Hi Newsletterest, here's what you need to know for July 2nd in 3:04 minutes.

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Today's big stories

The US stock market just had its best quarter in over 20 years
Our analysts explain why the deeper the recession, the better the news could be for stock prices – Read Now
Aircraft manufacturer Airbus announced 15,000 job cuts

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Photo Finish

What’s Going On Here?

US stocks did more than just snatch victory from the jaws of defeat last quarter: they ended up bringing home their best quarterly performance since the end of 1998.

What Does This Mean?

Ever since March’s “bear market” selloff, investors seem to have been encouraged by the promise that major central banks and governments would do whatever they could to prop up the economy and, by extension, markets. And more recently, the reopening of businesses seems to have buoyed investors even more – despite the ongoing pandemic.

This much was clear from the 20% rise in the key US stock market index, the S&P 500, last quarter. That’s its biggest quarterly increase in more than 20 years, and brings its annual performance to “just” a 4% decline (tweet this). Still, it’s no Nasdaq Composite: the tech-focused index has risen 12% this year – including a 31% jump last quarter.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Riddle America.
This month kicks off with a host of second-quarter company updates. Analysts are expecting profits to be 44% lower on average than the same time last year – partly due to a 151% drop for energy companies. But it’s not all bad: they think utilities – which, like energy companies, comprise 3% of the market – won’t see their profits drop at all. Of course, with almost 200 companies having abandoned forecasts altogether, it’s still a bit of a puzzle: things could be much worse than expected, or – if Wednesday’s stock market rise means anything – even a bit better.

The bigger picture: A campaign in the neck.
Coronavirus has made it tricky to estimate companies’ fortunes this year, sure, but analysts reckon the upcoming US presidential election has made forecasting almost pointless anyway. They’re concerned new policies could rattle healthcare or financial services companies. So while Bank of America thinks US stocks could fall another 7% this year, others have ditched their forecasts altogether.

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Bigger Is Better

What’s Going On Here?

Bigger stocks delivered better returns in the first half of 2020 – and analysis of past patterns suggests a bigger recession could be better news too…

Get the full story with Finimize Premium

Trash Talk

What’s Going On Here?

French-headquartered aircraft manufacturer Airbus announced on Wednesday it was scrapping 15,000 jobs as it tries to pick up the post-coronavirus pieces.

What Does This Mean?

Airbus is cutting 11% of its staff as part of a broader restructuring – the biggest in its history. And since the aircraft maker doesn’t expect air traffic to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, it reckons it’ll be forced to make further cuts as soon as next year if forecasts get any bleaker.

Airbus’s motivations are pretty clear-cut: airlines don’t need as many planes as they thought they would at the beginning of the year, which means less revenue for manufacturers. But as a way of balancing out its costs and avoiding political conflict, Airbus has at least spread the job cuts across the globe – from its French home to its German industrial base, as well as in other hubs like Spain and the UK.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: No-fly zone.
America’s Boeing hasn’t had it much easier: Airbus’s arch-nemesis announced 16,000 job cuts back in April, and it's since lost orders on over 100 planes after Norwegian Air and Singapore’s BOC Aviation canceled their purchases last month. The US giant would’ve needed to get its planes off the ground first, mind you: news broke on Wednesday that Boeing hid data linked to the crashes of its 737 MAX 8 jets from the authorities, which could impede the test flights that’ll help get the plane recertified.

Zooming out: Slasher movie.
A challenge for sprawling global businesses like Airbus and Boeing is deciding exactly which jobs to cut, especially now several countries have government support in place precisely to encourage companies not to fire staff. That support’s arguably most generous in the UK, but that hasn’t stopped some of the country’s biggest retail and aviation firms slashing 11,000 jobs in just two days.

Be prepared: How to keep your finances afloat if you’re laid off.

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💬 Quote of the day

“In three words I can sum up everything I’ve learned about life: it goes on.”

– Robert Frost (an American poet)

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👶 So you’re in your 20s…

You’re looking to start investing, avoid common mistakes, and find the right platform to grow your idle cash. Well, our next UK event – Investing in Your 20s – is literally made for you. And if you’re not in your 20s, here’s the good news: you could probably just turn your baseball cap backwards. We won’t know the difference.

🇬🇧 UK: Investing in your 20s – 1pm UK Time, July 3rd
🇳🇬 Nigeria: COVID-19 & The Nigerian Economy – 5pm West Africa Time, July 11th
🇩🇪 Germany: Is Cash Still King in Germany? – 3pm Berlin Time, July 15
🇺🇸 USA: IP Risk During A Pandemic – 11am New York Time, July 15
🇦🇺 Australia: Women & Money (in-person) – 5.30pm Perth Time, July 22

😥 That was a long six months…

Last month alone saw bankruptcies from retailer J Crew and car rental mainstay Hertz, whose shares were speculatively bought up by a slew of day-traders – even though no professional investor would touch them. At the same time, investors have been grappling with what the next six months could hold – a question our own analysts have been asking themselves.

Check in with Andrew and Carl for an insight into how bad things really are right now, whether there’s any positive news, and what you might want to do with your money. It’s all in the June Monthly Review.

Listen to the June Monthly Review

📚 What we're reading

Someone just sent $1 billion in bitcoin… (Vice)
Could you run without music? (Mel)
Even the smallest things can inspire big ideas (Lit Hub)

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Finimize - 😜 US stocks become US stonks

Today's big stories

Photo Finish

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

Bigger Is Better

Trash Talk

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

👶 So you’re in your 20s…

😥 That was a long six months…

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