A War of Attrition

People may not always pick winners based on skill, but eventually, reality does.

In the short term, privilege can outmatch performance. For instance, being born rich has been shown to be a stronger predictor of success than being smart. But advantages like these have also been shown to fade over time. One study found that mutual fund managers from wealthy families underperformed their peers from poorer families by 1.36% per year. Why? Because while connections and credentials can open doors, they can’t guarantee results.

The lesson: merit compounds. The system may favor status upfront, but in the long run, execution beats entitlement. This is the uncomfortable truth about meritocracy: it works — but not evenly, not immediately, and definitely not for those who quit too soon. The longer the horizon, the more merit wins. The cool part? That horizon is getting closer.

Most People Tap Out Before Merit Matters

The most common misunderstanding of merit is that it’s a sheer game of talent. It’s not. It’s a game of execution. Merit doesn’t stop at having the right answer, it starts when you act on it. Those who succeed through merit:

• Execute well before conditions are perfect. (Most people hesitate.)
  
  
• Iterate in public and manage the hits. (Most people avoid looking dumb.)
  
  
• Get back up after they’re wrong and course-correct. (Most people quit after one setback.)

Most people think their competition is other people with better ideas when their real competition is other people who act on ideas better than they do. The idea that "the best ideas always win" just isn’t true. Many people have good ideas. But only a few are willing to endure what it takes to follow through with them.

That’s why meritocracy — though imperfect — wins in the long run. Intent is only so useful. It’s execution that leaves a mark.

The Cheetah Vs. The House Cat

Both are cats, but they’re not equals.

A house cat is comfortable, predictable, needy, and safe. It waits to be fed. It stays in its lane. It does just enough. A cheetah? It hunts. It adapts. It moves fast. Ideas work the same way. Some sit, waiting for permission. Others fight for their place in the world.

Your business will be built on one of these two types of people. Hire house cats, and you’ll spend your life managing them. Hire cheetahs, and you’ll build something that can scale beyond you. At Contrarian Thinking, we bet on execution and use merit as a filter.

What’s that look like? If a candidate we’re considering hiring doesn’t meet these standards, we usually pass.

• The best people are usually already employed. If someone is really good, they’re probably already working somewhere else.
  
  
• The best people have a history of winning. Past performance isn’t a guarantee, but it’s the best signal we have. A player who’s won before knows how to win again.
  
  
• The best people come with proof, not promises. They don’t need a long runway. They’ve already done some of what we need them to do or are learning to.
  
  
• The best people have a rolodex. The best people often have a list of humans they can ask for referrals. Look at their network. Would past teammates follow them? Do ex-managers respect them?

Culture is a Consequence

Every hire shifts the gravity of your business. Taking this to heart will literally impact your bottom line. Roland Fryer, a professor of economics at Harvard put it bluntly in the Wall Street Journal:

Culture often isn’t what you write down — it’s who you let in the door. Every hire moves your business forward or holds it back. Every person makes the business stronger or weaker, faster or slower, sharper or duller, more effective or less.

A single house cat hire won’t kill you, but ten will. Hire a cheetah, and things tilt the right direction. Problems get solved before they hit your inbox. Debates are about ideas, not egos. People move, adjust, and hunt without waiting for permission.

The Meritocracy Bet

The cultural pendulum always swings. If you want to stay ahead, watch where it’s going next. The next decade belongs to meritocracy, competence, and strength. We will see the rise of trends like:

• Competence over credentials. (The market cares what you can do, not where you went to school.)
  
  
• Strength over victimhood. (The winners will be those who push forward despite obstacles, not those who use obstacles as identity.)
  
  
• Meritocracy over "equity." (When given the choice, people want the best people running the show, period.)

TikTok’s algorithm was built on this exact idea. It rewarded performance. A kid with no followers could outrank a celebrity if their content was better. The best ideas — the best execution — won.

That’s the playbook for the next decade. The companies, institutions, and individuals who bet against merit will lose. Those who prioritize competence, who put proof over potential, and place execution over excuses, will win.

By definition, merit has to be earned. The next decade belongs to those willing to earn it.

Your Business Can Scale Massively. Here’s How…

At our upcoming scaling workshop, Codie & team will be in person for 2 days working with 100 business owners to refine their growth strategies, identify their bottlenecks, and remove operational friction. Join us May 1-2, and you’ll:

✅ Pinpoint what’s holding your business back

✅ Create systems that reduce owner dependencies

✅ Get hands-on input from operators who’ve built, scaled, and exited

✅ Leave with a focused 90-day plan to execute immediately

There are LOTS more details on the event site, but know this: growth is about execution. If scaling is the goal, getting in this room is the move. Less than 100 spots left, and they’re being filled.

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