Finimize - 📱 Microsoft wants to buy TikTok

It's going to a better place | Don't buy the PMIs |
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Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for August 4th in 3:15 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a macchiato at Abaco Libros y Café in Cartagena, Colombia (32°C/89°F ⛅)

Today's big stories

  1. Microsoft’s thinking about buying TikTok’s US business
  2. ... and our analysts worked out how much it might actually have to pay – Read Now
  3. Manufacturing data around the world is steadily improving
1/3

The Emancipation Of TikTok

The Emancipation Of TikTok

What’s Going On Here?

TikTok, the world’s fastest-growing social media app, has until September 15th to get rid of its US segment – and on Sunday, Microsoft told the company, “we belong together”.

What Does This Mean?

The US government has been making life difficult for TikTok since June, and has even threatened to ban the app citing national security concerns. And while Chinese parent company ByteDance would prefer not to lose the platform at all, it’d rather it gets to live on – even if that means a new majority owner.

Enter Microsoft: all it wants for August is to buy TikTok’s US, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand segments from ByteDance, though they’re yet to agree on a price. And the tech giant’s likely hoping it can get a deal approved quickly: it wasn’t involved in last week’s tech hearings, has said it’s willing to work with the US government on this, and has promised to bring back American users’ data – which is currently being exported to China.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Heartbreaker.
Microsoft has been benefiting from corporate customers that spend big on its cloud products recently, but its purchase of TikTok could represent a shift towards consumer-facing products. The move could also spell more competition for Facebook and Snapchat, though the latter’s probably hoping the new music feature it’s just integrated into its app will keep it safe and sound. Plus, TikTok’s still not the advertising powerhouse that those rivals are – but optimistic investors who sent the stock up 5% on Monday will be watching closely to see if Microsoft can change that.

Zooming out: Make it happen.
Big companies were striking deals left and right on Monday: Siemens Healthineers agreed to buy rival medical tech company Varian for $16 billion, 7-Eleven’s owner agreed to the $21 billion purchase of Marathon’s Speedway gas stations, and Google announced a $450 million investment in security firm ADT, whose stock jumped about 60% (tweet this).

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2/3 Premium

The Price Of Emancipation

What’s Going On Here?

So Microsoft wants to buy TikTok: our analysts crunched some numbers to work out how much it might pay to prise its prize from ByteDance’s grasp.

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3/3

The Neverending Story

The Neverending Story

What’s Going On Here?

Fresh survey data out on Monday showed that the manufacturing industries in the US, UK, and eurozone were on the up, but that wasn’t exactly the whole story…

What Does This Mean?

These monthly surveys ask purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry how busy they’ve been, and they give investors a feel for economic activity as a whole. Last month, US and eurozone managers were busier than economists had predicted, and while the UK’s weren’t quite as busy as forecast, all three readings pointed to growing economies – a nice change of pace from the dramatic shrinkage we saw last quarter.

Still, consumer spending is the biggest contributor to the US, UK, and eurozone economies, and that predominantly affects the “services industry”, whose data isn’t released until later this week. Investors, then, will probably want to take manufacturers’ early updates with a pinch of salt…

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: The government’s coming. Look busy.
Survey data – or “soft data” – can help economists make forecasts about “hard” data, like economic growth figures. But seeing as it may be in respondents’ interests to sound busy, some investors have started to doubt how meaningful the surveys are. And going by hard data alone, debt rating agency Fitch reckons the US’s finances are in so much disarray that it might soon declare the purchase of American debt a riskier proposition.

For markets: Deals, deals, deals.
While US lawmakers are still trying to decide what the next phase of economic support looks like and how much to spend, the eurozone’s agreement now has the bloc on the right course. As for the UK, that’s a whole can of worms: the country needs to strike trade deals around the world before its European Union-affiliated deal expires next year. The most important among them appears to be with the US: the UK banned Huawei, and now it might soon do the same to TikTok to maintain its special relationship.

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