Good morning. THE NBA FINALS BEGIN TODAY. Let’s basketball.
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Photo by Getty Images Sport
Game 1 of the 2020 NBA Finals tips off at 9 p.m. ET on ABC. On one side, you have the Lakers, starring the most famous active player in the world and with the best record in their conference during the regular season. On the other side is the Heat, who came in as a No. 5 seed and absolutely shredded all comers in the East in the playoffs.
Here are the five aspects I’m going to be watching most closely in Game 1 as we watch the series begin to unfold before us.
1. Bam vs. A.D.
Miami went small against the Celtics, with Kelly Olynyk disappearing and Meyers Leonard’s role limited to head cheerleader. L.A. has continued to rely on major contributions from Dwight Howard and to a lesser degree JaVale McGee. I assume Howard will continue to start, at least at the beginning of this series. That will necessarily draw the attention of Bam Adebayo when Miami isn’t in a zone.
But the match-up to watch when it develops is Anthony Davis vs. Adebayo. I mean, duh. Davis has been extremely good all season and in the majority of playoff games. Adebayo has been Miami’s hero over this run. But Bam hasn’t faced a big man this good in the playoffs yet, just as Davis hasn’t faced a big man who can match his athleticism. Both of them excel at both ends, with Bam especially dangerous on the offensive glass and A.D. able to step out and punish opponents from deep. Star vs. star, there’s no hiding any flaws. It should be a tremendous battle.
2. LeBron’s aggression
LeBron James hasn’t shot well on jumpers in the playoffs, and the Lakers are still 12-3. If he starts raining (like he did in the close-out fourth quarter of Game 5 against Denver), it’s game over. Miami has irritating, physical defenders to put on LeBron in Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala, and you can imagine Bam getting some possessions on him as well.
LeBron knows he’s at his best getting downhill, drawing fouls, attacking the rim, spraying kick-outs to his shooters. Yet in the playoffs about 60% of his shots have been jumpers. Is he going to be aggressive trying to put pressure on Butler, Crowder, Iguodala and Adebayo early, or is he going to start the series trying to loosen up the defense by threatening from distance? When a pick and roll gets a favorable switch — a Duncan Robinson or Goran Dragic — will LeBron pull it out to shoot over the Heat or shove it down their throats?
I feel like we know what the answer should be, but LeBron has a certain way of setting up a series that runs counter to that and, you know, it seems to work for him just fine.
3. Jimmy and Dragic vs. the Lakers D
The Lakers’ defense was surprisingly excellent all season, and it’s been wonderful in the playoffs. The Heat, of course, have beaten the hell out of two elite defenses already in Milwaukee and Boston. The Celtics even have better wing defenders in Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown than anyone on the Lakers. Jamal Murray, for one, lit up the Lakers except when LeBron marked him and his nagging injuries flared up.
Jimmy Butler could and should have a huge offensive series. I’m curious to see how much LeBron will guard him early in games — the Lakers don’t want LeBron expending energy chasing Duncan Robinson all over creation, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s height disadvantage in that match-up seems like a problem. Danny Green is the obvious answer for Robinson, but then you’re left with Goran Dragic and Jimmy with KCP and LeBron to cover them (assuming Davis and either Howard or McGee mark Jae Crowder and Bam). I think that means LeBron is going to get a substantial amount of Jimmy time, unless Frank Vogel abandons his centers and slides Rajon Rondo into the starting five to guard Dragic, leaving KCP for Butler, LeBron for Crowder and asking A.D. to take Adebayo.
And all this individual match-up stuff probably doesn’t matter too heavily once they start running action and switching. But how well Butler and Dragic can find the seams and get the Lakers chasing their own tails will be a major factor. Butler and Dragic are at their best drawing fouls, and the Lakers aren’t especially talented at avoiding fouls. So beating L.A. defenders and forcing overreach is a real key here.
4. Who gets the HOLY S—T play?
Anthony Davis hit a buzzer beating, game winning three against Denver. Bam Adebayo blocked Jayson Tatum’s dunk at the rim at the buzzer. Those two plays really, really set the tone for those conference finals series, and they were 50-50 plays at best for the victors.
The amazing thing about live sports is that these types of plays happen, and they are unpredictable and hugely impactful. Someone’s probably going to get at least one “HOLY S—T” play in this series, and that’s going to have a huge impact on who wins.
5. Composure in the Moment
This NBA Finals is hella weird. No huge media presence and scrum. No highly documented travel to the site of the first game. No real pomp and circumstance. That probably means a lot of the superfluous pressure of the atmosphere around the NBA Finals just hasn’t materialized. It’s weird, it’s different.
But the bubble surely feels different now — 20 of the teams are gone. Even though family and friends have been invited, the campus must feel somewhat empty. Both teams had odd trophy ceremonies after their weekend wins — that must make the Finals feel a little more real. These guys are all in their own heads to some degree, and most of them have never been to the Finals. They’ve played big playoff games, big college or international games. The Lakers have a handful of veterans who have been to the Finals and won titles. The Heat have Iguodala and Udonis Haslem. Everyone else — key players with huge roles for L.A. and pretty much the entire Miami rotation — they haven’t experienced anything like this, anything with this much at stake. And while their veteran teammates and coaches will prepare them and demystify the pressure and do everything they can to make it feel like a normal basketball, it won’t.
It can’t. It’s the NBA Finals, the dream these players have fought to achieve their entire lives.
Pressure manifests in strange ways. How will it manifest for these players?
9 p.m. ET, ABC. Let’s go.
(Lakers in 6. I am deeply in love with the Heat, but I picked the Lakers before the season [a year ago!] and before the playoffs, and I will stick with that.)
Angel on Their Shoulder
Game 5 of Sun vs. Aces was extremely rough as the defenses came to play and the teams are entirely worn down. Connecticut jumped out to a massive lead early behind excellent all-around production from (who else?) Alyssa Thomas, but Las Vegas grinded back thanks to MVP A’ja Wilson and some dope two-way play from Angel McCoughtry. Las Vegas is moving on.
Getting Angel in free agency sure as hell paid off in the end.
The Sun were not supposed to be here missing Jonquel Jones for the season and starting the brief season 0-5. Getting this close the WNBA Finals is an enormous achievement, and the Sun are going to be in the title mix next season as well.
The WNBA Finals — Storm vs. Aces — tips off Friday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Links
Big Kevin Arnovitz piece on how the NBA navigated its most difficult season ever.
Haley O’Shaughnessy with the biggest offseason questions for the Nuggets and Celtics.
Andrew Sharp on the legend of Udonis Haslem.
Uh Candace Parker won WNBA Defensive Player of the Year (determined by media) but was left off both WNBA All-Defense teams (determined by coaches). This has never happened in the WNBA or NBA before. I think it’s a key bit of Candace Parker lore: for whatever reason, those within the women’s basketball power structure (WNBA and USA Basketball) dismiss or diminish Parker’s impact in spite of wide acclaim from the media and fans.
Jovan Buha in The Athletic on what led to the Clippers dismissing Doc Rivers. Playing Montrezl Harrell over Ivica Zubac is one thing, but pinning weird locker room dynamics given this bizarre set of player personalities seems unfair for the Clippers to be saying. ($)
The Storm’s Sami Whitcomb left the wubble right before the Finals to be with her wife, who is giving birth to their first child in Australia. What’s that mean for Seattle?
Kelly Dwyer’s Finals preview. ($)
Fair warning: this is a link to Playboy.com, where there is an illuminating Q&A with Liz Cambage about COVID-19, her sexuality and her future. Again: it’s Playboy.com. There are photos. Don’t get yourself fired.
Dana O’Neil talks to Doris Burke for The Athletic. ($)
Be excellent to each other.
