After what President Trump described as a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Trump said they’d agreed to begin negotiations to end the war that began when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This represents a shift in US policy, as Joe Biden did not engage directly with Putin. Trump subsequently called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “to inform him of the conversation.” Zelensky called their talk “meaningful” on X, saying, “No one wants peace more than Ukraine.”

Teacher Marc Fogel back in US after prisoner swap with Russia. The call between Trump and Putin came after Fogel, an American arrested for flying into Moscow with medically prescribed marijuana in 2021, returned to US soil as part of a prisoner exchange. To secure Fogel’s freedom, the Trump administration agreed to release Alexander Vinnik, a Russian citizen and the co-founder of Bitcoin exchange BTC-e, which US authorities say was used by criminals for ransomware schemes, identity theft, and drug trafficking. Vinnik, who pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering, will leave $100 million worth of digital assets in the US as part of the deal, per NBC.

Chevron to lay off up to 20% of staff. The oil company says it plans to fire 15% to 20% of its global workforce, or about 9,000 people, by the end of next year as it looks to cut $2 billion to $3 billion in costs. It’s not the only large energy company slashing its headcount as oil prices dip: Britain’s BP recently announced plans to cut 5%. Meanwhile, the status of Chevron’s deal to buy Hess for $53 billion, which would give it access to Guyana’s oil field, is uncertain amid a legal challenge from competitor ExxonMobil.—AR

Huge news for anyone thinking about peppering a little corruption into their business dealings abroad: This week, President Trump halted the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

What’s that? A nearly 50-year-old law that prohibits companies operating in the US from bribing foreign officials to win business deals. It’s been lauded by both sides of the political aisle for preventing bribery in other countries where the practice is common, but it’s also been criticized for shutting US businesses out of deals.

President Trump said the law hurts US companies because they can’t compete with foreign rivals who can use bribery tactics, creating an “uneven playing field.”

On the flip side, experts worry that companies could use it as a gateway to engage in more corrupt activity and that it could cause other countries to weaken their prohibitions on bribery as well.

Looking ahead…while enforcement will be paused, US companies that bribe foreign officials will still be breaking the law and could face potential legal repercussions down the road. For now, the order calls for Attorney General Pam Bondi to review ongoing investigations and create new enforcement guidelines.—CC

Amid the horde of upstart beverage brands desperately vying to occupy the third coaster on your desk, Olipop has squirmed into many consumers’ rotations. The prebiotic soda brand announced yesterday that it was valued at $1.85 billion in its recent $50 million funding round.

Olipop, which started seven years ago, has dominated the nonalcoholic US drink market with its claim that it supports gut health. Some experts are skeptical of the health claims from Olipop and its rivals. The company cites its ability to capture the tastebuds of the youth for much of its success, saying 1 in 4 Gen Zers drink its bubbly beverage:

• Olipop says half of its growth comes from legacy soda drinkers, and the other half is thanks to people new to the soft drink category.
• In 2023, Olipop founder and CEO Ben Goodwin told CNBC that he had received offers from PepsiCo and Coca-Cola to buy the company.

Now it’s on a roll. News of the unicorn valuation comes just days after Olipop’s main rival, Poppi, caught massive blowback on TikTok for its $16 million Super Bowl ad and marketing stunt, which entailed sending fully stocked Poppi vending machines to influencers. Critics called it wasteful and out of touch.

Olipop, which made a celebrated foray into sports marketing last year, hopped in the comments section of the Poppi drama, suggesting that the vending machines cost $25,000 each.—MM

If you used Zelle in the past year to get your buddy back for your share of dinner and then again to pay the babysitter when you got home, you’re in good company. The big bank-owned platform said its payments volume exceeded $1 trillion last year, a sum its general manager told CNBC was “by far” the largest one ever moved by a peer-to-peer platform in a single year. To help get it there, the platform’s user base grew by 12%, to 151 million accounts, in 2024.

Seven banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, launched Zelle in 2017 to take on popular money-sharing apps like PayPal, Venmo, and CashApp. And it looks like it’s working: PayPal reported a volume of $400+ billion last year, per CNBC. But being top dog also comes with scrutiny: The government has accused Zelle’s operator, Early Warning Service, of not doing enough to curb fraud on the platform.—AR