This is … one of the games of the season?

Per Stats Perform, Aston Villa — YES, ASTON FREAKIN VILLA — have the best expected-goal differential (per 90 minutes) in the league right now. They’re at plus-0.91. Second? It’s Chelsea at plus-0.82. Villa do it with the league’s second-best attack (by xG) and third-best defense, while Chelsea’s defense is tops in the Prem, and their attack sits fourth. In terms of chance creation and suppression, these are the two most balanced teams in the league; no one else ranks in the top four on both sides of the ball.

Now, the side of the ball to focus on here is, shockingly, Villa’s attack vs. Chelsea’s defense. Despite all the money thrown at attackers over the past two years, Frank Lampard’s team has allowed a league-low 0.09 xG per shot along with a stingy 9.67 shots per game (fourth-best in the league). Villa, meanwhile, LEAD THE LEAGUE in shots per game (16.5) AND passes into the penalty area per game (18.31). On top of that, their average possession moves up the field at 1.68 meters per second, which makes them the second-fastest attack in the UK. This is not supposed to happen! Despite lightning-quick possessions and just a general lack of overall possession — barely over 50 percent — they’re third in the league in share of final-third passes per match behind City and Liverpool, while also, you know, out-shooting the last two title-winners and moving the ball into the box more often, too. So, why the rise from shoulda-been-relegated to, uh, world-class attacking team? It’s the Calf God. Per the DAVIES model, Jack Grealish has been worth a league-best 6.07 goals above average this year — nearly double any of his teammates.

As for Chelsea? Stop worrying about Timo Werner. He’s only scored four goals so far, but he’s been worth 5.6 goals above average according to DAVIES — the third-best mark in the league. Despite the sparkling underlying numbers, they’ve lost three of their last four. Less Timo — on the bench today — is not the solution.