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It was inevitable | Brexit breaks Britain |

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Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for September 10th in 3:08 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a flat white at Intz48 Coffee Roasters in Azores, Portugal (24°C/75°F ⛈️)

Today's big stories

  1. The tech-focused Nasdaq stock index fell into “correction” territory...
  2. ...But at least one investment giant is skeptical this marks the bursting of tech stocks’ bubble – Read Now
  3. International currency investors think the British pound could fall to its lowest level since 1985
1/3

Fast And Furious

Fast And Furious

What’s Going On Here?

Hasta la vista, baby: after hitting record highs just last month, the Nasdaq Composite index – dominated by major US tech stocks – crunched into a technical “correction” this week.

What Does This Mean?

The Nasdaq had jumped 31% last quarter and another 20% since July, reaching its highest level in history (even when adjusting for inflation). But it fell this week into its fastest-ever correction, dropping more than 10% from that recent peak. There’s nothing particularly special about the double-digit decline, beyond the potential indication of investor pessimism. A more worrying – yet unlikely – threshold would be a 20% drop, which heralds a “bear market”.

The correction might’ve been down to investors’ long-predicted “rotation” out of speculative Big Tech stakes and into economic-growth-reliant “cyclical” and cheap-looking “value” stocks (tweet this). Other major US indexes were dragged down too – and tech’s tumble was likely exaggerated by its prior reliance on investors buying optimistic short-term stock options.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Dude, where’s my Tesla?
The electric carmaker’s stock – a Nasdaq component – has fallen more than 20% in the last few days. That may be due in part to the recent revelation that its shares won’t yet be included in the most influential American stock index of them all. Some $4.3 trillion is indiscriminately invested in S&P 500 stocks via exchange-traded funds, and the expectation was that Tesla would soon get in on the action. Without that advantageous autopilot, investors – who’ve seen Tesla’s share price rise 300% this year – might’ve been minded to sell down stakes and take some profit.

The bigger picture: No stop signs, speed limit.
US stocks bounced back on Wednesday – though long-term investors probably weren’t surprised. According to learned stock historians, a short, sharp selloff following a steep recovery is par for the course as markets settle back down. And according to analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley, company earnings are improving more quickly than expected – likely giving stocks another boost.

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Only A Wobble

What’s Going On Here?

With tech stocks sliding 10% in a matter of days, some investors foresee a repeat of the 2000 dotcom bust. But $1 trillion US investment manager Invesco thinks the market’s foundations aren’t so shaky…

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3/3

Dog Pound

Dog Pound

What’s Going On Here?

With the UK locked in tense negotiations with the European Union (EU) this week regarding the terms of its Brexit, some investors believe the value of the country’s currency could soon fall beneath longstanding lows.

What Does This Mean?

The coronavirus pandemic and its global ramifications have understandably loomed large in investors’ minds this year. But as the December end of the UK’s EU withdrawal “transition period” draws nearer, analysts are increasingly worried about the prospect of a “no-deal” Brexit – or one in which the UK potentially breaks international law. If that happens, investors could ditch riskier global bets; and according to Allianz Global Investors, the pound’s value in US dollars could drop to $1.14 versus $1.30 now – its lowest since 1985.

Other analysts admittedly think that’s an unlikely scenario. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, for example, reckon a deal is more likely than not – and most experts think the pound should increase in value against the dollar next year. Then again, you know what they say about experts

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Bear trap.
A weak currency isn’t all bad news: foreign buyers getting more bang for their buck (or euro, or yuan) could buy more British products, boosting the UK economy. But investors might still be cautious: a seemingly attractive stock market valuation may belie weak post-Brexit UK company earnings growth potential. Those who’d bought British stocks might end up snared in a so-called “value trap”, hoping for a recovery that never comes.

The bigger picture: The lady is a tramp.
It’s not just the UK’s trade policy causing problems. French luxury goods giant LVMH on Wednesday pulled out of its planned $16 billion takeover of American jeweler Tiffany’s, blaming US trade taxes for making business more expensive and a deal less attractive. Tiffany’s now plans to sue to force through the purchase.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance.”

– Alan W. Watts (a British writer and speaker)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Swipe-PO

“How do special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) work, and why do private investors like them?”

– Rohan in London, UK

“SPACs are ‘shell companies’ which exist solely to list on a stock market, raising money from public investors which they then use to buy other, usually private, companies. Historically, investors in a private company ‘exited’ by selling their stakes to another business – a trade sale – or to other investors, either private or public. The latter process typically involves an expensive and lengthy initial public offering. If a private company’s bought by a publicly listed SPAC, however, then the SPAC effectively becomes that company. The value of the SPAC’s existing public shares will reflect that of the private company (or companies) it bought – and the private investors can then simply sell those shares to release cash.”

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